Coronavirus Peak Dates (vs, treated, viruses, hospital)

[tgbwc]

On our local news it was reported that DC's projected peak is mid-April. Maryland's is May 1. Virginia May 29th. What I haven't seen is why such a difference in peak dates. There wasn't any detail about that.

Is it better to peak early or later? Is it that VA is stretching it out longer so the spike might not be as high thus the peak comes later?

[Deserterer]

Originally Posted by tgbwc

On our local news it was reported that DC's projected peak is mid-April. Maryland's is May 1. Virginia May 29th. What I haven't seen is why such a difference in peak dates. There wasn't any detail about that.

Is it better to peak early or later? Is it that VA is stretching it out longer so the spike might not be as high thus the peak comes later?

All other things being equal, its better to flatten the curve so there is no clear peak. But things are not equal between DC and VA. The latter will see many more deaths per day at the peak, 58 vs 9. You can look at what models predicts for deaths and hospital resource use/needs state by state at https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections



The model assumes certain conditions that may not be met, such as social distancing continuing through May...This model predicts "only" 80-some thousand deaths in the US by August

[tgbwc]

I would expect VA to have more deaths per day at the peak simply because there are 7-8 million more people in VA. I'm still not sure why Virginia is the latest to peak and if that's a good thing or bad. Schools have been close since mid-March, the stay at home order is in effect until June 10.

https://thehill.com/changing-america...-in-your-state

"...the latest is predicted to be May 20, in Virginia, where a stay at home order was put in place on March 30."

[Deserterer]

It suggests a flatter curve for VA which is good for health care workers and facilities and those being treated at them. It doesn't mean fewer cases overall, they will just be strung out over a longer period of time. But if health facilities are less overwhelmed at any given point in time, its likely to lead to better outcomes for some. So its a good thing. Its the whole point of social distancing, etc...