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Uncanny... clairvoyant! I'm a stodgy buy-and-hold type, who ignores hunches, either pro or con. But had I been a betting man, in the summer of 2015 (when the DOW was at around 18,000) I would have guessed that it would have ended 2015 at 20,000... and would have muscled its way to 22500 by the end of 2016. And I would have sold puts (options) with a strike-price at 19,000. Why? Because after a period of stagnation (as of the summer of 2015), I was convinced that the market was finally ready to break out of its doldrums. Oh, and I would have called the Nikkei to be at 27,000 at this point (February 2016).
It's a good thing that I stick with buy-and-hold!
Clairvoyance had nothing to do with it.....anyone not even slightly delusional should have known that the market was oversold and reaching a tipping point. Fortunately I'm in contact with enough everyday business owners & regular Joe's to know the economy was not the rosy picture the talking heads on the finance channels, the manipulated numbers and the warlocks at the FED would have everyone believe.
Clairvoyance had nothing to do with it.....anyone not even slightly delusional should have known that the market was oversold and reaching a tipping point. Fortunately I'm in contact with enough everyday business owners & regular Joe's to know the economy was not the rosy picture the talking heads on the finance channels, the manipulated numbers and the warlocks at the FED would have everyone believe.
I've been making more since 2015 than ever before. I even have a stable recession proof job now. The economy is great for me.
No. My situation is similar to the majority of others (But most don't have a recession proof job because they're too dumb to realize government employment during economic upturns is the best idea).
No. My situation is similar to the majority of others (But most don't have a recession proof job because they're too dumb to realize government employment during economic upturns is the best idea).
There are a lot of problem with being government employee, I won't go into here. People are not dumb as you think, only dumb people think it's an ideal job. My husband just retired from such job, and he couldn't wait to retire from it.
I see people in such job is wishing for the doom and gloom scenario here. Honestly, I don't think it's patriotic. A country needs capital for business to expand, otherwise who pays for the government jobs.
There are a lot of problem with being government employee, I won't go into here. People are not dumb as you think, only dumb people think it's an ideal job. My husband just retired from such job, and he couldn't wait to retire from it.
I see people in such job is wishing for the doom and gloom scenario here. Honestly, I don't think it's patriotic. A country needs capital for business to expand, otherwise who pays for the government jobs.
The public sector needs a healthy private sector, and vice versa. It's a symbiotic relationship - not an adversarial one. And this is one reason that I've been (as it turns out) speciously optimistic over the past 16 years (and the prior 8). Though by ideology we've had three very different US presidential administrations since 1993, all three understood that equity markets can thrive only when there is enough demand-stimulation from the public sector, and that Schumpeter's so-called "creative destruction" must be ameliorated and brokered by a third party. This is why I've been so surprised that stock markets in the 21st century have been doing so much worse than those of the late 20th.
Specifically regarding 2015, it was my impression that Europe had finally healed from its 2007-2011 crisis, with Greece and the other peripheral nations stabilized, a stimulative policy finally replacing austerity, and the dollar bottomed-out. With renewed worldwide consumer activity, I expected for oil prices to recover, in turn stimulating emerging-markets (with the commodity-based economies) and alternative-energy ventures in the West.
Instead, what actually transpired was exactly the reverse of my forecast. And this is why I cling to buy-and-hold, instead of anything more agile or perspicacious.
The main area experiencing problems are oil-related... if oil prices recover or at least stabilize, I'd say there would be virtually a zero percent chance of a recession happening in the near future. If oil prices crash further, then maybe we could see a recession in the near future, but it wouldn't be like 2008/09.
If anything i always thought oil was under priced not inflated
It comes from some of the worst places on the planet ,gets shipped around the world , refined , processed ,delivered and sold . It cost less then a gallon of milk from a cow up state.
A price is what anyone wants to pay for something . We have been calling real estate in manhattan a bubble or inflated for decades. Well it is neither , that is the price and it continues decades later to still go up
If anything i always thought oil was under priced not inflated
It comes from some of the worst places on the planet ,gets shipped around the world , refined , processed ,delivered and sold . It cost less then a gallon of milk from a cow up state.
A price is what anyone wants to pay for something . We have been calling real estate in manhattan a bubble or inflated for decades. Well it is neither , that is the price and it continues decades later to still go up
Overall, commodities lose real value over time because of progress in extraction technology. The only exception to this has been crude but I think it is now catching up. Gold is way down since 1980 in real terms. Other assets like RE (not everywhere) and stocks tend to go up in real terms as profits grow (earnings + rents). As the world population grows slower and at some point may even contract RE becomes dicier.
Gold is not a good example since it is directly linked to the dollar.
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