Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
To answer the coouple of posts about home prices falling in one breath:
Houses went you to 270% of their value vs. about 28% inflation from 1997-2009, thats unsustainable. Similar things happened during the 80's and we saw a big market crash then. Todays bubble was fueled by government involvement and subsequently the drop is being feathered by government involvement, all at the cost of the taxpayers.
The past year we've seen a rather significant ~20% drop off home prices (remember, home prices need about a total ~40% drop for it to return to inflationary pricing), but that 20% drop has been to the backdrop of stalled foreclosures, 8,000 homebuyer credits, remortgages, and the fed keeping interest artifically low so that ARMs don't adjust. An increase of just 2% in ARMs would relate to estimated thousands of home owners not being able to afford living anymore. We also have a significant shadow inventory on the market, homes that are in foreclosure that aren't coming on the market, but soon will need to be because of constant care/taxes make it an unwieldy item for a bank to hold onto much longer.
As you can see, lots of stuff are stacked to try and maintain home prices. Why? I don't know, especially with the idiots in charge in this current and the previous 2 administrations wanted more americans in a home. Cheaper homes are a lot more affordable the low interest rates and 270% inflated ones. So whats in it for the future. Well as soon as the fed increases rates we're going to see more of a lending glut as interest rises (less demand) and an increase in forclosures (more supply). The 8k credit is gone, so percieved affordability is dropping. Shadow inventory from banks are starting to increase on the market (more supply) further dropping homes. Taxes and assements on LI are still high, so we're also looking at that third demension of home buying on LI.
Basic jist of the story: we haven't even started to see the downfall of real estate.
I agree with Crooks, this does sound more like wishful thinking. Stagnation is what I think we'll see, not depreciation.
The good news is that the infrastructure is built....the bad news is that weve become a victim of our own success.
Time will tell, but unless you start seeing NYCs real estate collapse, LI will generally follow suit.
I wouldnt bet against LIs drawing power.
(NNJs, Westchester or Fairfields either)
Crooks
Come on dude - you're playing both sides. On one side you make posts about REVERSE White Flight and talk about how you want to end up living in NYC at some point. Unless I misread I believe your ultimate goal is moving INTO the city. Which frankly I find a bit deceiving with all the RP recommendations you make... You being at the "tail end" and keeping your RP home as a second place contradicts you "loving it" there. Your place in life appears to be very different from a young family just starting kids into schools there. You should caveat that to all the young families you recommend to move there.
Beyond that, yes LI has the infrastructure... but it's dated and much of it is crumbling. Whether it's the roads or the schools or strip mall #435464 - it's got many miles on it.
and lastly, I can see NYC saving Nassau from a further trip down the home value sewer... However, I'm not convinced about Suffolk. Especially with how bad and expensive the LIRR continues to be.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fanofavatar1
I agree with Crooks, this does sound more like wishful thinking. Stagnation is what I think we'll see, not depreciation.
What do they say - opinions are like $#@!s, we all have one? BTW, this is not directed at you at all. It was just the most recent "opinion" quote.
We all think we know what will happen. But the reality is that all this is completely unprecedented. We're all guessing - the "bottom" is completely an illusion spun by NAR and the banks. There's nothing that actually keeps values at a certain level.
In 2003 people said to buy a house because houses never go down.
I check MLSLI just about every day. Looked at a few houses already, but nothing worth the asking price.
Theres a difference between a 20% correction and holding your breath for a time machine.Again wishful thinking. Actually I know many folks who bought in 03 and are still in equity.(Notice I didnt say overbought).
LI will return with Wall Street.
Follow the money....greed always prevails.
LI will rise again after it shakes off some barnacles.
Its a rich mans Island or a smart mans buy.
Come on dude - you're playing both sides. On one side you make posts about REVERSE White Flight and talk about how you want to end up living in NYC at some point. Unless I misread I believe your ultimate goal is moving INTO the city. Which frankly I find a bit deceiving with all the RP recommendations you make... You being at the "tail end" and keeping your RP home as a second place contradicts you "loving it" there. Your place in life appears to be very different from a young family just starting kids into schools there. You should caveat that to all the young families you recommend to move there.
Beyond that, yes LI has the infrastructure... but it's dated and much of it is crumbling. Whether it's the roads or the schools or strip mall #435464 - it's got many miles on it.
and lastly, I can see NYC saving Nassau from a further trip down the home value sewer... However, I'm not convinced about Suffolk. Especially with how bad and expensive the LIRR continues to be.
What do they say - opinions are like $#@!s, we all have one? BTW, this is not directed at you at all. It was just the most recent "opinion" quote.
We all think we know what will happen. But the reality is that all this is completely unprecedented. We're all guessing - the "bottom" is completely an illusion spun by NAR and the banks. There's nothing that actually keeps values at a certain level.
I love NYC. In a perfect world id have a CoOp in Manhatan and a Waterfront in RP.
What I have posted is that the RE in NYC has gotten to be so onerous that folks of lesser means are coming to Western LI.
That is a very different and very new dynamic.
BTW just because the RE is expensive doesent make it nice.
All I said was your investment would be sound.At the end of the day were still 6th borough warts n all.
LI will return with Wall Street.
Follow the money....greed always prevails.
Wall Street?! So the housing market will turn up when the guys find new ways to fleece the system using smoke and mirrors to "create" wealth?
Remember that "greed" prevails by riding the backs of losers... Wealth there doesn't magically appear. For every winner there needs to be countless losers.
I really hope you're not depending on the finance sector to save LI.
To answer the coouple of posts about home prices falling in one breath:
Houses went you to 270% of their value vs. about 28% inflation from 1997-2009, thats unsustainable. Similar things happened during the 80's and we saw a big market crash then. Todays bubble was fueled by government involvement and subsequently the drop is being feathered by government involvement, all at the cost of the taxpayers.
The past year we've seen a rather significant ~20% drop off home prices (remember, home prices need about a total ~40% drop for it to return to inflationary pricing), but that 20% drop has been to the backdrop of stalled foreclosures, 8,000 homebuyer credits, remortgages, and the fed keeping interest artifically low so that ARMs don't adjust. An increase of just 2% in ARMs would relate to estimated thousands of home owners not being able to afford living anymore. We also have a significant shadow inventory on the market, homes that are in foreclosure that aren't coming on the market, but soon will need to be because of constant care/taxes make it an unwieldy item for a bank to hold onto much longer.
As you can see, lots of stuff are stacked to try and maintain home prices. Why? I don't know, especially with the idiots in charge in this current and the previous 2 administrations wanted more americans in a home. Cheaper homes are a lot more affordable the low interest rates and 270% inflated ones. So whats in it for the future. Well as soon as the fed increases rates we're going to see more of a lending glut as interest rises (less demand) and an increase in forclosures (more supply). The 8k credit is gone, so percieved affordability is dropping. Shadow inventory from banks are starting to increase on the market (more supply) further dropping homes. Taxes and assements on LI are still high, so we're also looking at that third demension of home buying on LI.
Basic jist of the story: we haven't even started to see the downfall of real estate.
Anyone remember formerly prolific poster djdairyp? He stopped posting a while back, but I think this guy is his long lost twin. Same failed ideas about where the market is going. Wrong a year ago and still wrong.
You sound like all the con artists that used that same logic and sentiment to the numerous people who are foreclosing or walking away from their mortgages now.
I hate that quote..."a house is worth what people are willing to spend" as people were willing (and encouraged) to spend money they did not have. If people were not willing or stupid enough to buy in the first place, home prices would have never become so unrealistic.
Cant help feeling that purchasing a home now would place me at the bottom of the Ponzi scheme.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
