[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by mresort

Because I have seen so many examples last year that many people actuallty made sizable profit in the low end market.

My colleague bought a 48K condo and sold it at 63K. A 30% return in just 6 months.
An out of town friend bought a SFH in NW for 86K and sold it at 105K. A 22% return in four months.
My brother-in-law bought an old SFH in SW for 42K...put 20K to remodel it...sold it for 85K. A 40% return in a few months.
Someone here bought a 35K condo in Summerlin, sold it at 55K half a year later. 57% return.

Again, it's no surprise that price stabilization would start at the low end of the market. I don't dispute that. However, if the overall median price continues downward than we know the strength in the low end segment is being offset by continued weakness in the mid or upper segments. You acknowledged this point just a few posts ago -

Originally Posted by mresort

Of course overall the market may continue to drop a little bit, but this is only for the middle and high end market.......

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

I don't think it's much of a surprise that stabilization of the market would start at the lower end of market. However, that's not what Clark was alluding to. You may not have been reading the forum long enough to know that a particular prognosticator on this board has been telling us for at least a year that "the trends couldn't continue" and that "something had to give."

You are off into your out of context stunt. The trend that couldn't continue was a 2008 thought on volume...it was absolutely correct.

Then the quote.

"I doubt that. And I certainly hope you are incorrect. I would in fact suggest that something gives in the next 90 days. The present trends are simply unsustainable."

I also made a projection that we had turned the corner about 90 days later.

Since July of 2009 the average and median have been basically flat.

That all sounds like I had it just right....

Looking at the numbers since that statement it's pretty clear that the one trend that has sustained itself quite well is the downward slope of the median SFR housing price. Yes, something did give in the next 90 days...housing prices.

March 2009 SFR median housing price - $149K
January 2010 SFR median housing price - $134.9K
Change (-9.5%)

And restated for August of 2009 to February of 2010
August 2009 SFR median housing price - $135.5K
February 2010 SFR median housing price - $135.7K
Change +0.15%

Face it - We hit the bottom at the end of the 2Q of 2009. Since then we have bounced along the bottom.

It remains unclear when the bottom ends...should be an interesting spring.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

You are off into your out of context stunt. The trend that couldn't continue was a 2008 thought on volume...it was absolutely correct.

Then the quote.

"I doubt that. And I certainly hope you are incorrect. I would in fact suggest that something gives in the next 90 days. The present trends are simply unsustainable."

Ah, the usual nonsense that you were quoted out of context. Here is the discussion, which took place in 2009, not 2008. It's very clear that it was housing prices being discussed, not volume.

Originally Posted by olecapt

This will have little long term impact. The economy will turn eventually and eventually the new build industry will return. I think a few years yet but eventually. And then we will still have the growth strictures created by BLM. And prices will again rise.

I also made a projection that we had turned the corner about 90 days later.

As has been noted by many others, if you guess often enough, you'll finally get it right.

And restated for August of 2009 to February of 2010
August 2009 SFR median housing price - $135.5K
February 2010 SFR median housing price - $135.7K
Change +0.15%

And restated since you told geos in March of '09 that present trends were unsustainable and that something had to give, we have -

March 2009 SFR median housing price - $149K
February 2010 SFR median housing price - $135.7K
Change (-9%)

The unsustainable trend has done just that for 11 months. Yes, something did give - housing prices.

It remains unclear when the bottom ends...should be an interesting spring.

Interesting times. Present trends can not be maintained. Something's got to give. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

Ah, the usual nonsense that you were quoted out of context. Here is the discussion, which took place in 2009, not 2008. It's very clear that it was housing prices being discussed, not volume. As has been noted by many others, if you guess often enough, you'll finally get it right.And restated since you told geos in March of '09 that present trends were unsustainable and that something had to give, we have -

March 2009 SFR median housing price - $149K
February 2010 SFR median housing price - $135.7K
Change (-9%)

The unsustainable trend has done just that for 11 months. Yes, something did give - housing prices. Interesting times. Present trends can not be maintained. Something's got to give. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

YOu simply don't follow this stuff do you?

The trend was unsustainable. And in just about the projected time frame it went away. The bottom was called and has now held for 8 months.

Sorry Tony. I actually am batting pretty good.

That you cannot deal with truth is too bad. You will just have to deal with it.

[mresort]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

Again, it's no surprise that price stabilization would start at the low end of the market. I don't dispute that. However, if the overall median price continues downward than we know the strength in the low end segment is being offset by continued weakness in the mid or upper segments. You acknowledged this point just a few posts ago -

People who didn't invest in the stock market last year are extremely regretful now. I still remember when I bought LVS, MGM, C, BAC last February almost all of my friends were laughing at me. I kept telling them the market would bottom out very soon and the current downward trend couldn't maintain forever. They just refused to believe me but chose to listen to those "experts"/"analysts"/"economists" opinion. When the market clearly picked up last March, they have already missed the boat. Missing the rock bottom price, they were not willing to enter the stock market because they wanted it to drop back to the bottom so that they wouldn't "overpay" it. Well the market kept climbing from 6500 all the way to 10500. Once you realize there the bottom was, you have clearly missed the boat already.

