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I am trying to drop out of investing in this economy but the tax structure is forcing me to stay in the market. So far investment in energy services and the socialized Nordic economies have done and are continuing to do fairly well. With effectively stagnant wages and an actual inflation rate of 5%+ I have much less cash to invest because most of my expenses are fixed.
I'm still dollar cost averaging, although slightly less into equities (I rarely buy individual stocks and neither should you) due to my age.
The stock market will outperform consistently over any 10 year period you care to name.
john23 wrote:
I have 2 points to make about your post; looking at a "snapshot" is not the way to look at investments, look at the long term. And remember it's too easy for others to check up on what you write, you're WRONG on 4 of the 5. Some of them are down over 8 years, but other than Intel all are UP over 20% over 10 years.
Again, look at the timeline/trend, not a snapshot at one particular time.
golfgod
I was looking at 10 year charts of them, they're all basically flat.
MSFT at $28, where it was in late 98.
INTC at $20.91, spring 98.
Dell, spring 98. And GE summer 98.
Depending on the industry, some stocks are where they were in 1990 or 80. Mighty GM for example. Now at $19. Basically anyone thats bought that stock over the last 30 years has lost money (at least on paper).
IP, trading where it was in the early 90's. Some of the pharmecuticals are back to where they were in 97, 98, like MRK and PFE.
Of course some have done incredible, in energy or tech.
I think GE, DELL, INTC, the big stocks that got over extended in the 90's...the same thing will happen to them as happened to railroads, planes, early car manufacturers, RCA in the 20's...to the nifty fifty stocks in the early 70's. Everyone piled in, it was a new era, new economy, and ultimately everyone loses.
Got way too expensive, over extended.
I also wonder about the earnings figures for stocks in general, I wonder if they're going to hold. The way Fannie Mae wrote off billions, or others.
i am investing in petroleum products, every time i go to the gas pump, its was 43 bucks to fill up my honda civic this evening. i am helping the economy. but i got the chain on my bicycle lubed just in case.
good day on Wall Street. I was up a little over 3% today putting me at 12% YTD. FSNGX is a damn good fund to be in with energy spiking. The it's averaged over 30% return over the last five years. It also recently got bumped up to 4 star rating from morningstar.
Assets may became cheap, but it appears less likely that we will revitalize our manufacturing infrastructure. We lack the labor force willing to perform that type of labor for that level of pay. But global stocks, metals and commodities seem good hedges.
I think staying diversified in stocks, bonds, real estate, cash and maybe some ETFs is the easiest and a prudent thing to do for investing. The heavy lifting is all taken care of by the market then. By the way, what do you all think the prospects are for bonds dropping over the ensuing year? It is not as cut and dry as Bernanke holding rates or increasing them. The market itself sets interest rates long term and the Fed merely capitulates along. If the fear of inflation or just a greater risk premium is demanded by the market, the rug could be pulled out from under bond prices.
Haven't changed a thing and my portfolio is an aggressive but diversified set up in 11 different funds under a managed account. Overall, I'm down about 2.7% this year but things may be heading in the right direction after last week's market numbers.
Harbor International, Marsico Growth and the Eaton Vance are the strongest (relatively speaking) while my weakest is a Wells Fargo small cap fund. Soon I'll have enough equity to branch out to individual stocks and away from some of the mutuals to create a more tax efficient portfolio.
Last edited by muffinman; 04-20-2008 at 09:26 AM..
That is a capital idea to minimize immediate tax obligations. I don't mind paying the taxes as I go when I get distributions in my mutual funds. The rub is cost basis accounting years down the road for shares you dollar-cost averaged into and paid taxes on for distribution gains. I guess delaying taxes is really the name of the game if not simply other than the fact you pay them off in cheaper dollars years later as long as taxes do not rise to draconian rates. Index funds all the way and Roth IRAS too!
I started moving dollars to Euros, not very long ago, when the Euro was $1.12. Now the Euro is @ $1.60. And, I get 7.1% interest on a simple passbook savings account, government insured up to E 1,000,000.
I don't want to be bothered doing the math...looks like 30% to 40% per year profit to me. And free health care, eventually.
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Stay diversified
