TS Danny (Houston, Galveston, Vega: 2015, live, shop)

[Craig1101]

I don't normally follow storms very closely and certainly not this early in formation, but my wife and I are going on a longtime planned trip to Vegas next Wednesday and if there's the slightest hint this could affect our area we'll have to cancel the trip as our kids are staying behind.

I've lived here 4 and a half years now and in that time never came close to experiencing a major storm, which makes me worried this will be the one, fingers and toes crossed that I'm wrong.

Who in the know can give me some odds of where and when this will hit land?

[Prey521]

Let me google that for you

[HookTheBrotherUp]

No one can give you good odds, but take the fact that we have not had a major storm in several years now. Of course, there will be another, could this one be it? Who knows. No one can give you a really good clue, so I would not worry about what might happen, and proceed with your plans. In the event that it becomes a hurricane and heads for Galveston, I can almost bet that any airline with common sense will allow you to make changes... if you are taking a flight that is.

BTW, we were in 'Vegas a couple of weeks ago, we took a road trip and included Vegas at the last minute... why not, we were close. We had the kids in tow! Not as fun with kids, but in another sense, it was. We stayed at the Bellagio for a few days, and the kids really had a great time; the pool, shopping, lights, etc. We did not gamble. We had not been to 'Vegas in almost ten years, so we saw a lot of changes, it was great. We plan to go back sans kids before the end of the year. It is hot as heck right now, I hope you like dry heat.

[Craig1101]

Thanks Hookthebrotherup, appreciate the response.

[haudi]

Here you go. Every map, forecast, model and bit of data you can use to track a hurricane. As anyone who was here for Ike can tell you, these storms are extremely dynamic and even a 20 mile shift left or right at the last minute can mean the difference between getting the worst of a storm and absolutely nothing but a little wind.

Hurricane Spaghetti Models / Spaghetti Charts / Tropical Forecast / Hurricane Charts Models / Tropical Update

[Chris V]

Vegas? Predicting weather?

After 15 years in Houston. My first experience was Allison. Wow that hit me in the face. Everything else eh.

Back to the odds. I am betting Danny is a dud.

[HookTheBrotherUp]

Originally Posted by Chris V

Vegas? Predicting weather?

After 15 years in Houston. My first experience was Allison. Wow that hit me in the face. Everything else eh.

Back to the odds. I am betting Danny is a dud.

Ha, good point! I am not sure when NOAA begins their twice a day reconnaissance flights, but when that happens, we will get better models, you will probably see change in direction in a few days.

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by haudi

Here you go. Every map, forecast, model and bit of data you can use to track a hurricane. As anyone who was here for Ike can tell you, these storms are extremely dynamic and even a 20 mile shift left or right at the last minute can mean the difference between getting the worst of a storm and absolutely nothing but a little wind.

Hurricane Spaghetti Models / Spaghetti Charts / Tropical Forecast / Hurricane Charts Models / Tropical Update

Those spaghetti models are great and its looking more and more like they are predicting a northwest turn for this storm up the eastern seaboard...

[elnina]

You can follow up this thread:
Danny forms in the Atlantic. 8/18/15

or/and check this link:
http://bearpawsweather.com/tropical/index.html

[chiu0nthls]

I doubt it will hit anywhere near Galveston. Like any other storm that far East, it SHOULD shoot up the East Coast, and may not even touch land. I am no weatherman, but random searches for hurricane paths starting in the area TS Danny started, it looks to shoot up the east coast with the media over playing it.