Same thing here in Las Vegas. I always tell people if they have extra money they should pick up some good deals here. Choose the right location and pay the right price. "A climate of fear is investors' best friend". "When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble".

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

YOu simply don't follow this stuff do you?

The trend was unsustainable. And in just about the projected time frame it went away. The bottom was called and has now held for 8 months.

Sorry Tony. I actually am batting pretty good.

That you cannot deal with truth is too bad. You will just have to deal with it.

It's a little difficult to claim you were talking about volume when the entire conversation is posted, isn't it? Geos said prices going up would be "at some distant point." You went on with your usual mantra as to why he was wrong. 11 months later, who was right? What has the median housing price trend done in the year since you told geos it was unsustainable?

You've called the bottom many times. Particularly, in the LVRJ forum you called the bottom years ago. Sorry Olecapt. Your batting average is laughable. The truth hurts sometimes.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by mresort

People who didn't invest in the stock market last year are extremely regretful now. I still remember when I bought LVS, MGM, C, BAC last February almost all of my friends were laughing at me. I kept telling them the market would bottom out very soon and the current downward trend couldn't maintain forever. They just refused to believe me but chose to listen to those "experts"/"analysts"/"economists" opinion. When the market clearly picked up last March, they have already missed the boat. Missing the rock bottom price, they were not willing to enter the stock market because they wanted it to drop back to the bottom so that they wouldn't "overpay" it. Well the market kept climbing from 6500 all the way to 10500. Once you realize there the bottom was, you have clearly missed the boat already.

Same thing here in Las Vegas. I always tell people if they have extra money they should pick up some good deals here. Choose the right location and pay the right price. "A climate of fear is investors' best friend". "When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble".

mresort, I can't make it much more clear than what I've already stated. You're somewhat preaching to the choir as I bought in Vegas early last summer. That doesn't change the fact that the "unsustainable" overall market trend has been down over the last year.

[mresort]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

mresort, I can't make it much more clear than what I've already stated. You're somewhat preaching to the choir as I bought in Vegas early last summer. That doesn't change the fact that the "unsustainable" overall market trend has been down over the last year.

You will never know where the exact rock bottom is. I guarantee you nobody in this world know where it is. Not even Bill Gates or Warren Buffet know that. We can only try to predict the bottom as close as possible. If you don't understand this point, you cannot be an effective investor. Those who invest only when commentators are upbeat end up paying a heavy price for meaningless reassurance. US companies are still laying off workers; technically we are still in recession, but it doesn't change the fact that many people regret about not buying stocks last year.

I don't dispute that the overall market trend has been down over the last year, but this is OVERALL only. If the overall market trend is positive, you have already missed the boat. You cannot get the best deals anymore.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by mresort

You will never know where the exact rock bottom is. I guarantee you nobody in this world know where it is. Not even Bill Gates or Warren Buffet know that. We can only try to predict the bottom as close as possible. If you don't understand this point, you cannot be an effective investor. Those who invest only when commentators are upbeat end up paying a heavy price for meaningless reassurance. US companies are still laying off workers; technically we are still in recession, but it doesn't change the fact that many people regret about not buying stocks last year.

No, technically we are not in a recession. Q4 GDP growth was almost 6%. And who is talking about buying stocks in this conversation other than you?

I don't dispute that the overall market trend has been down over the last year, but this is OVERALL only. If the overall market trend is positive, you have already missed the boat. You cannot get the best deals anymore.

I haven't seen anyone advocate waiting until the overall trend goes positive. I wouldn't have bought last summer if I thought prices in my segment had much more to lose. However, not everyone is looking to buy in that segment.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

It's a little difficult to claim you were talking about volume when the entire conversation is posted, isn't it? Geos said prices going up would be "at some distant point." You went on with your usual mantra as to why he was wrong. 11 months later, who was right? What has the median housing price trend done in the year since you told geos it was unsustainable?

You've called the bottom many times. Particularly, in the LVRJ forum you called the bottom years ago. Sorry Olecapt. Your batting average is laughable. The truth hurts sometimes.

You simply don't follow. The volume comment was in 2008. It was absolutely accurate. The 2009 comment was that the price trend was not sustainable and change would occur in pretty quickly - specifically in around 90 days. It did and I called it a likely bottom at that time.

Sorry Tony you just don't follow this stuff.