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I think Apple earnings are Jan. 22nd. The market was down a little today and Apple was up. It looks like Wall St. will give Apple a free pass, with limited downside, until the 22nd. That will be D-Day for them. They have missed earnings two quarters in a row. Three in a row would surely ignite the bears.
The most bearish analyst has a 310 target. The most bullish are 1111 and 1600.
Last edited by howard555; 12-24-2012 at 03:41 PM..
I don't think AAPL has been given a free pass, it's simply been oversold for temporary reasons such as the fiscal cliff and capital gains tax. They still have a small presence in China yet they sold a record 2 million iPhones in 3 days. The next earnings report will be very important. I don't think I will buy any options until after the announcement. I'm still very bullish for the next 12 months. There is also renewed speculation on an iTV. There are reports about Foxconn testing 46-55" TV sets. Between China and an introduction of another new product, AAPL still has a good future.
I don't think AAPL has been given a free pass, it's simply been oversold for temporary reasons such as the fiscal cliff and capital gains tax. They still have a small presence in China yet they sold a record 2 million iPhones in 3 days. The next earnings report will be very important. I don't think I will buy any options until after the announcement. I'm still very bullish for the next 12 months. There is also renewed speculation on an iTV. There are reports about Foxconn testing 46-55" TV sets. Between China and an introduction of another new product, AAPL still has a good future.
There is a story today about an iCar.
How many people would pay $1000 or more for some iTV?
They could use $1.5 billion of their cash and buy Tivo for example. Maybe buy Netflix too.
D. Nathan thinks Apple will trade in a range 450-550. I hope he is wrong.
G. Munster has picked Apple as his stock of the year for 2013. He has a target over 900. He is making a pretty intelligent prediction, seeing the stock was about 28% down from the high.
Apple could quickly rise to 600-625 on good news. If it arrived there, and had wind at it's back, 700 could happen within days. At that point investors would get a 2nd chance to get out, or buy put options.
I'm long a few shares and the Jan. 2015 $550 call.
I think Apple earnings are Jan. 22nd. The market was down a little today and Apple was up. It looks like Wall St. will give Apple a free pass, with limited downside, until the 22nd. That will be D-Day for them. They have missed earnings two quarters in a row. Three in a row would surely ignite the bears.
The most bearish analyst has a 310 target. The most bullish are 1111 and 1600.
I posted this on one of the Apple threads and it never showed up as a renewed thread; Very odd. I'll repeat it here:
I know nothing about shares and valuations... I'm a consumer. I bought the Ipad this year and hate it. The ICloud thing has given me headaches and too many problems. It doesn't work the way it's suppose to (just Google this if you don't believe me). It rejects all my prior passwords and keeps forcing me to keep getting a new password... which never works. My POP email no longer comes in.
I'm taking a loss and selling it to some wannabee Ipad owner. I think the "glitz" is over.. It won't be long before people eventually see it's not all it's cranked up to be.
I was totally disappointed in the product. I'd planned to do the Iphone and sync, but after this bad episode with ICloud, I'm passing.
I posted this on one of the Apple threads and it never showed up as a renewed thread; Very odd. I'll repeat it here:
I know nothing about shares and valuations... I'm a consumer. I bought the Ipad this year and hate it. The ICloud thing has given me headaches and too many problems. It doesn't work the way it's suppose to (just Google this if you don't believe me). It rejects all my prior passwords and keeps forcing me to keep getting a new password... which never works. My POP email no longer comes in.
I'm taking a loss and selling it to some wannabee Ipad owner. I think the "glitz" is over.. It won't be long before people eventually see it's not all it's cranked up to be.
I was totally disappointed in the product. I'd planned to do the Iphone and sync, but after this bad episode with ICloud, I'm passing.
I know this is taking it off topic a bit, but... I don't know what your troubles were... I had two macbooks, an ipad, and an iphone all synced up to the same icloud account and it worked seamlessly. pop, imap, and exchange all worked as well. I don't know if it was user error with your case because i've seen some people try to do some simple things that were still able to mess stuff up.
The day of reckoning is near.
Apple guided to $11.75 and $52.0 billion in sales. The consensus estimate was way up at $15.43 and $55 billion. That was before some analyst lowered their total iPhone sales down a little.
Look at earnings whisper dot com the current estimate is $13.42. No "whisper" number yet.
So with the stock at 525, this next week might be a run-up into the earnings on the 23rd.
Will it reach 600 before 450?
Will it reach 650 before 400?
They are rumors that there may be an Apple TV and a music service to bury Pandora.
It's pretty certain those products are coming soon. Last week, I read about an Apple car and an Apple watch. A mini iPhone for other countries to compete with Samsung and Nokia at lower price points. A curved screen and other possible enhancements.
Their earnings announcement could contain alot of surprises.
Earnings miss or blowout?
Increase in the dividend, a special dividend, a stock split?
I've been saying for the last year that Apple was overvalued. At this point however, I would feel relatively safe buying some around the lower 500 mark. I would much prefer to wait for the upper 400 territory if that's in the cards. I think a lot of folks sold due to the fiscal cliff, and investors are now considering buying back in since it isn't the end of the world.
Personally, I think Apple is running out of good ideas. I don't see iTV as being the next big thing. If anything, it's just a rehash of an already failed idea. As an investor, they have me worried when they are playing around with old ideas because they can't think of anything new. They do have new markets that they can tap into, so I guess we'll have to wait to see where that takes them. At the same time, I can't imagine the profit margin would be as healthy if they are making products in China and expecting to sell them in China. The low wage advantage is lost at that point. They better think of something original soon though, otherwise they risk loosing market share in already firmly established markets...
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