Are you selling, hedging, holding on, buying, or?

[NewbieHere]

I wonder what happens to all the doom and gloom thread. When I first joined here there were so many. Is this a sign of a bubble top.

[macyny]

Originally Posted by NewbieHere

I wonder what happens to all the doom and gloom thread. When I first joined here there were so many. Is this a sign of a bubble top.

I feel it might be. How long when it bursts is the million dollar question.

My stocks are up so much, I don't want to lose the profits. But, this could go on for a while and I don't want to lose that either. Greed can be dangerous!

Market timing is not possible. If you sell now, what the hell do you buy?

[mathjak107]

you could shift to a more defensive portfolio . it does not have to be all or nothing or just stocks and bonds ,

there are more bullet proof models you can use that can make more money in a down turn off long term treasuries and gold than stocks may fall .

while you will do okay if we continue up that protection will come at a price to gains .

the bullet proof portfolio's are designed to give you positive real returns no matter what the event and never devastate you . but there is a price in up markets to pay .


https://portfoliocharts.com/portfoli...ent-portfolio/

https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/

[lchoro]

Originally Posted by NewbieHere

I wonder what happens to all the doom and gloom thread. When I first joined here there were so many. Is this a sign of a bubble top.

November 2015 was the start of a 10-15 percent decline. The government had just reached a new debt ceiling agreement, and borrowed 700 billion dollars in one month. Crude oil had been declining for a year, reaching a low in the mid-20's by January 2016. Central banks and SWF's were raising cash because of the reduced oil revenues. This was referred to by some as quantitative tightening. Quantitative easing (QE) by the big 3 central banks was overwhelmed by the new debt supply in the short term.

QE will probably have to stop soon. All three banks now own 40-50 percent of their respective government's bonds. As a result of the negative rates and remittances of interest to their treasuries, fiscal deficits have started falling sharply. Even at the reduced rate of purchases at 120-150 billion dollars each month, they are still buying more than 2x required to finance their respective deficits of their regions and enough to cover the US fiscal deficit as well.