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Old 02-12-2012, 09:25 PM
 
Location: Georgia, USA
23,399 posts, read 28,242,738 times
Reputation: 28974

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Quote:
Originally Posted by plwhit View Post
Students are the most gullible portion of society aren't they...

We all see how statisticians can manipulate numbers to mean whatever they want don't we?
I don't think students are gullible. Smokers sure can try to wish away the dangers of smoking, though.

10 Dumb Ideas About Smoking Cigarettes - Stop Smoking Center - Everyday Health

 
Old 02-12-2012, 09:30 PM
 
Location: Staten Island, NY
6,480 posts, read 6,198,201 times
Reputation: 6959
Car exhaust is far worse. You burn your lips much more trying to suck the smoke from a Chevy Impala.
 
Old 02-12-2012, 09:30 PM
 
35,108 posts, read 40,212,035 times
Reputation: 62049
Car exhaust if you have the garage door closed while the vehicle is running.
 
Old 02-12-2012, 10:06 PM
 
Location: On the Ohio River in Western, KY
3,388 posts, read 5,742,060 times
Reputation: 3343
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzy_q2010 View Post
Why do you think there iare no hard data? If people were going to make up numbers, why not make up even worse numbers?

The statistics are generated from deaths from illnesses that are caused by outdoor air pollution (mainly asthma and respiratory diseases) and deaths from the illnesses that smokers get in higher numbers than people who do not smoke, such as lung and other cancers, chronic obstructive lung disease (emphysema), and cardiovascular disease.

A smoker has a 50% chance of dying from a disease caused by his smoking and will die on average 14 years sooner than someone who does not smoke.

Statisticians can count these illnesses. That is where the numbers come from.

Satan delights equally in statistics and in quoting scripture.... ~H.G. Wells, The Undying Fire

Statistics are like women; mirrors of purest virtue and truth, or like whores to use as one pleases. ~Theodor Billroth


Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say. ~William W. Watt


Evan Esar Statistics: The only science that enables different experts using the same figures to draw different conclusions.

Aaron Levenstein: Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.
 
Old 02-12-2012, 10:34 PM
 
15,924 posts, read 17,413,476 times
Reputation: 7641
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzy_q2010 View Post
I believe we are talking about carbon monoxide and cars vs. cigarettes, not asthma.
No, YOU brought up the subject about carbon monoxide, the OP didn't.

Whats the matter? What's good for the goose isn't good enough for the gander?
 
Old 02-12-2012, 10:36 PM
 
15,924 posts, read 17,413,476 times
Reputation: 7641
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzy_q2010 View Post
I don't think students are gullible. Smokers sure can try to wish away the dangers of smoking, though.

10 Dumb Ideas About Smoking Cigarettes - Stop Smoking Center - Everyday Health
You don't, I do, mox nix....

Sorry, only know non-smokers who sure can try to wish away the dangers of people who smoke...

Must really frost your buns that people are doing something you don't approve of...

10 Dumb things about people who know what's best for everyone else - KnowItAllCentral - Everyday Stupidity

Last edited by plwhit; 02-12-2012 at 10:49 PM..
 
Old 02-12-2012, 11:03 PM
 
Location: Georgia, USA
23,399 posts, read 28,242,738 times
Reputation: 28974
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cav Scout wife View Post
Satan delights equally in statistics and in quoting scripture.... ~H.G. Wells, The Undying Fire

Statistics are like women; mirrors of purest virtue and truth, or like whores to use as one pleases. ~Theodor Billroth


Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say. ~William W. Watt


Evan Esar Statistics: The only science that enables different experts using the same figures to draw different conclusions.

Aaron Levenstein: Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.



Smoking is one of the leading causes of statistics.
Fletcher Knebel

Smoking Statistics General Facts
 
Old 02-13-2012, 02:58 AM
 
15,924 posts, read 17,413,476 times
Reputation: 7641
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzy_q2010 View Post
Smoking is one of the leading causes of statistics.
Fletcher Knebel

Smoking Statistics General Facts
Yogoy, now here is a really neutral news source if I ever saw one...
 
