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Old 07-03-2010, 01:09 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles, CA
787 posts, read 1,042,606 times
Reputation: 351

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On at LEAST this one measure, LIFE in the City of Los Angeles has vastly improved over the last 20 years: the sharp DROP in HOMICIDES.

These numbers are even MORE STRIKING when viewed in context with how the City's population has grown over that time.
1970: 2.8 million residents
1980: 2.9 million residents
1990: 3.4 million residents
2000: 3.7 million residents
2009: 3.8 million residents (estimate)

The following numbers are TOTAL ANNUAL HOMICIDES in the CITY of LOS ANGELES:

YEAR HOMICIDES
1970 491
1975 556
1980 1,028
1985 777
1986 831
1987 812
1988 736
1989 874
1990 983
1991 1,025
1992 1,092
1993 1,092
1994 850
1995 838
2000 542
2001 605
2002 646
2003 526
2004 515
2005 490
2006 478
2007 396
2008 382
2009 315

Sources: LAPD, City of LA, U.S. Census (pop. figures)
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Old 07-03-2010, 02:41 PM
 
1,880 posts, read 2,471,706 times
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Some great news for once! Considering the dour business climate & huge number of unemployed/under-employed I'm surprised we haven't seen a spike. I wonder if this trend has been mirrored in other metropolises throughout the US? or is LA a singular case? And if we're the exception, I wonder how much credit goes to former Chief Bratton? or can the huge drop be attributed to the waning influence of crack cocaine & drug cartels/gangs?
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Old 07-03-2010, 03:30 PM
 
Location: GLAMA
16,587 posts, read 20,285,471 times
Reputation: 16123
As usual, I'll be the one to mention the non-PC stuff that affected those numbers: demographic shift.
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Old 07-03-2010, 03:32 PM
 
Location: Pasadena
7,413 posts, read 3,408,280 times
Reputation: 1802
Quote:
Originally Posted by smokingGun View Post
Some great news for once! Considering the dour business climate & huge number of unemployed/under-employed I'm surprised we haven't seen a spike. I wonder if this trend has been mirrored in other metropolises throughout the US? or is LA a singular case? And if we're the exception, I wonder how much credit goes to former Chief Bratton? or can the huge drop be attributed to the waning influence of crack cocaine & drug cartels/gangs?
I am also surprised that the number of unemployed hasn't translated in higher crimes but these figures are for murders. Anyone know what is the overall crime rate including the usual burglaries, rapes, etc.? Many attributed the big improvement to Bratton, as you point out. Hated to see him leave public service but things haven't deteriorated since Bratton left the police force.

I don't know how LA stacks up against other cities and if crime is falling nation-wide but I have read on C-D that Los Angeles is considered relatively safe considering it's size.
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Old 07-03-2010, 04:47 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles, CA
787 posts, read 1,042,606 times
Reputation: 351
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fontucky View Post
As usual, I'll be the one to mention the non-PC stuff that affected those numbers: demographic shift.

No question that demographics (age, gender, etc) impacts crime. What demographic shift are you referring to?
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Old 07-03-2010, 04:51 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles, CA
787 posts, read 1,042,606 times
Reputation: 351
Quote:
Originally Posted by smokingGun View Post
Some great news for once! Considering the dour business climate & huge number of unemployed/under-employed I'm surprised we haven't seen a spike. I wonder if this trend has been mirrored in other metropolises throughout the US? or is LA a singular case? And if we're the exception, I wonder how much credit goes to former Chief Bratton? or can the huge drop be attributed to the waning influence of crack cocaine & drug cartels/gangs?
This article is from late 2009 and it mentions other large U.S. Cities have seen the same positive trend (falling crime during the recession).

Los Angeles crime rates plunge despite weak economy - Los Angeles Times

The article also notes that for LA...the ending of the crack epidemic has clearly HELPED bring down violent crimes.
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Old 07-03-2010, 04:54 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles, CA
787 posts, read 1,042,606 times
Reputation: 351
Quote:
Originally Posted by californio sur View Post
I am also surprised that the number of unemployed hasn't translated in higher crimes but these figures are for murders. Anyone know what is the overall crime rate including the usual burglaries, rapes, etc.? Many attributed the big improvement to Bratton, as you point out. Hated to see him leave public service but things haven't deteriorated since Bratton left the police force.
.

The numbers for LA in 2009 showed a DECLINE in burglaries and property crimes. I posted an article (see my previous post) which quotes several police and criminoligists as to WHY they think that crimes (of all kinds) have FALLEN during tough economic times.

One somewhat funny explanation is they think since MORE PEOPLE are unemployed and are AT HOME....there are LESS opportunities for burglaries!
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Old 07-03-2010, 04:55 PM
 
4,354 posts, read 3,622,091 times
Reputation: 3845
Quote:
Originally Posted by smokingGun View Post
Some great news for once! Considering the dour business climate & huge number of unemployed/under-employed I'm surprised we haven't seen a spike. I wonder if this trend has been mirrored in other metropolises throughout the US? or is LA a singular case? And if we're the exception, I wonder how much credit goes to former Chief Bratton? or can the huge drop be attributed to the waning influence of crack cocaine & drug cartels/gangs?
It seems to for California as a whole.

California Crime Rates 1960 - 2008
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Old 07-03-2010, 05:20 PM
 
118 posts, read 203,563 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCal35 View Post

One somewhat funny explanation is they think since MORE PEOPLE are unemployed and are AT HOME....there are LESS opportunities for burglaries!
I never thought of it that way.
It makes sense.

It also makes me wonder if break-in statistics drop in the summer as well, since kids would be out of school and hanging around their houses.
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Old 07-03-2010, 06:59 PM
 
Location: GLAMA
16,587 posts, read 20,285,471 times
Reputation: 16123
Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCal35 View Post
No question that demographics (age, gender, etc) impacts crime. What demographic shift are you referring to?
The shift of the South Central Black gang element from there to the IE and the high desert, and the corresponding leap in crime numbers where they resettled.
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