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We've decided to fully isolate now. I usually go to the Y 3 days a week, but decided that that is just plain dumb at this point. I can find ways to exercise at home. Church was about 50% yesterday, and I suspect it will soon be canceled. Hopefully, canceling everything will bring this to an end sooner.
We've decided to fully isolate now. I usually go to the Y 3 days a week, but decided that that is just plain dumb at this point. I can find ways to exercise at home. Church was about 50% yesterday, and I suspect it will soon be canceled. Hopefully, canceling everything will bring this to an end sooner.
Stock market going to tumble today. Australian market down almost 10%. Headed toward recession quickly. For the first time, I am concerned about the reactions of the public. It could get scary.
Stock market going to tumble today. Australian market down almost 10%. Headed toward recession quickly. For the first time, I am concerned about the reactions of the public. It could get scary.
Fear is scary. Whether it's your fear or others.
Recession is.. Unlikely, IMO.. And that's because of the definition of contraction across two consecutive quarters. I can't see this lasting that long and the underlying cause of things here is so different from anything that's been experienced before.
Not saying this won't be painful.. But I doubt it gets classified as a true recession.. I also think, once things settle down.. The rebound is fairly quick. I doubt we get back to previous levels quickly, but.. Dow 26/27000 should be within a month or two.
Recession is.. Unlikely, IMO.. And that's because of the definition of contraction across two consecutive quarters. I can't see this lasting that long and the underlying cause of things here is so different from anything that's been experienced before.
Not saying this won't be painful.. But I doubt it gets classified as a true recession.. I also think, once things settle down.. The rebound is fairly quick. I doubt we get back to previous levels quickly, but.. Dow 26/27000 should be within a month or two.
Just my guess..
There are a lot of hourly workers at restaurants, fast food places, etc. that are losing income. There are a lot of people in other industries that are also losing significant income. Unless some creative way is found to make them whole or close to it, the effect will ripple through the economy for a significant period of time. Larger companies may be able to continue paying employees for several weeks even though it will impact their bottom line. Smaller companies and companies that operate on thin margins like grocery and retail may not have that luxury.
Short of some creative moves from a government that is normally anything but creative, a recession is likely.
There are a lot of hourly workers at restaurants, fast food places, etc. that are losing income. There are a lot of people in other industries that are also losing significant income. Unless some creative way is found to make them whole or close to it, the effect will ripple through the economy for a significant period of time. Larger companies may be able to continue paying employees for several weeks even though it will impact their bottom line. Smaller companies and companies that operate on thin margins like grocery and retail may not have that luxury.
Short of some creative moves from a government that is normally anything but creative, a recession is likely.
Grocery stores aren't going to be closing. They're going to be making money hand over fist, most likely, pending on stock levels. That's going to be their biggest concern.
Fast food and restaurants will be problematic.. Word is the government is open to some form of 'bailout' for them.. Whether it's paying workers directly or reimbursing ownership to continue paying the workers..
The waste in some of this is a concern.. Like.. Take the MGM workers in Vegas. Most, if not all, furloughed. Gov't is allowing states emergency measures for them to collect unemployment. Some folks might wind up better off.. They're talking a $1000 payment per 'Merican.. Plus they get unemployement..
Smaller restaurants.. They're going to be hurt. Your mom and pop places. Bed and Breakfasts.. Small hotels. Manufacturing? Once they return.. They're apt to be running balls to the wall. Wouldn't surprise me for many of their workers to make up what they lost and then some in overtime. Housing.. Banks offer temporary hardship deferrals all the time. I see no reason that wouldn't continue. Those that rent.. They could have some issues.
The vast majority of things.. The money isn't lost.. It's just.. Delayed.
I went out today and got a haircut, and ran errands. I took hand sanitizer with me and used it frequently. If things get worse in the upstate, I figure I might not be able to get a haircut for a while. Church is broadcasting services thanks to a parishioner with clergy and choir only in attendance - we've been told to stay home. I have a second shingles shot next week, and a cardiologist appointment in April and that's it for medical. I went to a park for a walk yesterday and made sure I left plenty of room between myself and other walkers (no way am I going to Planet Fitness until this is over). I'm going to either grocery shop early in the morning, or pay for delivery to minimize contact with other shoppers. I will order carryout from restaurants but won't sit down to eat at the restaurant. I pray for our small businesses and for the poor, who can't afford to stay home from work.
Stock market going to tumble today. Australian market down almost 10%. Headed toward recession quickly. For the first time, I am concerned about the reactions of the public. It could get scary.
I've been thinking the same thing.
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