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I read in another thread a poster speculating on whether or not sunbelt cities are sustainable due to strains on infrastructure (specifically transportation).
I thought about the large amount of growth that sunbelt cities have undergone the past few decades. And even with all that growth, the sunbelt cities still have large amounts of cheap land surrounding them.
But often times the more wealth that is accumulated within an area, the larger the increases in costs of all types. The more people there are, the more they expect certain amenities and services provided by the local governments, which in turn raises taxes. People are pushed out further and further out which will most likely further strain the area's infrastructure even more which would increase costs again.
The sunbelt cities boasts a great COL, which is a huge draw to many of the people migrating to them. But will that rise dramatically in the next few decades and become more even with the West and East coasts? Increase moderately? Or will their COL maintain their current status?
Last edited by tenken627; 08-11-2010 at 02:38 PM..
I would suspect some moderate growth (or a slowingf of the current growth rate in the larger metros), there is still much cheap land but the infrastructure will get more costly and desire to live closer to the core will also drive up costs.
To me two factors will determine the continued growth, one are they able to continue to attract the new businesses/jobs to support the growth and two how expensive the new infrastructure is coupled with the cost to maintain the aging infrastructure. States like TX are very pro business so that is helpful. A hiccup in growth also puts their construction at the risk of unemployment so it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
I honestly can see some softening in the larger areas and maybe excelerated growth in the smaller areas, maybe other areas of texas and places like RDU and Charlotte will speed up their growth with more cheap land closer to the core, NC is also pretty business friendly, not as much as TX though
I would suspect some moderate growth, there is still much cheap land but the infrastructure will get more costly and desire to live closer to the core will also drive up costs.
To me two factors will determine the continued growth, one are they able to continue to attract the new businesses/jobs to support the growth and two how expensive the new infrastructure is coupled with the cost to maintain the aging infrastructure. States like TX are very pro business so that is helpful. A hiccup in growth also puts their construction at the risk of unemployment so it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
I honestly can see some softening in the larger areas and maybe excelerated growth in the smaller areas, maybe other of texas and places like RDU and Charlotte will speed up their growth with more cheap land closer to the core, NC is also pretty business friendly, not as much as TX though
I do think that the sunbelt area as a whole will continue to grow no matter what.
I was specifically wondering about the COL in the cities and the immediate areas around them, and not the actual growth itself.
I do know that the sunbelt cities are attracting young, well-educated professionals and these types of people are known to greatly increase costs for everyone else. Affluent, and with a willingness to spend, they can outbid many others and drive up market value. It's no secret that the most well-educated places all over the world usually cost much more than other areas. A large upper-middle class can skyrocket home values throughout the whole city moreso than a handful of millionaires/billionaires can.
I do think that the sunbelt area as a whole will continue to grow no matter what.
I was specifically wondering about the COL in the cities and the immediate areas around them, and not the actual growth itself.
I do know that the sunbelt cities are attracting young, well-educated professionals but these types of people are known to greatly increase costs for everyone else. Affluent, and with a willingness to spend, they can outbid many others and drive up market value. It's no secret that the most well-educated places all over the world usually cost much more than other areas. A large upper-middle class can skyrocket home values throughout the whole city moreso than a handful of millionaires/billionaires can.
Understood and agree to a certain extent, but the biggest drivers on COL are real estate and taxes, both resultant from development and cost there of coupled with increased values associated with a desire to live in place and the relative supply and demand
Understood and agree to a certain extent, but the biggest drivers on COL are real estate and taxes, both resultant from development and cost there of coupled with increased values associated with a desire to live in place and the relative supply and demand
Even if homes are springing in large amounts outwards, the costs of homes in the most accessible areas to employment and recreation should jump even higher like you say. Location, location location. Increase in development on outwards cheap land should theoretically increase home prices inwards (as long as there is still overall growth).
But eventually there is a strain on infrastructure from building outwards so much. While this may not halt growth, it will have a great impact on prices.
Even if homes are springing in large amounts outwards, the costs of homes in the most accessible areas to employment and recreation should jump even higher. Location, location location. Increase in development on outwards cheap land should theoretically increase home prices inwards (as long as there is still overall growth).
Also agree - unless they continue to attract employers and job centers further out, thought at some distances to mjor amenities and things of cultural significance also make this desireable for certain types of employers, then you likely attract lessor paying jobs like call centers etc.
I do agree, there will be continued infill and this will drive up costs, both because some will require razing of existing infrastructure and/or premiums on locations. The lower COL is not sustainable long term in the current capacity
Also agree - unless they continue to attract employers and job centers further out, thought at some distances to mjor amenities and things of cultural significance also make this desireable for certain types of employers, then you likely attract lessor paying jobs like call centers etc.
I do agree, there will be continued infill and this will drive up costs, both because some will require razing of existing infrastructure and/or premiums on locations. The lower COL is not sustainable long term in the current capacity
I think so too. Especially since most of the sunbelt cities are now working on their downtowns (with people actually wanting to go downtown in the future), the surrounding area should increase property values (and the land value itself) and should have a ripple effect outwards.
I think so too. Especially since most of the sunbelt cities are now working on their downtowns (with people actually wanting to go downtown in the future), the surrounding area should increase property values (and the land value itself) and should have a ripple effect outwards.
Not to mention the general US economy and real estate market is likely also keeping all costs down. It appears Atlanta started to experience creeping real estate prices already before the whole market crashed, I also read that the areas inside the Houston beltway were also creeping at a much faster rate than the overall metro, so some signs are already there. But all in all I think it will help the metros, Atlanta again has had some very interesting developments in their core over the last ten years.
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