Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
A look into the future of America
by Jeff Ganaposki
It's 2035, and I was checking my journal. Things sure have changed since 2000!
In post petroleum U.S.A., only 35 million cars are still on the road, instead of 232 million (85% drop from 2000). Going to the mall to shop is a fairy tale told by grandma to entertain the grandchildren, who have never seen a shopping mall. People rely upon their computer links to access goods and services. Retailers rely upon delivery services to serve their customers who no longer can afford the fuel nor the vehicles to patronize them. Residential yards are no longer resource devouring artificial pastures, but utilized for gardening and orchards. The mainline railroads have all been electrified, and are vital to the prosperity of the nation, transporting necessities across the land. All major cities and most minor cities have constructed networks of electric powered urban rail. Many follow the old rights of way, that were surveyed in the 19th century. Track installation is up to 327,000 km.
In the period known as the "Bad Years", the nation went through a series of upheavals, starting with the collapse of the speculation driven housing market, which brought down usurers. Investments evaporated. Trillions of "dollar bill" valued assets were vaporized. Money starved economies broke down, unable to trade. As the world money markets contended with the collapse, international trade was choked off. Many nations trapped in a money centric economy had huge populations of unemployed people who, in desperation, assaulted the public institutions. Governments collapsed, reformed, collapsed again... for 19 long years.
The united States didn't escape the chaos. The social safety net was blown apart like a piano through a spider web. Rural agricultural areas were more fortunate - they had a tradition of productive labor and access to a local food supply. The urban areas linked by transportation also fared better than expected - especially port cities. They were able to maintain trade while the rail networks were electrified and expanded. The worst hit areas were the suburban enclaves, wholly dependent upon automobiles, and too distant from cities and rail transport.
Air transport was severely reduced as petroleum supplies were rationed to support mechanized agriculture - vital to prevent starvation. The skies no longer had contrails of high flying jet aircraft. And economies dependent upon airports suffered greatly, as the cost for jet fuel was just too high.
Growth industries of the 21st century are urban renewal, as high population density development replaces the sprawl of the automobile culture; alternative energy development, including solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal, as well as biofuels. Local production has replaced imports as the major source of the necessities of life. The manufacture of machines and tooling geared for micro factories is very popular. And most surprising, the magnitude shift in agriculture labor. The vast increase in gardening has effectively made agriculture the #1 activity in America.
Clothing manufacturers have shifted from ephemeral styles to durable, mundane clothing. Bib overhauls made with kevlar reinforcement are quite popular with the lads and lassies. Decentralized production has replaced the transportation dependent "cheap foreign labor" sources.
The initial collapse of the Federal government followed the announcement that interest payments were suspended on the public debt, in 2010. Suddenly, no one would invest in government bonds. And without deficit financing, the politicians tried tax increases. When that triggered tax revolts, the government blustered, but did nothing. Distribution of socialist benefits and entitlements dried up, as Congress tried to ration their dwindling supply of revenues. The Great Recall of all troops from foreign bases, was ordered in 2011, and the unWar in Afghanistan was abandoned soon thereafter. As part of the economic collapse, and drop in worldwide transportation, narcotics smuggling also dropped off the cliff. This had a devastating effect on the finances of drug producers and distributors.
The States were left to their own devices, to deal with their own problems. A popular joke was "Let's call Homeland Security - I feel insecure!" The federal payroll shrank by 95% in 2012. The U.S. Postal Service suspended daily mail delivery that year. If you wanted your mail, you had to pick it up at the post office - if it was still open.
The second event that triggered chaos was the Solar geomagnetic storm of 2012. The current surge knocked out the power grid for the northwest, leaving 1/3 of the country without centralized power. All homes dependent upon electric power for their operation became very unpleasant. The primary transformers burned out by the surge, required replacement, and that took a decade for all units to be brought on line.
In the initial panic caused by the power outage, many public and private institutions were rendered inoperable. The worst was the prison system. Prison guards abandoned the prisons, outnumbered by the felons, and unable to manage without electricity. Prisoners found ways to escape, and soon, roving bands of outlaws were marauding across the nation. The inability for the government to effectively deal with them, culminated in a collapse of the State governments. Local militia bands clashed with the outlaws, with mixed results. It is rumored that outlaw gangs still maintain strongholds in various locations in the blackout zone. No reliable reports are forthcoming from those areas. We pray for them, to this day.
