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Maybe. Maybe not. What happened to those who panic sold in 2008-2009? What happened to savvy investors who recognized an opportunity and continued to buy?
“History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” – Mark Twain.
Exactly. Forget about interest rates, recessions, Putin, QT and bear markets. The question we should all be asking ourselves right now is - "What do I want my portfolio to look like at the start of the next bull market?"
Quote:
"Every past decline looks like an opportunity. Every future decline looks like a risk."
Exactly. Forget about interest rates, recessions, Putin, QT and bear markets. The question we should all be asking ourselves right now is - "What do I want my portfolio to look like at the start of the next bull market?"
Quote:
"Every past decline looks like an opportunity. Every future decline looks like a risk."
- Morgan Housel
Fear. Greed. Fear. Greed. Some things never change. For long-term investors, it is best to ignore the noise.
I actually expect us to go sideways for awhile. Globalization and falling trade barriers is what I've seen in my lifetime. I've never seen interest rates go up for an extended period of time. I've never seen supply chain issues like we're having now. I think over time the market is going to price back in some risk that had been ignored for awhile. I also think dividends will come back into vogue once we go sideways long enough. We'll go into recession, but it will be Fed controlled. It will be mild, but long. The major thing to watch is whether or not the bond market freezes up as the Fed takes down her balance sheet.
Locally it will be harder. Companies will run out of runway and successor rounds will be impacted when the 2 win 20 lose model starts to not be as sanguine. Tech multiples could stay lower for awhile.
My baseless prediction is that I will suffer a personal recession from 2024-2028 whereby I'll see 100% loss on my kid going to college and my wife buying nice things.
My baseless prediction is that I will suffer a personal recession from 2024-2028 whereby I'll see 100% loss on my kid going to college and my wife buying nice things.
At least she will be helping to confirm your hypothesis that luxury spending will continue to be robust!
this latest correction/bear market or whatever you want to call it has convinced me even further that picking individual stocks and trying to dart in and out is not only nearly impossible , but is a mentally agonizing game....in "real life" I know too many people that are just a mental mess from all this.....and have gotten clobbered financially...
own index funds and have a large equity allocation if you want or need your money to grow over time......simple....
any hope that the SPX will recover to it's 2021 close of 4766 anytime in the near future (i.e. within 1-2 years)?
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