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Respectfully, while it may be a problem for you I don't think that's a view shared by all. However, I didn't say anything about how I value any stock; rather, that the other poster was disingenuous by not using year over year numbers in his example but instead focusing on what the analysts were predicting for the quarter.
And I think this is the only guarantee I will make when it comes to the stock market: it's going to continue to be a bumpy ride so buckle up, buttercup!
There are many ways to value a stock. You use year-over-year numbers. Fine. Do it. Others look at the ratios: P/E, P/EG, P/Book, and so forth. And yes, it is appropriate to look at the trailing four-quarter earnings and current price to estimate if the stock is overvalued. If I had gone back eight quarters, we would have seen some negative earnings.
The title of this thread is "TSLA going crush q4 earnings 2020". Well, did they crush q4 earnings? That is the topic. And they missed by 67%!! Disingenuous means "lying". But we're not lying about them missing the q4 estimate, eh?
And as for name calling, I guess you fit into that category also.
Sorry that your feelings got hurt. I didn't realize that the C-D investing forum was supposed to be a safe space for Teslanaires. Once you and the others become billionaires on your TSLA holdings, I will gladly mow your lawns during retirement.
Curious what your other 4 would be?? There’s only two on my long term must have list - AAPL and MSFT, and I own them both. TSLA is not on my list. What would your other 4 be??
I’d say AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, CRSP (CRSP is the only wild card I’d need to keep checking to make sure genomic editing doesn’t end up being a huge failure).
There are many ways to value a stock. You use year-over-year numbers. Fine. Do it. Others look at the ratios: P/E, P/EG, P/Book, and so forth. And yes, it is appropriate to look at the trailing four-quarter earnings and current price to estimate if the stock is overvalued. If I had gone back eight quarters, we would have seen some negative earnings.
As I discussed with you in the other "how to value growth" thread, no it is not mathematically appropriate to value fast growing companies by looking at past and current earnings.
All you can do is use that earnings information to update your confidence in the chances of what you expect future earnings to look like.
In the case of Tesla, with the totally of the news released with earnings, the Q4 results don't negatively impact my estimate of future earnings growth. In fact, by learning they have removed all bottlenecks in their own cell production, this updates my future earnings to more bullish than before.
As I discussed with you in the other "how to value growth" thread, no it is not mathematically appropriate to value fast growing companies by looking at past and current earnings.
All you can do is use that earnings information to update your confidence in the chances of what you expect future earnings to look like.
In the case of Tesla, with the totally of the news released with earnings, the Q4 results don't negatively impact my estimate of future earnings growth. In fact, by learning they have removed all bottlenecks in their own cell production, this updates my future earnings to more bullish than before.
No disagreement with your post other than the emboldened phrase.
I have no problem with the way that you value TSLA for yourself. But to state that the way that someone else values the stock is not mathematically appropriate is a bit ridiculous. I can value TSLA any way that I want to, and it is "mathematically" appropriate. (Please correct my math if it is wrong.)
If TSLA earnings remain at $0.63/share/year, then it will take 1,200 plus years of pay back if the price stays at $793. Is that likely? Probably not. Earnings can go up; earnings can go down. Time will tell.
What is clear is that TSLA has missed the predicted earnings for several quarters now. Yes, the earnings are going up, but not at rocket speed, unlike the price.
I have no problem with the way that you value TSLA for yourself. But to state that the way that someone else values the stock is not mathematically appropriate is a bit ridiculous. I can value TSLA any way that I want to, and it is "mathematically" appropriate. (Please correct my math if it is wrong.)
If TSLA earnings remain at $0.63/share/year, then it will take 1,200 plus years of pay back if the price stays at $793. Is that likely? Probably not. Earnings can go up; earnings can go down. Time will tell.
What is clear is that TSLA has missed the predicted earnings for several quarters now. Yes, the earnings are going up, but not at rocket speed, unlike the price.
Yep, this is the key. At some point, the share price is going to take a hit “if” they continue to underdeliver. And I don’t see how that’s even debatable.
I didn’t say the stock price hasn’t performed well over the past year. My point was the exact opposite in fact. It’s performed too well to be sustainable over the next few years because it’s gotten too far ahead of itself. Just my opinion of course. Only time will tell. But I will add that Tesla is the king of over promise, underdeliver. They do it time and again. Eventually that catches up to you.
I agree, this has been an amazing run. And I wish Elon was more composed on the conference calls. It's a bit painful to listen to him. And with most of my positions, I'm not married to them so if they drop too much I'll dump them. I've been doing this too long to watch unrealized gains become just that, unrealized.
Elon said he will serve as CEo for a few more years.
Where does he find time to tweet and make comments on GME,Bitcoin and his own TSLA?Shop on ETSY and leave comments
If I could only own 5 companies to hold long-term, TSLA would be one of them.
If the broader market takes a turn, what are the odds TSLA tests MA200 around $400? That’s one of my biggest fears for those heavily invested in something like TSLA right now. The floor is very low relative to current share price if the market corrects.
If the broader market takes a turn, what are the odds TSLA tests MA200 around $400? That’s one of my biggest fears for those heavily invested in something like TSLA right now. The floor is very low relative to current share price if the market corrects.
It will most likely happen if the market has a major correction, jsut like the market, if you are long term investor... hold on and you will be up again in the future
TSLA going to crush Q4 earnings AND 2020 annual earnings (I'm expecting $950 before Feb 10th)
Well, Feb 10th has come and gone and I was wondering why this thread hadn't been bumped yet this month.
Oh, I see. $804 on the 10th and falling .... okay, I get it now.
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