Why are long yields falling? (pension, tax, treasuries, economic)

[mathjak107]

Originally Posted by hikernut

Economist is one of the few careers where one can be wrong, even colossally wrong, much of the time and stay employed. Heck, they can even get some really nice awards.

but , when they are standing on that unemployment line at last they know why

[hikernut]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

but , when they are standing on that unemployment line at last they know why

Like when the Psychic Friends Network shut down. The workers would seen it coming

[mathjak107]

i went to a psychic convention once .everyone just kept going "where do i know you from ?"

[turkey-head]

I don't claim to know what's going to happen, but I find this concerning:



https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

[mathjak107]

There has been a lot of research into the predictability of yield curves . The only comparison that has a 100% track record as far as predicting a recession is the 3 month vs 10 year . That has predicted every recession to date with no false readings.
All other comparisons have been wrong at times when they inverted

[FiveLoaves]

The above chart is very enlightening....how did you get the overlay showing recessionary periods ?? Your link doesn't show them. We all know when they occurred, it's just nice to see them on the chart.

I think if you use the 3 month vs 10 year -- it would invert too late. I use 2 yr/10 yr as a blinking yellow light, not a red flare.

[mathjak107]

3 month vs 10 year is said to be the most accurate with no false signals

[FiveLoaves]

The 3 mo / 10 yr is currently about 80 basis points......would that raise a caution flag ??

i'm interested in a heads up, not any outright Sell Signal. When would this indicator flash ??

[mathjak107]

the author says not at this point . there is still a comfortable spread .

[COcheesehead]

Originally Posted by turkey-head

I don't claim to know what's going to happen, but I find this concerning:



https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

I've seen other charts like this, but how they relate to interest coverage on small caps. End result is the same. Something is brewing and it's not the next expansion.