Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Companies w/patents for batteries for electric cars--and AI for self-driving...
The rare metals used in those batteries although most of those are in China from my reading so access might be problamatic...
Rising ocean waters will create opportunities but don't know if there is an ETF for something like that--
Alzheimer's research --which maybe fits w/previous post re ETF XLV
To double in real value in ten years requires an average annual return rate of 7% over and above the rate of inflation. (Rule of 72.)
This rate of return is not likely to come from stocks or bonds unless you can guess the few that will have outsize returns and not revert to the mean in the ten-year period.
Let's just say that inflation averages 3% annually over the next ten years. Which investment do YOU think will return 10% annually, on average?
People will say "Well, if you had just invested in XYZ ten years ago, you would have had XXX% return." Right. Hindsight is 20/20. Foresight is infinity/20.
Water might become a hot commodity in the not too distant future, but difficult to invest in directly. Technology stocks for extracting water (from the ground, from the ocean) is one way to invest, but I expect those to have 'normal' rates of return, in the 3-7% average annual range (and not in real value).
For electric cars, I would look at the companies that extract and produce the rare earth elements that are used in battery technology. The technology for batteries has essentially lagged the technologies for everything else and the batteries are the weak link in the development.
Someone somewhere will get rich quick with marijuana stocks, but one has to pick from the many startups. Who will be the Microsoft of the MaryJane market? MJ use might even drop off if someone comes out with a Virtual Reality experience that exceeds the MJ experience, and doesn't impair driving ability or create a junk food habit.
To double in real value in ten years requires an average annual return rate of 7% over and above the rate of inflation. (Rule of 72.)
This rate of return is not likely to come from stocks or bonds unless you can guess the few that will have outsize returns and not revert to the mean in the ten-year period.
Let's just say that inflation averages 3% annually over the next ten years. Which investment do YOU think will return 10% annually, on average?
People will say "Well, if you had just invested in XYZ ten years ago, you would have had XXX% return." Right. Hindsight is 20/20. Foresight is infinity/20.
Water might become a hot commodity in the not too distant future, but difficult to invest in directly. Technology stocks for extracting water (from the ground, from the ocean) is one way to invest, but I expect those to have 'normal' rates of return, in the 3-7% average annual range (and not in real value).
For electric cars, I would look at the companies that extract and produce the rare earth elements that are used in battery technology. The technology for batteries has essentially lagged the technologies for everything else and the batteries are the weak link in the development.
Someone somewhere will get rich quick with marijuana stocks, but one has to pick from the many startups. Who will be the Microsoft of the MaryJane market? MJ use might even drop off if someone comes out with a Virtual Reality experience that exceeds the MJ experience, and doesn't impair driving ability or create a junk food habit.
You are combining two different performance metrics. Doubling and doubling adjusted for inflation. I wouldn’t be shocked if the first three listed didn’t double in 10 years.
The rare metals used in those batteries although most of those are in China from my reading so access might be problamatic...
I just now saw this in your post.
You are correct about the rare earth metals (REM). China does have a monopoly partly because they have very relaxed environmental protection standards in regards to processing the metals. The processing of rare earth metals creates toxic and radioactive waste.
For example, a Malaysian city that I lived in allowed a REM processor to set up shop because the company promised jobs and Malaysia has very relaxed environmental standards. The REM processor had tried to set up a plant in Australia, but Australians got that effort shut down.
You are combining two different performance metrics. Doubling and doubling adjusted for inflation. I wouldn’t be shocked if the first three listed didn’t double in 10 years.
No, I am not "combining" but showing the difference between 'doubling' and 'doubling in real value'. Doubling requires a 7% rate of return in 10 years. Doubling in real value requires a 10% rate of return if inflation is around 3%.
Something will double in value in the next 10 years. How to guess which one is the problem.
In $AMZN we trust. They will be eating away at healthcare companies and prescription drugs by then. Lordy knows what other industries they will be disrupting between now and then. Bezos is thinking decades ahead and won't disappoint shareholders.
No, I am not "combining" but showing the difference between 'doubling' and 'doubling in real value'. Doubling requires a 7% rate of return in 10 years. Doubling in real value requires a 10% rate of return if inflation is around 3%.
Something will double in value in the next 10 years. How to guess which one is the problem.
The op wasn’t about inflation adjust terms and your response was so you were combining them. The three listed first could very well double in value over ten years and it wouldn’t shock anyone
To make a lithium battery, which will continue to expand in use, (Panasonic makes them for Tesla - PCRFY) you need lithium (SQM - largest of the Chilean producers) and cobalt (Glencore***) currently. The best and largest deposits of cobalt are in Congo. In order to mine in Congo you need a lot...and the blessing of Congo's klepto government. Glencore currently has the lock, but is getting chased by authorities. Whoever designs the battery that can get away from cobalt is going to be a winner.
Today's MJ offerings are frankly....pretty weak. They may get a bit of sponsorship from beverage and tobacco in order to prepare for the goods, but once MJ becomes legal you can assume the real game will be won by the seed companies that dominate modern ag today. There's little reason to not think it can't be grown directly in mass quantity from a US producer. It was called weed because initially, that's exactly what it was. A weed that grew wild near streams. The ultimate winner will be whoever has the best distribution line-up. Consumers will want consistency in knowing what they're ingesting/smoking. It will not become as big as smoking tobacco was.
Medical will continue to grow as the population continues to age in Japan and Europe with the boomer population growing older in the US. Governmental deficits may come home to roost in selecting cost over quality as the ultimate payers of these programs face reduced options. US providers will have to balance capacity as the following generation (X) is much smaller
5G and beyond will likely decimate cabled technologies. Having a communication stock that is moving the needle is likely a good idea.
Drone deliveries will be performed almost immediately after the FAA revises its rules. Even if AI self driving cars on crowded highways doesn't come about, AI detecting robots could be deployed more extensively in hazardous situations, mining, storage and fabrication environments.
The golden age of content will get slapped to a close at the next recession, but will likely rebound throughout the world. Hollywood will keep her sway as the capital, but other areas will become more prominent.
Smart homes will become a reality in 10 years. Construction will largely be modular, which can allow for the first robotic home construction. In a generation all older homes will be obsolete.
Physical cash will begin to lose preference to cash in banks. The liability incurred by banks for receiving cash may even cause them to stop accepting it and/or charge a fee, similar to coinstar.
If commercially viable fusion is discovered, the developing utilities become the hot tech to hold. Massive capex for deployment and grid will be needed and areas off the grid and development areas will become nearly worthless. The country that discovers this will enter the next golden age.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
