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Old 01-13-2016, 05:13 PM
 
106,724 posts, read 108,913,061 times
Reputation: 80213

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Quote:
Originally Posted by JIMANDTHOM View Post
Not thrilled about the drop, but my AA is pretty much 45/55 stocks to bonds/cash. Concerned but not to the jumpy stomach, butterflies etc. point.








Back in July, we opened a SPIA to the tune of 75K, that was totally pulled out of stock based funds. This little SPIA has greatly contributed to my comfort zone and is looking more and more like a smart move.


Yep I don't want a crash, even though I could possibly capitalize on it. We have about 1.5 years of income set aside if you don't count our pensions. Including our pensions we are good for about 10 years of not having to touch retirement funds.


We try to play the game based on the rules/tools available at the time.
same here , just retired 6 months ago .

we have two to 3 years cash and many years of bonds we can sell before even worrying about markets .

while bear markets are not a comfortable feeling , after 30 years as an investor you get used to the fact they go with the territory and always did and always look like we are going to hell in a hand basket and never bouncing back . .
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Old 01-13-2016, 10:04 PM
 
72 posts, read 294,272 times
Reputation: 131
Oh good another chicken-little.

I'm looking at nearly 30 years til retirement. With a thirty year time horizon, stocks made money even if invested at the height of the market prior to the Great Depression.

So unless y'all can make a case for an economic apocalypse surpassing the dust bowl and starvation of the Great Depression- hard times beyond anything most of us can imagine- then I'm just not sure why you expect to be taken seriously.

I mean if you guys really believe the Zombie Apocalypse is at hand... this discussion is moot anyway. What's the ROI of canned food and ammo?
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Old 01-13-2016, 10:29 PM
 
Location: Chicago
5,559 posts, read 4,631,471 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iskerbibel View Post
Oh good another chicken-little.

I'm looking at nearly 30 years til retirement. With a thirty year time horizon, stocks made money even if invested at the height of the market prior to the Great Depression.

So unless y'all can make a case for an economic apocalypse surpassing the dust bowl and starvation of the Great Depression- hard times beyond anything most of us can imagine- then I'm just not sure why you expect to be taken seriously.

I mean if you guys really believe the Zombie Apocalypse is at hand... this discussion is moot anyway. What's the ROI of canned food and ammo?
Well seeing as you asked:

S&P will plunge 75% on China deflation: SocGen bear
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Old 01-14-2016, 01:58 AM
 
106,724 posts, read 108,913,061 times
Reputation: 80213
ha ha ha ha , these soothsayers just don't stop . they appear every bear market with their predictions that to date have not panned out in the long term EVER . remember the death of equity's issue of business week magazine when equity's performed so poorly for so long they were declared no longer a viable asset class .

we all know what happened next . out of the rubble there were 17 years of 14% cagr returns out of no where .
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Old 01-14-2016, 05:33 AM
 
Location: Arizona
296 posts, read 319,489 times
Reputation: 607
There sure are some loonies on this website.
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Old 01-14-2016, 07:04 AM
 
Location: Spain
12,722 posts, read 7,582,293 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by openmike View Post
Martiall Law down the road
Okay, when? You predicted this before you know (for 2015) and got it wrong. Are you know reduced to just saying it'll happen someday every year? I can counter that down the road everyone will be given a pet unicorn, and it is impossible to prove I'm wrong.

Quote:
Originally Posted by richrf View Post
And you're the guy who predicted in these forums that the stock market topped out in 2012, right before a 30% 2013 and 15% 2014.

You sure looked the fool then, so I guess we'll revisit this in a year too.
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Old 01-14-2016, 07:16 AM
 
Location: NC
5,129 posts, read 2,599,470 times
Reputation: 2398
my s&p put spreads are doing awesome
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Old 01-14-2016, 07:18 AM
 
106,724 posts, read 108,913,061 times
Reputation: 80213
until they ain't .
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Old 01-14-2016, 07:37 AM
 
Location: Washington, DC
4,320 posts, read 5,140,801 times
Reputation: 8277
I hesitate to write this but feel I must. I think there are 2 types of people who want to see the stock market plunge as low as possible: a) people with no savings/investments who are running on sour grapes -- I don't care about them; b) people on the right who think Democrat presidents (Obama, Hillary) are the worst things on earth and think a depressed stock market will get Trump, Cruz or another Republican elected.

Group b worries me because it might be possible for a critical mass of republican investors to temporarily pull out of stocks to cause an ugly crash. We know Wall Street is acclimated to the right so this push could come from financial institutions and not just individual investors.

I really hope I am being paranoid. Comments welcome, I'll hold on to my seat.
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Old 01-14-2016, 08:57 AM
 
72 posts, read 294,272 times
Reputation: 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by richrf View Post
Yeah, I was reading a different article about the same prediction this morning. Here's a point that I think should be noted:

Quote:
It should be pointed out that Edwards has been making similar calls for years. Back in 2010,*he called for the S&P to collapse to 450. It didn’t. And had investors taken his advice then, they would have missed out on one of the greatest stock market booms in history—the S&P 500 has in fact soared more than 80% since then, and now, even with the recent dip, stands at just under 1,900.*
Analyst: Here Comes the Biggest Stock Market Crash in a Generation - Fortune
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