[Merrily Gather]

Originally Posted by BBMW

I tend to agree that at some point the feds will give up on it. But until that happens, Sessions could shut down legal sales with one phone call.

It's not happening. Congress recently voted to give him ZERO funding for a federal cannabis crackdown right after his big ignorant speech about how it's as as bad as heroin. When there's an opioid epidemic raging in this country.

Heroin (specifically black tar heroin from Mexico) is an opioid replacing synthetic or prescription opioids since it's cheaper to get, and you don't need a prescription, and this group of Mexican drug dealers deliver it to addicts like pizza, and sell it competitively without violence, and with discounts undercutting the competition to keep their clients supplied and addicted, and to create new clients. It's highly addictive and has killed more people than traffic accidents in this country and there hasn't been one death contributed to marijuana.

So essentially both sides of Congress sent a clear message they're not having it with the Administrations proposed Pot crackdown as their number one agenda issue when they have bigger fish to fry. Mostly it was about infringing on States rights and wanting to continue to pursue this course of letting the people vote and decide for themselves. They have more information on it than they had in prior years and it's viewed as less harmful than alcohol.

The budding medical and recreational industry let out a huge sigh of relief for the next four years. Hypothetically that could all change again in the midterm elections with the changing of the guard but I don't think so.

[Merrily Gather]

Originally Posted by SportyandMisty

You'll need to pass a drug test.

Ironically in Washington and Oregon they recently tried to pass a bill where if you're in the industry you don't need to pass a drug test for Pot. The bill didn't pass this time so people in the industry still need to pass a drug test if the employer requires it. I think it was due to concerns about opening doors for it not being required for all other industries. They're not there yet.

[Merrily Gather]

Originally Posted by yellowsnow

Now that was funny! I have been reading about attempts to come up with a DUI equivalent for pot but they are having a hard time because it stays in your system way after the high is gone. The test they are trying out landed a woman in jail in Kansas City because she was a cancer patient prescribed synthetic THC by her doctor. Interesting times ahead.

A few months ago they said pot on June 1st and now it's July.

In Nevada two of my friend's spouses just went to State to present their medical research on correctly testing and identifying it in people's systems. As they discovered the current system Nevada has for testing for it is flawed. They're getting there with the new research.

[Merrily Gather]

Originally Posted by Baked

With marijuana now being legal recreationally in Nevada, it's fair to say that there will be jobs to be had.

Is anybody here trying to get into the industry? I've heard master growers can make well over 6-figures. I know it's probably a resume killer, but when you're making that kind of money....who cares.

Try googling jobs and the magazines about it for jobs in it. You may have better luck there sourcing leads and ideas on jobs. As it stands now it's going to be available recreationally in Nevada July 1st but it's a tentative date.

[robojester]

JOIN SOME LOCAL MEETUP GROUPS

Damn caps loc

[SportyandMisty]

Originally Posted by Baked

This is predicted to be a $20 billion industry by 2020. I can't be the only one who sees the potential there.

The issue isn't the size of the industry. The issue is the size of the gross margin. If a $20 billion industry has $19.5 billion in costs, that's not a very good industry in which to invest. Over time, we can expect the barriers to entry to be about like, say, the barriers to entry for almonds or peaches or grapes.

There is a reason our ancestors left agriculture -- being a farmer is hard and not particularly profitable.

Distribution of agricultural products occurs on razor thin margins (very little profit).

Retail of agricultural products is also on very thin margins.

Commercial sod growers -- companies who grow ornamental grass for residential lawns, etc -- already have the massive capital infrastructure in place to grow pot. Many of them already have legal marijuana grow operations - licensed & regulated.

Here's another way to look at it. Let's take the PC industry. The top PC vendors are, in order: Lenovo, HP, Dell, Asus, Apple, and Acer. Only Apple has "special sauce." The others are commodity players.

Lenovo, the largest, had gross revenue of $44.9 BILLION. Their GROSS profit was $6.6 Billion. Their EBITDA was a mere $838 million (EBITDA is Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization). Lenovo didn't make a profit -- its Pre-tax loss was $277 million. Its cash flow was negative.

Lenovo is in a brutally competitive industry. Customers compare CPUs, memory, disk capacity and a few other things and will switch from one vendor to the next in response to very small price discrepancies.

It is a commodity business.

Pot will be a commodity business. Growers competing with one another will drive out any excess profits. Distributors will operate as all distributors do, making little money. Retailers won't be making much money, as consumers will just drive to the next retailer in response to a small price variance.

But aside from that, it looks like a great opportunity for you. What could possibly go wrong?

[BBMW]

^
Actually, I'm not quite buying that. Even in the illegal market, there's a lot of branding, based on different cannibis strains. I don't think it's quite the commodity market you think it is. This is especially true once it goes legal, and real brand development can happen.

The flip side of that is that it will be the big money players who'll be able to do that.

[robojester]

I would like to see them limit the size of grows and create a cottage industry.
A lot of Vets etc could grow then rather than big companies.

[Baked]

SportandMisty,

I don't think computers, or agriculture have anything in common with the marijuana industry. The latter will always be highly regulated. There will be limits on the number of growers and dispensaries keeping prices artificially high.

It's more like a pharmaceutical than a herb as far as the economics behind it.

Drug companies weren't hurting the last time I checked.

That aside, I believe the real money will be in ancillary products and services.

[clutchcargo777]

Also, peaches don't sell for $300 an oz. Even the best ones.