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I am surprised how much fiscal policy has lagged here especially with monetary policy already essentially at the zero-bound. Unless the ultimate goal is for a an insolvency event and to user in a great reset.......
Are you expecting the great reset to be a US only thing or do world leaders plan to coordinate? Will Merkel go along? Trudeau?
If there were no vaccine on the horizon, I'd sell everything right now. But what do you do when several promising vaccines are only weeks/months away? I feel like it's raining money again and the last time I said that bad things happened.
Aren't savings at an all time high right now? Not only has the stock market been going up but so have home prices, so couldn't those in forbearance just sell their home if they really needed to? In the markets I follow, things are hot both on the home prices and rent side(Northern VA/ North Florida).
I believe the PSAVERT for October was around 13.5% and topped in April above 33%. Past handful of years it has trended in the 6-8% range. But within this data we are seeing a tremendous division between the haves and the have-nots. According to a Fed report out last year, 40% of Americans don't even have $400 in savings for an emergency expense. Also, about 70% of low-wage earners working in the highest-rent ZIP codes lost their jobs during the initial shutdown contributing even more to the wealth/inequality record gaps that exist in our society today.
With all of this said, household debt just increased .6% to a new record high of $14.35 trillion.
In terms of those in forbearance putting their homes on the market to cover backed payments and future payments when reinstituted, if enough do that at once.......
Are you expecting the great reset to be a US only thing or do world leaders plan to coordinate? Will Merkel go along? Trudeau?
100% a global event. Trudeau was just talking about the "reset" within the past couple of weeks. Klaus Schwab out of the WEF just put out a book talking about how the world needs to use COVID as an opportunity for the reset. Now a handful of media outlets are trying to marginalize it as a "conspiracy theory" but the info is verbatim from their (WEF and others) own official sites.
If there were no vaccine on the horizon, I'd sell everything right now. But what do you do when several promising vaccines are only weeks/months away? I feel like it's raining money again and the last time I said that bad things happened.
It is certainly raining money again lol. The problem with that is fiscal policy has lagged substantially and monetary policy is essentially at the zero-bound. So structurally it is not actually raining money. With that said there is either a massive dislocation in the current market/expectations or an epic amount of fiscal policy surprise rain is about to fall out of nowhere.........
I believe the PSAVERT for October was around 13.5% and topped in April above 33%. Past handful of years it has trended in the 6-8% range. But within this data we are seeing a tremendous division between the haves and the have-nots. According to a Fed report out last year, 40% of Americans don't even have $400 in savings for an emergency expense. Also, about 70% of low-wage earners working in the highest-rent ZIP codes lost their jobs during the initial shutdown contributing even more to the wealth/inequality record gaps that exist in our society today.
With all of this said, household debt just increased .6% to a new record high of $14.35 trillion.
In terms of those in forbearance putting their homes on the market to cover backed payments and future payments when reinstituted, if enough do that at once.......
I think the inequality is a concern and we could see a crypto type of UBI coming as you have stated, but wouldn't that just add to inflationary pressures?
As for the forbearance I just don't see them all coming on the market at once to cause a meaningful correction in home prices. Even if banks forced people to sell their homes it would take years for it to play out, banks and real estate move slow especially distressed sales. In the more vulnerable markets I still see foreclosures being listed that were bought 15 years ago during the housing bubble. I think things being back to normal will be more of a stress on home prices as people feel comfortable listing their homes and inventory increases. Even then, I don't see anything too drastic happening with home prices.
I think the inequality is a concern and we could see a crypto type of UBI coming as you have stated, but wouldn't that just add to inflationary pressures?
As for the forbearance I just don't see them all coming on the market at once to cause a meaningful correction in home prices. Even if banks forced people to sell their homes it would take years for it to play out, banks and real estate move slow especially distressed sales. In the more vulnerable markets I still see foreclosures being listed that were bought 15 years ago during the housing bubble. I think things being back to normal will be more of a stress on home prices as people feel comfortable listing their homes and inventory increases. Even then, I don't see anything too drastic happening with home prices.
Yes, the digital UBI will definitely be inflationary but inflation will take some time to manifest. I don't think we will see any significant inflation for the next 12-18 months even with a digital UBI type system implemented in 2021. And in order to get such a "radical" program as a digital UBI implemented, I think we will need to see a cataclysmic-type bust event first to have the "will" to pass such a program. Bust first then inflation later.
And about housing, yes I think it will lag. I am not bullish on the housing market in general looking out over the next few years. Pockets will remain elevated from people looking to escape high tax/high COL areas.
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