Old 02-13-2012, 04:30 AM
 
39,451 posts, read 40,762,330 times
Reputation: 16253
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzy_q2010 View Post
Why do you think there iare no hard data? If people were going to make up numbers, why not make up even worse numbers?
Well first of all I rarely ask a question in a forum I don't know the answer too.

When I say hard data their is no way to determine if someone died from second hand smoke. You might have someone that drinks a fifth of vodka each day , eats nothing but chicken wings, no exercise and is exposed to second hand smoke...... what kills them? These studies are estimates, yes?

How is it they arrive at that number?

For example you'll often hear claims like "80,000 asthma cases, 40,000 heart attacks....." etc are caused by outdoor air pollutants. They often use a linear dose assessment to arrive at these numbers. Every particle of pollution is assumed to be equally dangerous regardless of total exposure.

For example if we do a study to obtain hard data and have 10 people step off a 20 foot cliff we might come up with a result that 5 of them die from this fall. From that they will extrapolate across an entire population. If 240 of them step off a 1 inch cliff 5 still die, 480 off a 1/2 inch cliff and 5 still die......

So my question really becomes is how many of these smoking studies that cite these huge numbers is using the linear dose asseessmsnt method to produce these numbers?
 
Old 02-13-2012, 11:56 AM
 
Location: Georgia, USA
23,399 posts, read 28,242,738 times
Reputation: 28974
Quote:
Originally Posted by thecoalman View Post
Well first of all I rarely ask a question in a forum I don't know the answer too.

When I say hard data their is no way to determine if someone died from second hand smoke. You might have someone that drinks a fifth of vodka each day , eats nothing but chicken wings, no exercise and is exposed to second hand smoke...... what kills them? These studies are estimates, yes?

How is it they arrive at that number?

For example you'll often hear claims like "80,000 asthma cases, 40,000 heart attacks....." etc are caused by outdoor air pollutants. They often use a linear dose assessment to arrive at these numbers. Every particle of pollution is assumed to be equally dangerous regardless of total exposure.

For example if we do a study to obtain hard data and have 10 people step off a 20 foot cliff we might come up with a result that 5 of them die from this fall. From that they will extrapolate across an entire population. If 240 of them step off a 1 inch cliff 5 still die, 480 off a 1/2 inch cliff and 5 still die......

So my question really becomes is how many of these smoking studies that cite these huge numbers is using the linear dose assessment method to produce these numbers?
None of them.

See here for how air pollution studies are done:

PAPA-SAN Study design

For a viewpoint on the 400,000 + smoking related deaths per year:

A Critical Assessment of "Lies, Damned Lies, & 400,000 Smoking-Related Deaths" by Robert Levy and Rosalind Marimont Published in Regulation,* Fall 1998 > Publications > ACSH

The studies on smoking actually are done with the same methods that air pollution studies are done.

Here is the earliest study, Pearl, 1938:

Premature Smoker Death Rates

Start with 100,000 smokers, 100,000 light smokers, and 100,000 heavy smokers. By age 65, 57,018 of the non-smokers will still be alive, 52,082 of the light smokers, and 38,328 of the heavy smokers.

How did Pearl come up with theses numbers? He studied over 7000 smokers. The numbers are then standardized to make them easier to compare.

Another study:

Mortality in relation to smoking: 50 years' observations on male British doctors

This study followed over 34,000 male British doctors for 50 years. It looked at what they died from and the age at which they died. It looked at what happened if they quit smoking.

The Women's health Initiative Study looked at 79,000 American women from 1993 to 1998.

Women

It shows a link between smoking, second hand smoke, and breast cancer.

And smoking and aortic aneurysm:

Aortic Aneurysm - Conditions and Diagnoses - Women's Heart Health - Brigham and Women's Hospital

It also shows other smoking risks.

So, you see, the numbers are derived from observation of real people. They are not made up just to annoy smokers. They should scare you, though.
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