Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
The question is new upside rise or tipping point for real washout
Lance Roberts and some other chart watchers have been drawing this design in their posts for a month or so...
The FANGMAN index was off 30 percent from its highs intrday, but recovered most of the loss.
this is from that site:
Tom's Targets Overview: 11/14/2018
26,800 or 24,500 by 12/01/2018
11,000 or 10,100 by 12/01/2018
710 or 750 by 12/01/2018
6,900 or 7,700 by 12/01/2018
2,650 or 2,800 by 12/01/2018
what the heck is anyone supposed to do with this information?!
I've said it before and I'll say it again--For every chart you show me indicating a pattern leading to an expected result, I can show you many more where the exact same pattern leads to nothing at all.
I've said it before and I'll say it again--For every chart you show me indicating a pattern leading to an expected result, I can show you many more where the exact same pattern leads to nothing at all.
That's what bugs me about charting, it seems too little a science and too much an art. I like to think of charting as a really good postdictory indicator (= 'predictory' - 'pre' + 'post' = works better in analyzing the past than in predicting the future).
What I've seen in charting looks logical because you point at a pattern you recognize, you point out similar patterns seen in the past and what happened next, and you predict that is gonna happen next this time too. And sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't.
I've seen charts showing the last several crashes and they look good to me, I mean in terms of explaining the crashes.
My comments seem more overly harsh than I had intended. For example, even if charting is only 33% accurate that's a whole third more than you know than knowing nothing. I think that in some respects the stock market resembles a game, and in game playing I've noticed in many games that there is a "whole new level" that novices don't see, and that it's only when you get good and you realize some new edge (perhaps it's charting) that gives you better results than before?
And that leads us right back into the same question as yesterday. I think we can all agree either the market will crash or has crashed or is gong to crash (... some day), and that since we all know that, the only issue is when it's going to crash.
Does anybody care to offer their guesses? I've reached the point now where I have no idea if we are at the precipice of an impending crash, or at the beginning of a new return to the mostly positive market we have had this year.
Tom's Targets Overview: 11/14/2018
26,800 or 24,500 by 12/01/2018
11,000 or 10,100 by 12/01/2018
710 or 750 by 12/01/2018
6,900 or 7,700 by 12/01/2018
2,650 or 2,800 by 12/01/2018
what the heck is anyone supposed to do with this information?!
I've said it before and I'll say it again--For every chart you show me indicating a pattern leading to an expected result, I can show you many more where the exact same pattern leads to nothing at all.
Not to claim the insight that Ichoro has re charting/analysis, but--
If you read the explanation on the website, I believe it clarifies those numbers as ranging limits that are possible depending on market's vacillation
If you are looking for certainty and surety regarding the market's future, you are looking for a chimera...
That's what bugs me about charting, it seems too little a science and too much an art. I like to think of charting as a really good postdictory indicator (= 'predictory' - 'pre' + 'post' = works better in analyzing the past than in predicting the future).
What I've seen in charting looks logical because you point at a pattern you recognize, you point out similar patterns seen in the past and what happened next, and you predict that is gonna happen next this time too. And sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't.
I've seen charts showing the last several crashes and they look good to me, I mean in terms of explaining the crashes.
My comments seem more overly harsh than I had intended. For example, even if charting is only 33% accurate that's a whole third more than you know than knowing nothing. I think that in some respects the stock market resembles a game, and in game playing I've noticed in many games that there is a "whole new level" that novices don't see, and that it's only when you get good and you realize some new edge (perhaps it's charting) that gives you better results than before?
And that leads us right back into the same question as yesterday. I think we can all agree either the market will crash or has crashed or is gong to crash (... some day), and that since we all know that, the only issue is when it's going to crash.
Does anybody care to offer their guesses? I've reached the point now where I have no idea if we are at the precipice of an impending crash, or at the beginning of a new return to the mostly positive market we have had this year.
I have referred to Lance Roberts's site and his analysis several times
We don't use him as FA. But I find his explanation of charting analysis easier to understand than others
He is really dealing with this market in a defensive mode
And has for most of the year, viewing it with suspicion for various factors like the debt and Fed's policies and effects of QE on the economy and market
He is about protecting what you have gained...which probably sounds very reassuring with so much volatility and giving up of gains...
His recent email was on topic of """confidence" in the market
Right now lot of this selling seems to happen via ETF algorhythims
Which means not from fear or panic but math-generated based on various factors including OTHER ETFs/funds actions...
Read article that commodity trader in Houston I think has gone belly up with his fund because of the volatile NG/oil market--
Of course that really translates to "I didn't know how to cover my ass or your investments when I was making decisions about how those commodities were going to be impacted by factors I could not control"...
Bad part is not only did his clients lose their investments and any gains they might have made along the way, there were also margin loans made to cover positions and that means they are on the hook for extra money...
Never buy on margin...
Last edited by loves2read; 11-21-2018 at 08:45 AM..
I think I already posted that, or in any case that's what I decided long ago, and I can see no reason to change my mind. As a cash investor my worst case is that I can lose it all and get left with nothing. With margins I can lose even more than I had invested, in fact up to whatever my margin line of credit is.
I like the game better when all you can lose is whatever skin you have in the game.
Anyone who isn't only a long term investor should have a margin account because it gives you flexibility.
Now I would say, if you have $50k in your account, don't invest more than $50k. Where margin is useful is it gives you flexibility to buy and sell before your funds settle. You can literally buy $50k AAPL, sell that position, turn around and buy $50k MSFT, sell that position and buy $50k DIS all in the same day. You don't have to wait for the funds to settle before you can use it. As long as you don't buy more than your account balance, you don't have to worry about margin calls or paying high interest rates. You simply use the margin, so you can buy and sell without finding yourself locked out for 3 days.
Tom's Targets Overview: 11/14/2018
26,800 or 24,500 by 12/01/2018
11,000 or 10,100 by 12/01/2018
710 or 750 by 12/01/2018
6,900 or 7,700 by 12/01/2018
2,650 or 2,800 by 12/01/2018
what the heck is anyone supposed to do with this information?!
I've said it before and I'll say it again--For every chart you show me indicating a pattern leading to an expected result, I can show you many more where the exact same pattern leads to nothing at all.
That information is from 11/14. I don't know what his update is to "there should be a drop followed by a rally into December". His site is a good resource for a description of patterns and their associated probabilities as he authored a comprehensive book on chart patterns. A lot of people have been bullish because this is seasonally the most bullish period of the year. I would suggest following his advice over an extended period and evaluating it on that basis.
One has to be aware of potential non-technical developments, mostly from the central banks, that can affect existing trends.
Anyone who isn't only a long term investor should have a margin account because it gives you flexibility.
Now I would say, if you have $50k in your account, don't invest more than $50k. Where margin is useful is it gives you flexibility to buy and sell before your funds settle. You can literally buy $50k AAPL, sell that position, turn around and buy $50k MSFT, sell that position and buy $50k DIS all in the same day.
I don't seem to have a problem then. As soon as my SELL order is confirmed executed my sales proceeds become immediately available for trading on new securities.
I don't have any settlement lock out when I sell. They settle it as soon as it executes. There are some behind the scenes signs that it's not totally settled but they do let me trade with the money. The behind the scenes part limits me to 2-3 days in moving the money back to my checking or money market account.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
