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Bump... I've ready to start looking at "bear" / SHTF hedges or investments now.
Any advice on how to best do this other than a " reverse s&p etf " ?
Most Preppers don't have any money.
But if you do and you want to protect it, you may want to use T-Bills, 30 days at a time. There is a thread about how to use them.
Most Preppers don't have any money.
But if you do and you want to protect it, you may want to use T-Bills, 30 days at a time. There is a thread about how to use them.
I guess specifically my worry is tied to public + private debt hence leading to a collapse of the dollar causing stagflation and pandemics of violence and resources shortages. Investing in treasuries would be unwise in this incident.
I’m not predicting aliens or zombie apocalypse. I likely can not afford a reasonable cabin and land now but real gold or other hard commodities in deposit box are options.
Is gold really a good hard asset or should other commodities with real value be better investments (copper, Nickel, etc..)?
I guess specifically my worry is tied to public + private debt hence leading to a collapse of the dollar causing stagflation and pandemics of violence and resources shortages. Investing in treasuries would be unwise in this incident.
In any serious crisis, there's a flight-to-safety, and hence an appreciation of the US dollar, and of US treasuries. That is exactly what happened during the Great Recession. If the American financial system were to collapse, you'd have far greater concerns, than mere investment.
I'm not in the least saying this from a jingoistic, rah-rah-rah chest-thumping Americanism. On the contrary, I'd prefer a world where the nexus of prosperity and global financial importance broadens. But this is unlikely for many decades to come, and nearly impossible in the near future. America remains the unassailable bastion of global financial strength. Debt is indeed a serious issue, but the persons and institutions most likely to suffer from it are not in America. They are in the peripheral and emerging markets.
I guess specifically my worry is tied to public + private debt hence leading to a collapse of the dollar causing stagflation and pandemics of violence and resources shortages. Investing in treasuries would be unwise in this incident.
I’m not predicting aliens or zombie apocalypse. I likely can not afford a reasonable cabin and land now but real gold or other hard commodities in deposit box are options.
Is gold really a good hard asset or should other commodities with real value be better investments (copper, Nickel, etc..)?
Gold has always been the flight to safety asset ... other commodities are just that .. in 2008 we saw all commodities plunge except gold which went up.
Be careful with gold in safe deposit boxes ....some banks including chase forbid the storage of gold bullion and any coins not collectibles
Aside from some really beaten down stocks I have purchased like KHC and a smaller position in DF (traded HA and some oil stocks as well), I have moved to cash and UUP. I think there is still some limited upside with the China trade deal on the table, but IMO the risk does not outweigh the reward. Too many potential negative catalysts out there right now. I like the dollar shorter-term because I think the world will experience some really dire times soon and people around the world will be looking for any safe-haven. They will jump in the dollar. I don't like the dollar longer-term though for obvious reasons. Once the dollar jumps I will look to get into gold. I think gold will retrace down to around the 1K mark while the dollar is surging and will be an excellent buying opportunity.
Dire times ahead. Most people as usual are completely unprepared. Bad times will start before the election.
I guess specifically my worry is tied to public + private debt hence leading to a collapse of the dollar causing stagflation and pandemics of violence and resources shortages. Investing in treasuries would be unwise in this incident.
I’m not predicting aliens or zombie apocalypse. I likely can not afford a reasonable cabin and land now but real gold or other hard commodities in deposit box are options.
Is gold really a good hard asset or should other commodities with real value be better investments (copper, Nickel, etc..)?
Well, we're a long way from this happening. Anti-Fed trades are expensive, rare and unlikely to be of much use.
Ironically, the 3 Month T-Bill is very possibly your best alternative. It sounds strange, but you have to think of what it would take to cause the shock and what would be affected before then. First, an economic shock would have to occur. Much more than the general grind, something tremendous would have to happen, in order to rock the world away from Treasuries. Whatever that event is would first have to crush domestic consumption, forcing very bloated corporations to default and municipalities to default....and equities are dead in the water as well. It's got to be widespread as well, otherwise others will be jumping in to scoop up the assets.
With no US consumption, pressure may come on other countries. After all, they still want to be paid in dollars because the FED dollar is still worth something, even if Americans can't afford to hold them. It is only when the other central banks begin widespread sales of their treasuries that the dollar will become kaput....but first you need all of the central banks to agree treasuries are dead and gone....which means a bunch of the most powerful people in the world have to come together and agree their accumulated and vast treasure is now....worthless.
