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Median purchase price in Nassau is same as it was 12 years ago. As long as a POS attached home in Queens goes for 650k don't expect prices in decent Nassau towns to go down. Don't be surprised if they increase either.
Agree with you on the type of houses in Queens. Problem with nassau vs queens is that the taxes are much higher, which is limiting the price appreciation vs NYC where property taxes are very low.
I'm still waiting to see this proof of "red hot seller's market" across all of Suffolk. I see quite a lot of houses in the mid-Suffolk area that are still under 2005/6 prices that have been on the market for 90+ days.
Mid Suffolk is a different story. Sorry, should've specified. I'm referring to Nassau County through Huntington/Farmingdale/Dix Hills/Melville. Once you get to Northport and east-ward, it begins to change. While I haven't looked out there, I have no trouble believing what you're saying about houses at 2006 prices on the market for 90 days. It's not a buyer's market til inventory is on the shelves for 6+ months, but you're right in that those conditions would indicate a more neutral market than what buyers are encountering in the more (NYC) commutable/accessible communities.
Honestly my projection won't be proved or disproved for 10 years. I don't think buyers today will be up 100K in 10 years as you are. I don't necessarily think they'll lose money if they stay put for 10 years, I just think they'll get **more** value in their equity in the long term (and def more bang for their buck in the short term), if they let the market cool a little. It can't stay this hot for long, that would just defy every law of physics and economics.
I think the limiting factor is rates. While house prices are back to where they were before the crash in Nassau, mortgage rates are also 2-3% lower, which has a big impact on the economics. In 10 years, with higher rates and higher property taxes, its going to be tough to afford a home that has also gone up in value especially since wage inflation is lagging.
I sold my house in Nassau in 3 days.
All the poor people are moving to Suffolk.
East End is bullet proof. The rest of Suffolk is much like Nassau, the sought after communities are going for a higher price than say the Shirley's and Mastics and such.
You need bucks to buy on the forks.
Nassau will always have higher prices because of the proximity to the dirty smelly city.
Throw a train station near by and you'll get a few extra dollars.
I don't know if I'd call it gentrification, but I'm seeing more and more average hard working middle class families buying into the formally snubbed areas of Suffolk. The skells and derelicts are being chased out. Prices will go through the roof across the board again, and of course crash and burn again. Nobody looks at a house as a home anymore. It's all about the investment and return even if they don't plan on moving anytime soon.
I think the limiting factor is rates. While house prices are back to where they were before the crash in Nassau, mortgage rates are also 2-3% lower, which has a big impact on the economics. In 10 years, with higher rates and higher property taxes, its going to be tough to afford a home that has also gone up in value especially since wage inflation is lagging.
Due to a home owner's ability to refinance and grieve their taxes, I don't think taxes and rates should be as big a motivating factor as some people advise.
Meh, 10 years goes by in the blink of an eye. We were in our first house 13 years almost to the day. Can't believe we've been in this one 7 years.
10 years, yes. That's the common timeframe usually given to see your equity rise. PP here mentioned a 20 year time frame to see a good return on a Nassau County investment made imminently (in this market). Which proves my point.
People mention interest rates affecting decisions. When my parents moved here in the 80s, the interest rates were as high as 12%. Yet now we're down at 3-4% and the population is still the same. If not for the limited land factor, it would certainly be much higher. People are going to buy here regardless of rates. Home prices went up, so did salaries.
Due to a home owner's ability to refinance and grieve their taxes, I don't think taxes and rates should be as big a motivating factor as some people advise.
False thinking, regardless of what you think, there is a big difference in the amount you owe when rates go up several percentage points. The rate sets your mortgage, refi'ing requires dollars all over again and there is no guarantee that if you grieve your taxes you will get a reduction.
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to see a good return on a Nassau County investment made imminently (in this market). Which proves my point.