Things are much different, and yet things are much the same. Gossip still passes faster than ever. Folks are still absorbed by the daily chores of child rearing, and vocation. Agriculture has become a popular topic of everyone's conversation. Periodic famines and bad harvests plague various communities. We try to help out, sparing what we can, to help them till the next harvest. Sometimes, we can't afford to. Church attendance is up, and folks are praying a lot more. It's no longer fashionable to sneer at piety. Even the most stubborn Atheists are overheard uttering cries to God.
A central tenet of this argument of a post-Federal USA is that without gasoline and petroleum products, the system would collapse. That would be the case if people weren't relentless with their innovation of non-petrol based transportation. Can anyone say, diesel engines? How about waste vegetable oil? Solar, electric, and biodiesel are already making inroads. Just go to the West Coast, you'll see ... . Even aerospace corporations like Boeing and Airbus are making huge strides in biofuelled aircraft. In particular interest are controlled algae pools, where the controlled environment, coupled with controlled diets, provide algae ample room to produce natural oils.
Of more concern, though, are the big oil firms who will stop at nothing to prevent the decline and reap the money that the little pigs feed on. Other corporate fatcats who prey on the populace with fiat money systems are also a concern.
In the end this article in my opinion short changes the American people for their ability to innovate. Other cultures have intelligent people too who would not bother just wallowing in despair and wait for the "inevitable".
A look into the future of America
by Jeff Ganaposki
It's 2035, and I was checking my journal. Things sure have changed since 2000!
In post petroleum U.S.A., only 35 million cars are still on the road, instead of 232 million (85% drop from 2000). Going to the mall to shop is a fairy tale told by grandma to entertain the grandchildren, who have never seen a shopping mall. People rely upon their computer links to access goods and services. Retailers rely upon delivery services to serve their customers who no longer can afford the fuel nor the vehicles to patronize them. Residential yards are no longer resource devouring artificial pastures, but utilized for gardening and orchards. The mainline railroads have all been electrified, and are vital to the prosperity of the nation, transporting necessities across the land. All major cities and most minor cities have constructed networks of electric powered urban rail. Many follow the old rights of way, that were surveyed in the 19th century. Track installation is up to 327,000 km.
In the period known as the "Bad Years", the nation went through a series of upheavals, starting with the collapse of the speculation driven housing market, which brought down usurers. Investments evaporated. Trillions of "dollar bill" valued assets were vaporized. Money starved economies broke down, unable to trade. As the world money markets contended with the collapse, international trade was choked off. Many nations trapped in a money centric economy had huge populations of unemployed people who, in desperation, assaulted the public institutions. Governments collapsed, reformed, collapsed again... for 19 long years.
The united States didn't escape the chaos. The social safety net was blown apart like a piano through a spider web. Rural agricultural areas were more fortunate - they had a tradition of productive labor and access to a local food supply. The urban areas linked by transportation also fared better than expected - especially port cities. They were able to maintain trade while the rail networks were electrified and expanded. The worst hit areas were the suburban enclaves, wholly dependent upon automobiles, and too distant from cities and rail transport.
Air transport was severely reduced as petroleum supplies were rationed to support mechanized agriculture - vital to prevent starvation. The skies no longer had contrails of high flying jet aircraft. And economies dependent upon airports suffered greatly, as the cost for jet fuel was just too high.
Growth industries of the 21st century are urban renewal, as high population density development replaces the sprawl of the automobile culture; alternative energy development, including solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal, as well as biofuels. Local production has replaced imports as the major source of the necessities of life. The manufacture of machines and tooling geared for micro factories is very popular. And most surprising, the magnitude shift in agriculture labor. The vast increase in gardening has effectively made agriculture the #1 activity in America.
Clothing manufacturers have shifted from ephemeral styles to durable, mundane clothing. Bib overhauls made with kevlar reinforcement are quite popular with the lads and lassies. Decentralized production has replaced the transportation dependent "cheap foreign labor" sources.
The initial collapse of the Federal government followed the announcement that interest payments were suspended on the public debt, in 2010. Suddenly, no one would invest in government bonds. And without deficit financing, the politicians tried tax increases. When that triggered tax revolts, the government blustered, but did nothing. Distribution of socialist benefits and entitlements dried up, as Congress tried to ration their dwindling supply of revenues. The Great Recall of all troops from foreign bases, was ordered in 2011, and the unWar in Afghanistan was abandoned soon thereafter. As part of the economic collapse, and drop in worldwide transportation, narcotics smuggling also dropped off the cliff. This had a devastating effect on the finances of drug producers and distributors.