Gold is convertible into currencies, but so are Treasury notes. Holding them is very safe, but doesn't do much in terms of income. In a situation so substantial, even holding gold has its limits. If economies of scale unwind and supply chains become disrupted, you can have periods of shocking inflation in a recessionary environment. Think of war profiteers or shady suppliers in the aftermath of a storm. The street price on everything goes up even as productivity in an area drops.
The US would have to have widespread disruption...and further, disruption that is expected to continue for a long period of time...in order to knock down the treasuries. In that event, gold shines brightly....but when resupply is questionable, it may buy you buckets of dollars, but not a whole lot of food. In a supply chain breakdown, it will eventually become of use as society reaches down to the base level of production it can maintain and a widespread opinion that normal functions will never be restored. In a sense, the currency starts over, and it needs to start with something rare, portable, divisible and identifiable. Which is gold.
So a plague that kills 80% of the world's population might do it if accompanied with chaos, but it's very unlikely. Hence the argument that gold is a relic.
What is more likely is some portion of the globe succumb's to its debtors. The currency remains of value, but nothing in the country is. The domestic demand drops considerably and there appears to be no way out. Nobody is interested in investing new because there is no domestic demand. The value of all assets falls to nearly 0 and still there is no buyer because of the stickiness of the attached debts.
What happens next is a scramble for contagion. Other entities that were healthy but had invested in an area suddenly see a tremendous portion of their assets fall to 0. Perhaps in excess of their capital. Not only have they lost the money there, but they can't raise more money to make good investments. With no new investments being made an unaffected area starts to see its own domestic economy collapse, which in turn likely had loans made to it from other entities also unaffected.
The risk becomes....what happens when all of the long term debt stops performing and nobody can raise new short term debt. The answer is, really bad things, but the last to run out of money, or the ability to produce money, will be the the United States Federal Government. That's how the system works. That's what the world signed up for with Bretton Woods. The last time the world's central banks agreed to anything of such significance.
Should that fall, only the person who is mostly self-sufficient, with the ability to maintain law and order in/around their property, will have a chance at making it through the chaotic times. Hence the prepper term zombies. The millions of hungry desperate people that will stream from the cities in search of food and self preservation. The last producers will not have an ability to move. Like locusts, the horde will consume the seed of the future, and then we fall to hunter/gather types in a murderous world where farming in a solitary spot is simply not safe.
Be sure to watch Game of Thrones...final season premieres tonight!!!
Lets say you buy into the fact that our debt load is unsustainable and that our Fed government has put all $ denominated and debt backed instruments on a trajectory toward ruin. What then?
What are the actual investment opportunities that are available in today's market to protect your nest egg during a significant downturn and devaluation of the dollar?
I've seen articles and commercials to buy and hold real gold. But not sure that is necessarily feasible to buy actual gold and sit on it in your basement or a local safety deposit box. Are there better alternatives in comodities that will hold or even appreciate in value during a crash? Like say a more useful metal like Copper, Zinc, or other?
Finally in a SHTF scenario do you want when you choose the right asset and category what is the correct form to hold it in?
In this scenario, I really don't think it's going to matter what you do or don't do with your money. Your most important resources will be knowing smart, trustworthy people and a strong relationship with God.
On a practical level, I think not living in an urban area helps a lot, along with ability to grow food, knowledge and ability to live without modern conveniences, food storage, etc.
On a practical level, I think not living in an urban area helps a lot, along with ability to grow food, knowledge and ability to live without modern conveniences, food storage, etc.
i would think that if the SHTF people in the cities would be in big trouble. with no space to grow food or even store food; they would be starving in no time. if they lose electricity, its not like people in buildings have backup generators. there are some advantages also like easier access to assistance if there is assistance.
i have some things for a STHF scenario but i am planning on building up more of a stockpile even though i hopefully wont need it. nothing crazy, enough to be self sufficient for a little while.
With guns and ammo city dwellers can get everything they need
guns and ammo are critical but often they are not as common in cities. when i lived in nyc i opted not to get a gun due to the additional hassle. so you probably have a higher % of illegal guns rather than legally owned guns. good for those who were willing to break the law to get them, not good for the other people.
also, its going to be harder to find people with an abundant amount of supplies to rob and some people may shoot back.
i stockpile guns and ammo (nothing crazy but more than i need) for defense. going out to steal from people is a tough situation, id rather defend what i have.
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