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With COVID raging through our country and changing how population will grow/change this year, how will population change this year throughout the country? Immigration will be basically flat (Maybe a net of 250k? If that?) which is a lifeline to growth in many major cities and states. In March/April we saw hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers and City Dwellers leave for the suburbs and the South.
How do you expect states to grow this year? Are you expecting a huge drop in population in hard hit cities and states, that have been unseen? Will some southern metropolitan areas see HUGE growth? What is your take on what will happen demographically?
I expect: (As of 8/1/2020)
Big Gainers
Florida: +250,000
North Carolina: +130,000
Georgia: +110,000
South Carolina: +75,000
Gainers
Texas: +200,000
New Hampshire: +15,000
Maine: +20,000
Losers
Connecticut: -40,000
Michigan: -50,000
California: -75,000
Massachusetts: -80,000
New Jersey: -150,000
New York: -250,000 (very variable, could be as much as 400k, could be no loss at all..)
How do you think big cities will take this hit this year?
2019 Population: 328.3 million
How about the country itself?
Net Migration 2020: +300,000
Natural Growth 2020: +650,000 (900,000 in 2019, COVID Deaths ~200,000, Lowered Fertility throughout the later part of the year, continued drop in births)
2020 est: 329.4 million
Last edited by masssachoicetts; 07-31-2020 at 09:15 AM..
South Carolina will grow because of people seeing it as cheaper than other states in the Northeast. I think coastal metro areas such as Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, Savannah and Jacksonville will all gain population.
Colorado will definitely gain, but I'm unsure how much. Probably as much as before, so I'd expect at least 5.8 million from the 2020 census, up from 5.0 million in 2010.
Mountain towns in Colorado with many second homes have also gained a lot, relatively. Places like Aspen saw a huge surge in school enrollment from second-homeowning parents who can now work remote full time deciding to stay.
Not sure if Florida is going to grow 200,000 considering the national scare about their handling of Covid
GA and NC may grow over 100K but I'm not so sure. Texas could gain more than expected as well.
Texas still going strong. I see DFW surpassing 8 million in the next year or 2. Houston continuing to grow as well as Austin & San Antonio. Virus or not people are still moving and having kids.
I actually see the Midwest and Plains states flattening their outward migration in the coming years due to a lower cost of living and in many cases a far lower risk of pandemic negatives seen in the the population booming locations in the South/Southeast and big cities in the Northeast or on the West Coast.
I dont think people are leaving CA due to Covid-19. What a strange assertion imo.
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