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Just a snapshot of a long term chart of the S&P 500 as of the date of this post. Should be interesting to see what the future holds, after basically a nonstop bull market for 14 years.
I usually provide the source for quotes, but this one didn't save for some reason. It's from 2018 before the midterms, and the results still hold true:
Since 1946, there have been 18 midterm elections. Stocks were higher 12 months after every single one. Every single one. That’s 18 for 18.
Since 1946, stocks have risen an average of 17% in the year after a midterm. And if you measure from the yearly midterm lows, the results are even better. From their lows, stocks jumped an average of 32% over the next 12 months. For perspective, that’s more than double the average performance for stocks in all years. We’re also entering the third year of a presidential term, which is historically the strongest year for stocks.
This time is different because of the FED. The midterm elections are one thing, but we have way more stuff going on right now that super-cedes it. The FED and QT are dominant right now in driving stocks. Russia-Ukraine, Oil, Inflation, etc. All more influential right now than the midterms. Maybe that shifts a bit later this year, but I think the FED/QT will remain the dominant factor on stocks for the foreseeable future.
Time will tell for sure. My portfolio has always been Nasdaq-heavy, so 2022 hasn't felt all that good lol! But I've always sold weekly covered calls on most of my positions, so I'll continue to add bit by bit during this downturn.
This time is different because of the FED. The midterm elections are one thing, but we have way more stuff going on right now that super-cedes it. The FED and QT are dominant right now in driving stocks. Russia-Ukraine, Oil, Inflation, etc. All more influential right now than the midterms. Maybe that shifts a bit later this year, but I think the FED/QT will remain the dominant factor on stocks for the foreseeable future.
People always have a "because of" reason for why this time it's going to be different.
Unless you're new to investing, a bear market and/or recession is not something worth panicking over. In fact, it's a great opportunity to buy some beaten down stocks.
Unless you're new to investing, a bear market and/or recession is not something worth panicking over. In fact, it's a great opportunity to buy some beaten down stocks.
Amen to that!! Every past decline seems like an opportunity, while every future decline seems like a risk.
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