[las vegas drunk]

Originally Posted by lvoc

.
Again we could have some economic tragedy take place and kick the whole country back into recession or even depression.

LOL, I actually agree with you for once.

[Trader Joe99]

Originally Posted by lvoc

Let us stick to Las Vegas where we actually can see what is going on.

Sold 32507 Single Family Homes last year. 7902 of them were VA/FHA. That is a little less than 25%. Roughly 45% was cash and the remainder conventional.

That says less than 25% of the buyers are leveraged.

The real problem is no product for the low end owner occupant. So we have the first time buyer locked out of the market. Even with 20% down they can't get in. Need 30% or more to deal with the appraisal.

Barring a disaster brought on by sequestration or such it could work out. Get the deficit down over the next ten years. There is nothing like a booming economy to increase tax revenues.

I can see clearly what is going on in Las Vegas and around the country....can you????
You have trained yourself to see only the good news. That means you are heading for a fall. You will have to meet and ultimately befriend the shadow, which is the other side of the good news.
Nothing is good as it appears to be in this country.
There will be no real growth in Las Vegas or in this country until we DESTROY all BAD debt that was accumulated during the last positive business cycle. That is what Deflation is for. You don't fight and try to manipulate deflation....it doesn't work. We need deflation....get it??????
So, we need higher interest rates badly, to begin the deleveraging process for real (0% interest rates do not encourage deleveraging but releveraging -- refinancing is not the same thing as deleveraging, in truth, although it can help servicing costs -- but this will require a perpetual ZIRP to contiue to save bad debt, which we cannot afford (look at Japan) -- and we also need to start rewarding savers, who are the ones who jump start a real growth period, not speculators loaded with debt (the ones Bernanke is trying to save).

[Trader Joe99]

Again we could have3 some economic tragedy take place and kick the whole country back into recession or even depression

.

Again, you don't get it, don't you.
What we are doing today is not recovery.....it's simply kicking the can down the road and making it worse. The longer we succeed to kick the can down the road - the worst fall is going to be.

Ben Bernanke needs economic growth to bail out his decision to buy toxic debt with taxpayer money for the American taxpayer but he can't get real economic growth until he stops protecting all the bad debt that keeps the economic cycle from unfolding.

[lvoc]

Originally Posted by Trader Joe99

.

Again, you don't get it, don't you.
What we are doing today is not recovery.....it's simply kicking the can down the road and making it worse. The longer we succeed to kick the can down the road - the worst fall is going to be.

Ben Bernanke needs economic growth to bail out his decision to buy toxic debt with taxpayer money for the American taxpayer but he can't get real economic growth until he stops protecting all the bad debt that keeps the economic cycle from unfolding.

Nonsense piled higher and deeper does not change. It is still nonsense.

The pay the debt austerity bag is playing in Europe. Watch them crash and hope they don't take us down with them.

So far everything says Krugman was correct. The initial stimulus was not nearly enough. If we had pored two or three trillion into that we would now have a strong and growing economy.

Now let us get back to Las Vegas. LV is doing well and will continue doing well as long as the country does not crash. So say a prayer that cool heads prevail and we get rid of sequestration.

[WestieJeff]

I think your point has been made.

How many times you intend to repeat nearly exactly the same comments?

No matter how many times you repeat, many will disagree with you.

Originally Posted by Trader Joe99

.
Again, you don't get it, don't you.
What we are doing today is not recovery.....it's simply kicking the can down the road and making it worse. The longer we succeed to kick the can down the road - the worst fall is going to be.

Ben Bernanke needs economic growth to bail out his decision to buy toxic debt with taxpayer money for the American taxpayer but he can't get real economic growth until he stops protecting all the bad debt that keeps the economic cycle from unfolding.

[Tarara Boomdea]

Originally Posted by VegasVicsezhowdy

RealtyTrac has reported a spike in default notices in January (87% increase from a year ago).

Yes, and there should be more homeowners putting their places up for sale because their equity has increased or if still underwater, to take advantage of the extension of the Mortgage Forgiveness Act and short sell before the end of the year.

I am listening to Real Estate Live on 720 AM KDWN and the show's hosts just said prices will tank a year from now.

They also commented on all the contradictory info on the market

[aardogfsu]

Originally Posted by tbill618

There is plenty of reason to believe 2012 marked a low in prices. One being the price of housing values, adjusted for inflation, are down to normal levels going back over 100 years. Housing has normally not a good investment. It is a good savings vehicle in that it is traditionally pretty stable and it is the one way the average person can use leverage to expand their wealth. Of course, going to fiat money and the subsequent inflationary years certainly helped debtors.

That being said, anyone who is rushing into buying a house right now, getting into bidding wars, is setting themselves up for trouble. Low interest rates won't last forever. They can't. Whomever bought the past two years is sitting pretty but those who are jumping in now might see the exogenous shock that hits the LV economy.

I think there are still good buys out there, not as good as 2 years ago though. Just have to be patient.

[aardogfsu]

Would rather have my money in a rented out house bought last week than $xxx,xxx sitting in a bank gaining less than 1%.

[Tarara Boomdea]

Mandelman Matters, February 15
About foreclosures, our housing markets, and economic recovery…oh, and lying.

Talking about foreclosures, of lack of, affect the recovery and California's "AB 284". Nevada's mentioned specifically in the P.S. at the end:

"P.S. Want another economics lesson? Foreclosures slow, repossessions slow… inventory falls… so scarcity makes prices rise… then banks start foreclosing judicially as they’ve already started to in Nevada and Oregon… foreclosures rise again… prices fall again… and presto more losses in real estate market…"

Also (just remembered that this was already posted by tbill618, but good to mention again):

"Boomerang Foreclosures" Are Back As Bernanke's Second Housing Bubble Begins To Pop
Tyler Durden on 02/14/2013

"Because while the Homeowners Bill of Rights managed to grind foreclosure activity to a halt in California, what is happening elsewhere is the dreaded Boomerang Foreclosure phenomenon, or, said simply, redefaults.

In other words, those homeowners who tried to take advantage of the most recent housing bubble mania created over the past year by the unholy trinity of the Fed (open-ended liquidity, REO-to-Rent programs, and $40 billion in monthly purchases of MBS), foreign buyers (who launder illicit money courtesy of the NAR's anti-money laundering exemption and park it in ultra luxury US real estate, usually sight-unseen) and of course, the banks, who with the aid of the robosigning fiasco and the Homeowner Bill of Rights, have over the past year subsidized the housing market by keeping non-cash flow generating mortgages on their books in exchange for a wholesale subsidizied rise in housing prices, ran out of cash before they could flip the "hot potato" that is the house they just bought, to a greater fool, and since they had no actual cash to pay the mortgage with, and with no fear of retribution, handed it right back to the bank.

As the chart below shows, while California foreclosure activity is collapsing, things in other places are starting to indicate that the second housing bubble blown by Bernanke in 5 years, is finally starting to crack:

"

[aardogfsu]

Anyone who makes a good living shouldn't be afraid to put their money in RE right now if they can do so without getting into too much debt. I'd almost rather see my $250k house be at $210k three years from now...that's very good news if I love living in Las Vegas, plan on being here for a while and anticipate going bigger and better down the road. Would much rather pay $750k than $1.2m if that time ever comes. All previous properties become rental properties with positive cash flow owned outright anyway.