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Sun 29Sept 5aEDT/AST,6aADT: Winds 155mph(250km/h), moving N 10mph(17km/h), pressure 925mb. Peaked late yesterday, should steadily weaken, then more rapidly as gets too far North this week. NHC has 105mph hurricane close to The Azores Tuesday night into Wednesday, 65mph or so Extra-Tropical Storm UK later Thursday and Friday but models are split on where after Azores it goes...some Greenland, others Iceland, some UK, some N Europe. Where ever it goes after Azores it will have transitioned away from Tropical status so wind field will likely be quite a large reach depending on structure of storm.
Hurricane Watches are likely to go up for The Azores late tonight or early Monday.
Sun 29Sept 11aEDT/AST,12pADT: Winds 145mph(230km/h), moving NNE 10mph(17km/h), pressure 938mb. Not looking so healthy on satellite last few frames. It's definitely weakening now. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1178323270615130113
Sun 29Sept 5pEDT/AST,6pADT: Winds 115mph(185km/h), moving NNE 10mph(17km/h), pressure 948mb. Cat3. The Azores rainfall could be 3-6inches (West), 1-2in(East).
Mon 30Sept 11aEDT/AST,12pADT,3pGMT: Winds 105mph(165km/h), moving NNE 15mph(24km/h), pressure 962mb. Hurricane Warning West and central Azores, Tropical Storm Warning East. Hurricane force winds extend up to 90miles(150km) from center, Tropical Storm winds 255miles(405km). Lorenzo is on it's way to becoming extra-tropical with it's wind field expanding out, looses all tropical characteristics likely within 72hours, when it'll basically just be a large N Atlantic Low. Still split in models on where it'll go after The Azores.
I'm thinking we're likely to have the first Cat 5 in 14 years that won't be retired. Assuming Lorenzo doesn't do too much damage in the Azores and the British Isles. I'd say that, overall, Lorenzo has a 25% chance of being retired. There's been the Bourbon Rhode ship sank, and there's going to be damage, but overall the world largely dodged a bullet on this one.
Dorian's definitely being retired. No question. Imelda's possible, but unlikely to be retired.
Tue 1-Oct 11pEDT/AST; 12aADT/3aGMT Wednesday 2-Oct: Winds 100mph(155km/h), moving NE very quickly now at 40mph(65km/h), pressure 960mb. Located about 85miles(135km) WSW of Flores Island, western Azores.
obs: https://windalert.com/search/azores
Flores Island: 45mph sustained, gust to 64mph, climbing.
Faial Island: 39mph sustained, gust to 45mph.
Wed 2-Oct 5aEDT/AST/6aADT/9aGMT/10a in UK: Winds 90mph(150km/h), moving NE 43mph(69km/h), pressure 960mb. Pulling away from Azores at about 220miles(355km) NNE of Flores Island, western Azores. Conditions improving across the islands. Hurricane force winds extend up to 150miles(240km) from storm center, Tropical Storm winds about 390miles(630km).
Likely looses last of tropical characteristics today. Looks to come into the UK with near hurricane force winds though still, at least Tropical Storm strength expected.
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