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Old 10-26-2015, 08:00 PM
 
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Sorry, this thread originally ended in Automotive somehow. Fixing that.

I was reading on population growth and here's what I do not understand.

1. Current USA mortality rate is approximately 2.6 million people a year.
FastStats - Deaths and Mortality

2. Current USA population growth is roughly 0.7% a year which adds up to about 2.2 million and declining
US Population Growth Rate by Year

3. Current USA population is roughly 320 million people.

Even at a glance, USA population is declining in its numbers, as mortality is higher than growth.


Then how did it happen that USA is on the list of the 10 fastest population growth countries in the world, along with say Nigeria?

(1) India 467 million projected population increase
(2) Nigeria 231 million
(3) Pakistan 101 million
(4) Tanzania 93 million
(5) United States 93 million
(6) DR Congo 83 million
(7) Ethiopia 62 million
(8) Philippines 62 million
(9) Uganda 61 million
(10) Kenya 56 million

10 Countries With the Largest Projected Population Growth: American Exceptionalism*|*Howard Steven Friedman
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Old 10-26-2015, 08:03 PM
 
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And it's not immigration, not enough:

Annual Limits for Immigrant Visas

  • The annual limit for total number of legal immigrants is 675,000. This is the maximum allotment of visa numbers per year, covering both foreign nationals who receive immigrant visas at consular offices abroad, and those who adjust status within the United States.
    • 675,000 is a "flexible" cap, with certain categories of immigrants exempted from the limit (for example, immediate relatives of U.S. Citizens and certain special immigrants)
    • The annual limit is divided into three main categories: family sponsored, employment-based, and diversity visa
    • 675,000 = 480,000 + 140,000 + 55,000 (see below)
    Visa Bulletin: Immigrant Visa Annual Limits and Caps

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Old 10-26-2015, 08:45 PM
 
Location: Florida
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The US population has more than doubled in my lifetime. Like Monty Python, I ain't dead yet.
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Old 10-26-2015, 09:14 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ukrkoz View Post
Even at a glance, USA population is declining in its numbers, as mortality is higher than growth.
Positive growth means the population is increasing. Growth is the net change. Growth = Births - Mortality + Immigration - Emigration.
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Old 10-26-2015, 10:13 PM
 
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Well sure.

Ok.
(-) 2.6 million mortality - (+) 2.2 million fertility = (-) 400 000 population growth. That not calculating in STEADY decline in fertility that shows no trends to go up.
(-) 400 000 population growth + (possible) 675 000 immigration = (+) 275 000 population increase.
Emigration is unknown, no data found. But I know that many US citizens retire in say Latin America. Or Spain. Or France.
Let's say, this blogger here:
How Many American Retirees Live Overseas?*|*Kathleen Peddicord
Says it's between 1.4 and 2.4 million retirees abroad.
I'll knock it down to 800 000 just for the safety sake.
Hence, 275 000 population increase - 800 000 those who left = (-) half a million.

Once again, how do we put out claimed 93 000 000 population increase?
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Old 10-26-2015, 10:24 PM
 
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SO I really started playing with this and found that, eg, #2 on the ten list, Nigeria, has the highest in the world fertility. Right above 8. (vs USA 1.7, what is significantly lower than population sustainable 2.1 rate)
But!! Nigerian mortality rate is 50 (!) times higher than that of the USA. 0.6 vs 32 per 100 population 15 to 60.
Nigeria - Mortality - Adult mortality rate

So how are THEY supposed to put out all the millions, if their mortality rate is clearly outperforming the high fertility one? And I doubt immigrants flood their country in millions to compensate.
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Old 10-27-2015, 07:31 AM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

Over $104,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum and additional contests are planned
 
Location: Western Massachusetts
45,983 posts, read 53,631,642 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ukrkoz View Post
Well sure.

Ok.
(-) 2.6 million mortality - (+) 2.2 million fertility = (-) 400 000 population growth. That not calculating in STEADY decline in fertility that shows no trends to go up.
(-) 400 000 population growth + (possible) 675 000 immigration = (+) 275 000 population increase.
Emigration is unknown, no data found. But I know that many US citizens retire in say Latin America. Or Spain. Or France.
Let's say, this blogger here:
How Many American Retirees Live Overseas?*|*Kathleen Peddicord
Says it's between 1.4 and 2.4 million retirees abroad.
I'll knock it down to 800 000 just for the safety sake.
Hence, 275 000 population increase - 800 000 those who left = (-) half a million.

Once again, how do we put out claimed 93 000 000 population increase?
Where are you getting 2.2 million fertility? 2009 had 4.1 million births. Emigration can be from deportation, or just immigrants returning home. For example, net immigration from Mexico was about zero for several recent years bit of course it was positive for many other countries
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Old 10-27-2015, 10:08 AM
 
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I think links to numbers are provided. Then it's simple calculation.

Fertility rate has to stay at 2.1 births per a female, for a particular population to stay at same level. US fertility rate is much lower than that. It is also on continuous decline.
If mortality rate is higher than fertility rate, country population is declining. This is a growing issue in say Germany, where fertility rate is very low, much much below sustainable population level.

I also found a flaw in my calculation. I assumed expatriates as yearly quota, while it's simple hypothetical number of people not living inside the country. It's minor for the discussion.
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Old 10-27-2015, 10:15 AM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

Over $104,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum and additional contests are planned
 
Location: Western Massachusetts
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ukrkoz View Post
I think links to numbers are provided. Then it's simple calculation.
You haven't provided a link to births / year. I checked twice.

Quote:
Fertility rate has to stay at 2.1 births per a female, for a particular population to stay at same level. US fertility rate is much lower than that. It is also on continuous decline.
Fertility rate projects over a woman's entire lifetime. To get number of births, you need the number of women of child-bearing age. A fertility rate below 2.1 can mean more births than deaths currently depending on the age distribution.
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Old 10-27-2015, 10:58 AM
 
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Ukrkoz, the population growth figure is not the birth rate. It is already the answer to your question. Birth rate - death rate. You seem to just be misunderstanding the term.
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