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So no denying we're in the throes of a vicious seller's market. Houses are going for way above value as a result. There is such low inventory and the supply just cannot keep up with the demand. This might not change in the imminent / foreseeable future. The NYC job market is booming and millenials are getting their act together, ready to buy. Even some Gen Xers are either upgrading or possibly buying for the first time after being delayed by the recession and housing crash almost 10 years ago. Meanwhile, baby boomers are aging in place. So in short, demand up, supply down.
I scoffed at the suggestion in my other thread that I buy in a blighted area. But then, honestly, it got me thinking. Maybe this overflow of home buyers who can't find inventory in the ideal areas are pushed into the less desirable areas...? After a while, won't that improve those towns?
The Massapequas of today could be the Levittowns of tomorrow
I'm not sure that it will lead to the gentrification of those areas. A lot of the areas that Long Islanders consider desirable or undesirable are related to the quality of the schools, something that is very important to younger buyers.
I'm not sure that it will lead to the gentrification of those areas. A lot of the areas that Long Islanders consider desirable or undesirable are related to the quality of the schools, something that is very important to younger buyers.
True, but I see a lot of posts just on CD alone asking about safety of areas, if there's shady people walking around, day laborers, etc..not just schools. So at least those issues should be improved by the influx of buyers who, in any other market, would be in Wantagh.
IMO, schools are the most important driving factor when deciding to pay these high costs. The majority of buyers "forcing" their way onto LI (and really that's what's happening because they're paying $400k+ for a small ranch/cape) won't consider any towns that would happen to benefit from any gentrification. People buying in an average town like Massapequa aren't going to make it any better than it already is, in terms of safety or academics.
IMO, schools are the most important driving factor when deciding to pay these high costs. The majority of buyers "forcing" their way onto LI (and really that's what's happening because they're paying $400k+ for a small ranch/cape) won't consider any towns that would happen to benefit from any gentrification. People buying in an average town like Massapequa aren't going to make it any better than it already is, in terms of safety or academics.
Haha I was actually considering Massapequa to be on the better side of towns, not one that would need gentrification. I was referring to Levittown, East Meadow, Valley Stream, maybe even Uniondale, Hempstead, Huntington Station, Lindenhurst, Amityville, Elmont.
Anyway, what abut an upper middle class household who plans on using private schools anyway and staying put for 50 years? What's to stop them from buying a heck of a nice piece of land in Levittown?
Gentrification, at least in the city, is driven by people who don’t have kids but want a decent commute to work. Think unmarried recent college grads, gays, artist types, etc. They will spearhead into an area and reduce crime by being not only less criminal themselves but also demanding more police protection as opposed to the ghetto code of “snitches get stitches”.
Once the area is perceived as safer, the real estate developers move in, buying up property and building shiny new buildings with high rents, which attracts more higher clientele, so on and so forth. This doesn’t necessarily impact the public schools however. Rents are sky high in parts of Brooklyn and yet many residents still send their kids to private schools because there is still a lot of lower income people in the neighborhood who make the public schools undesireable.
This may happen to certain towns that are perceived as worth the chance, particularly as prices in the city continue to climb. Look to towns like Mineola which has great access to the city and a walkable town center but hasn’t traditionally been a high priced neighborhood. Lot of development going on there. Hempstead is a much tougher sell. You’d need decades of work to gentrify that place.
Anyway, what abut an upper middle class household who plans on using private schools anyway and staying put for 50 years? What's to stop them from buying a heck of a nice piece of land in Levittown?
Taxes is what would stop them.
The reason the old Gold Coast estates dissappeared is partly due to taxes. Having a nice piece of land gets you taxed through the roof. The land you get is the standard plot size and then zoning limits what you can build.
Also, schools are important to the vast majority of people in the LI housing market. Even those sending their kids to private school realize the the district greatly affects resale ease and value.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Interlude
Gentrification, at least in the city, is driven by people who don’t have kids but want a decent commute to work.
Agreed. I would also suggest there is a slightly different "gentrification" process that takes place on LI.
Years ago, LI was primarily farmland. Those farms were eventually gentrified to surburban communities. In recent years, this has happened at more expensive levels. "Gated" communities are popping up in some odd places. Other communities that may have been considered average have seen housing developments that are priced more upscale than the original community.
Quote:
Look to towns like Mineola which has great access to the city and a walkable town center but hasn’t traditionally been a high priced neighborhood. Lot of development going on there. Hempstead is a much tougher sell. You’d need decades of work to gentrify that place.
Farmingdale is another example of sorts. They have built/are building some realtively high cost apratment buildings by the train. This project has helped revitalize the main street.
The problem is that LI is not like NYC. Go a few blocks from the town center and it is 100% residential. No shops, no subway station, etc. But that's the way surburbia is designed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by S.I.B.
eh, most areas on LI are pretty much the same as they were 10-20-30 years ago. If anything, I'd say more areas have gotten worse than the opposite.
Not sure I'd agree with that. So much of the development on LI has been higher end. It could be argued that this has lifted up many areas.
Things have drastically changed the further east you get. Look at the Rt 110 corrridor. It is nothing like it was 30 years ago.
Hmmm, Levittown has a medium household income of $99k. Hardly what you perceive it to be (ever been there)? No one would gentrify an area with no public transportation, anyway. It makes no sense. You don't gentrify middle class areas, you gentrify slums. If you think Levittown is a slum, you're just flat out daft. Levittown prospective buyers are young families, working immigrant families from Bklyn and Queens and young professionals who can't swing financing on a million dollar home in Dix Hills (and are smart enough to not want to).
And just for shizz and giggs...Levittown crime rate 62 out of 100 (higher is better). Massapequa, 58. Taken with a grain of salt from Neighborhood Scout but just pointing out you need to do some better homework.
Basically places like Hempstead and Copiague would be perfect for gentrification, but that is usually led by artists and hipsters and LI is as vanilla mainsteam as it gets. No art or music scene between NYC and the Hamptons, that's a fact. The NIMBY (not in my back yard) mafia on LI makes sure there are no walkable downtown areas (a few here and there...and they are very nice) but they are rigidly planned and maintained and believe me, no rock and roll or artist lofts happening anywhere. LI gentrification means the bodega becomes a Starbucks and the mom and pop hardware store becomes an MRI lab. No gentrification in housing or urban development anywhere on the horizon and a huge political lift to even entertain it. It's sad but it is what it is.
eh, most areas on LI are pretty much the same as they were 10-20-30 years ago. If anything, I'd say more areas have gotten worse than the opposite.
I think most of the nice middle\upper middle class neighborhoods have gotten even nicer while the crappy ones have gotten worse.
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