The States were left to their own devices, to deal with their own problems. A popular joke was "Let's call Homeland Security - I feel insecure!" The federal payroll shrank by 95% in 2012. The U.S. Postal Service suspended daily mail delivery that year. If you wanted your mail, you had to pick it up at the post office - if it was still open.
The second event that triggered chaos was the Solar geomagnetic storm of 2012. The current surge knocked out the power grid for the northwest, leaving 1/3 of the country without centralized power. All homes dependent upon electric power for their operation became very unpleasant. The primary transformers burned out by the surge, required replacement, and that took a decade for all units to be brought on line.
In the initial panic caused by the power outage, many public and private institutions were rendered inoperable. The worst was the prison system. Prison guards abandoned the prisons, outnumbered by the felons, and unable to manage without electricity. Prisoners found ways to escape, and soon, roving bands of outlaws were marauding across the nation. The inability for the government to effectively deal with them, culminated in a collapse of the State governments. Local militia bands clashed with the outlaws, with mixed results. It is rumored that outlaw gangs still maintain strongholds in various locations in the blackout zone. No reliable reports are forthcoming from those areas. We pray for them, to this day.
Things are much different, and yet things are much the same. Gossip still passes faster than ever. Folks are still absorbed by the daily chores of child rearing, and vocation. Agriculture has become a popular topic of everyone's conversation. Periodic famines and bad harvests plague various communities. We try to help out, sparing what we can, to help them till the next harvest. Sometimes, we can't afford to. Church attendance is up, and folks are praying a lot more. It's no longer fashionable to sneer at piety. Even the most stubborn Atheists are overheard uttering cries to God.
A central tenet of this argument of a post-Federal USA is that without gasoline and petroleum products, the system would collapse. That would be the case if people weren't relentless with their innovation of non-petrol based transportation.
Did you not note that 35 million automobiles were still in operation?
I did not specify which fuel or source of power was in use.
On the other hand, electrified mainline railroads and electric urban rail would provide 95% of the mass transit needs to make up for the loss of 85% of current automobiles, with only 3% more electrical load.
Transferring 100% of inter-city truck traffic to electrified railroads, plus electrifying all of the existing rail traffic, would take about 100 TWh/year or 2.3% of total US electrical demand.
In the end this article in my opinion short changes the American people for their ability to innovate. Other cultures have intelligent people too who would not bother just wallowing in despair and wait for the "inevitable".
You probably missed reading: "Growth industries of the 21st century ... alternative energy development, including solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal, as well as biofuels."
http://planoconservancy.org/content/view/13/2/ (broken link)
The interurban electric railway for the entire country totaled approximately 18,000 miles (1917).
In 1909, one reporter claimed that one could ride electric rail from Maine to the Rockies without ever riding on a mainline (Steam powered) railway.
Sounds to me like that reporter has overstated some facts. He may have meant he could ride rail powered by electric equivalant to the distance from Maine to the rockies, but those rails he was referring to were mostly urban rails.
Go back 25 years and find a prediction for 2009. Pretty laughable. Very little has changed since 1985. Almost nothing that was predicted has come true. Same for this piece of foolishness. If a person stepped out of a 1985 time machine today, there would be no surprises. Except maybe a lot of people talking on cell phones.
In 1909, one reporter claimed that one could ride electric rail from Maine to the Rockies without ever riding on a mainline (Steam powered) railway.
Sounds to me like that reporter has overstated some facts. He may have meant he could ride rail powered by electric equivalant to the distance from Maine to the rockies, but those rails he was referring to were mostly urban rails.
I was surprised, too, when I read that. I wish I would have bookmarked it. Sigh. 20-20 hindsight.
However, interurban electric rail did reach from the Rockies eastward, to Maine. As noted before, the interurbans had 18,000 miles of city to city track by the 1920s. But the electrified rail transit systems were "knocked out" by petroleum interests who effectively campaigned against electric rail from the 1920s, onward. Mainline railroads were mostly steam operated until as late as the 1950s, when diesel-electric locomotives gained dominance. The few electric ROWs were dismantled, in favor of "cheap and plentiful" petroleum. (AMTRAK is the exception, due to laws requiring electric powered locomotives operated in NYC tunnels.)
To imagine what we might have had, if electric rail was not deliberately eradicated, one needs to examine countries in Europe and Asia, where imported petroleum was too expensive.
Energy efficiency comparisons. (http://strickland.ca/efficiency.html - broken link)
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
