Anyone here betting (literally) on the French election? (hedge fund, invested, stocks)

[arctic_gardener]

Betting on a Le Pen win may be a good way to hedge your bets (pun intended). If she wins, you get your payout and get to buy the consequently cheap European stocks after they get pummeled. If she loses, you lose your stake but stocks go up.

For the record, I didn't bet.

[mathjak107]

after the last few market reactions and polls to things i think i will sit this one out . no one can predict what the results will be as they just never play out how we expect .

[lchoro]

It doesn't matter.

ECB to inject liquidity to support bankers

You might see a dip engineered like Brexit or when Trump was elected so they can force the central banks' hand. Manufacturing mini-crises would seem to be a very profitable way for banks, hedge funds, and other insiders to force the hand of the greatest fool.

[Nolefan34]

If Le Pen wins, markets will plummet overnight then rebound in the days after. If Macron wins, markets will rocket overnight then slow fade afterwards back to par. Why? Because the French elections are virtually meaningless for the U.S. except for short-term speculators.

If you believe Le Pen will win, the better move would be to wait on the sidelines until the election results are announced and the market drops 1000 points. Then go all-in a.l.a. Carl Icahn style.

If you believe Macron will win, you are better off being fully invested ahead of time and sitting tight. I would expect markets to rally then fade back to par.