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i hope i was wrong but in that poll here the beginning of the year i was one of i think 2 who said they thought 2018 would end down . just for no other reason then the reversion to the mean from all the gains since 2008 have to start at some point .
As posters have supplied sources saying just the opposite all this thread shows is nobody knows what will happen.
Correct and why it's just plain foolish not to either take some profits off the table and go into cash, or hedge your money. It happened 10 years ago - a crash - and it could happen again - and there's no guarantee that we are going to get bailed out next time with low interest rates and debt.
taking money off the table is so easy . but as any investor who has been doing this a while can tell you , getting it back in at a point that makes it worth trying is the hardest thing to do .
reversals always have the biggest gains way before things look any different . it looks like nothing more than a suckers rally and many times it is . but when that reversal comes most of the time you don't jump in right away and by the time you do you missed enough to not make it risk trying .
how many here have tried this and ended up throwing in the towel buying in higher than they bailed out ?
likely a whole lot more then gained any advantage .
taking money off the table is so easy . but as any investor who has been doing this a while can tell you , getting it back in at a point that makes it worth trying is the hardest thing to do .
reversals always have the biggest gains way before things look any different . it looks like nothing more than a suckers rally and many times it is . but when that reversal comes most of the time you don't jump in right away and by the time you do you missed enough to not make it risk trying .
how many here have tried this and ended up throwing in the towel buying in higher than they bailed out ?
likely a whole lot more then gained any advantage .
Yep. And how many listened to the predictions and went to cash and missed out on more gains via the market. I know several who pulled back in '05, after the drop and before yet another big run up.
If you are retired and want to take profits I understand, but timing the market in general is a fool's bet.
As posters have supplied sources saying just the opposite all this thread shows is nobody knows what will happen.
Don't know if you watched--
The point was that he made the commentary Oct 1 before any of the volatility/downturns started
I read Lance Robert's newletter and watch some of their blogs-
He has been warning for some time that this market could be turning
Has cautioned that they have been putting in hedges at lower points if support was needed and recommended people trim losing positions and free up cash
He is more of a "perma bear" but he claims he is not a bear or a bull--he just wants to protect investments from loss whether the market is going up or down...
Jesse Columbo, one of his investment partners, had article yesterday which was a replay from one earlier that this Monday uptick which wasn't didn't really change any fundamentals--
So they are advocating selling into rallies...holding cash--
Protection more than passive
Yep. And how many listened to the predictions and went to cash and missed out on more gains via the market. I know several who pulled back in '05, after the drop and before yet another big run up.
If you are retired and want to take profits I understand, but timing the market in general is a fool's bet.
most of us make adjustments for retirement , but that has more to do with a plan then timing things .
we went from 100% equities to 60% a few years pre retirement and about 40-50% in retirement and that is the plan .
at times like now i made the decision to go to a model with more defensive supporting assets prior to the drop but equities are still in the 40-50% range . that equity allocation stays regardless of whether i go back to the insight models fully or not . right now i use the insight growth model which is 100% equities by itself for the equity portion with my s&p 500 fund
but the bond portion has long term treasuries , ultra short term bonds and gold . overall it is still in the 40-50% range equity wise taken in it's entirety .
taking money off the table is so easy . but as any investor who has been doing this a while can tell you , getting it back in at a point that makes it worth trying is the hardest thing to do .
reversals always have the biggest gains way before things look any different . it looks like nothing more than a suckers rally and many times it is . but when that reversal comes most of the time you don't jump in right away and by the time you do you missed enough to not make it risk trying .
how many here have tried this and ended up throwing in the towel buying in higher than they bailed out ?
likely a whole lot more then gained any advantage .
Yep
We are proof of that...
Sold out pre-election based on FOT/fear of Trump
And waited for long while before getting back in as market went up
Now at higher price point and while we have more fixed income assets than equities
I don't like losing money at any time really
Wish our advisor was not as "passive" about protecting equities in times like this...
i would say most of us pulled it off at least once successfully , but attempting to duplicate those results again generally don't end well
May as well go to the track at this point. Play a trifecta. This market is nothing more than gambling now.
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