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Old 09-05-2012, 08:58 PM
 
Location: Wicker Park, Chicago
4,789 posts, read 14,743,975 times
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If Netflix hits a Low Soon is it Safe to Buy? How does it look long term? I don't think it'd go below 52.
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Old 09-05-2012, 09:49 PM
 
Location: Warwick, RI
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No, NFLX is a falling knife, don't try to catch it. Even though it's declined tremendousy already, with a P/E of 31 and a P/B of almost 4.5, it's still terribly overvalued. The balance sheet is fairly solid, but a P/E of 31 is fairly high for a fast grower, and right now, NFLX business is not growing, it's declining. Just my opinion, but I'd say a reasonable fair value for this stock is somewhere between $25 and $30. On top of that, they pay no dividend, so just like their current movie selection, theres nothing much here to like. If anything, it might be a good short candidate, if you're inclined to take a short position.
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Old 09-06-2012, 04:56 AM
 
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I think NFLX is fine long term, but as of now it's too volatile. Their expansion overseas comes with huge costs. There is still no other service that comes close to NFLX. However, AMZN is gaining huge momentum especially with the EPIX deal they recently signed. Some positive signs, there is large insider buying and they gained all the customers they lost from the price hike back. My recommendation would be to wait and monitor news.
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Old 09-09-2012, 02:38 PM
 
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I think Amazon and Apple are going to pummel Netflix into submission.
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:54 PM
 
Location: Chicago
3,920 posts, read 6,835,417 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cpg35223 View Post
I think Amazon and Apple are going to pummel Netflix into submission.
I disagree. I think Netflix will soon realize that they need to step up, currently their service is sub par. But once the company starts to provide a robust offering, they will easily sweep the competition. Have you seen Amazon Primes offering? Calling it horrible is an overstatement. Apple really has no great way of delivering content on demand. iTunes is not compatible everywhere like Netflix is. I have Netflix available on my iPhone, PS3, Computer, and Wii. iTunes has yet to touch 2 of the 4.

Though, the stock is still overpriced and risky for what its selling at currently. The company has made some very shaky decisions, which has made me question the competence of its leadership.
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Old 10-01-2012, 10:14 PM
 
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I wouldn't buy anything that's been trending down for so long. It's likely to just continue going down.

I might consider it if it starts to reverse, but not now. You might not catch it at the very bottom then that way, but at least you'd have a decent chance of getting in on an uptrend, instead of just hoping that there will be an uptrend.
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Old 10-01-2012, 10:52 PM
 
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I think evetaully netflix will raise their prices as competition is much higher.I mean their streaming service at 8 buks is way cheap compared to rentals. They alos are buying up the rights to stream compared to others. kind of the jpanese form of keep prices low;gain the market ;eliminate competitio then raise price. The bycott really didn't end up hurtig them;they are just spending alot for content rights.Remmbere Apples was thoguht to be going down the tubes once.
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Old 10-02-2012, 01:48 AM
 
24,404 posts, read 26,951,108 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by texdav View Post
I think evetaully netflix will raise their prices as competition is much higher.I mean their streaming service at 8 buks is way cheap compared to rentals. They alos are buying up the rights to stream compared to others. kind of the jpanese form of keep prices low;gain the market ;eliminate competitio then raise price. The bycott really didn't end up hurtig them;they are just spending alot for content rights.Remmbere Apples was thoguht to be going down the tubes once.
I agree, I actually canceled my cable recently because I watch Netflix 80% of the time. Amazon Prime isn't gaining much traction. I also have an account there too and at least as of now it's nowhere near Netflix's level of selection. However, I would stay away from the stock now unless you are willing to go LONG term.
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Old 10-03-2012, 01:21 PM
 
4,196 posts, read 6,297,334 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by treasurekidd View Post
No, NFLX is a falling knife, don't try to catch it. Even though it's declined tremendousy already, with a P/E of 31 and a P/B of almost 4.5, it's still terribly overvalued. The balance sheet is fairly solid, but a P/E of 31 is fairly high for a fast grower, and right now, NFLX business is not growing, it's declining. Just my opinion, but I'd say a reasonable fair value for this stock is somewhere between $25 and $30. On top of that, they pay no dividend, so just like their current movie selection, theres nothing much here to like. If anything, it might be a good short candidate, if you're inclined to take a short position.
i guess you were a bit off on that......
Netflix is loved again. Stock surges 8%
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Old 10-03-2012, 04:14 PM
 
Location: Warwick, RI
5,477 posts, read 6,302,778 times
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Quote:
i guess you were a bit off on that......
11 whole percent? Considering it was over $120 just a few months ago, and it closed today at $62.58, I wouldn't say it's up, and I'm not wrong about the underlying business. This is a poorly managed company with an unspectacular product selection and it is still overvalued. Swing trade it all you want, but don't invest in this thing on any type of long term basis.
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