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Old 04-05-2020, 09:17 AM
 
Location: Sherman Oaks, CA
6,588 posts, read 17,552,477 times
Reputation: 9463

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I'm a bit of a data nerd, so I began keeping a spreadsheet of all new cases in L.A. County by city. I've been keeping track for two weeks. The info is updated daily and it can be found here:

https://www.latimes.com/projects/cal...-7030col2-main

I looked at two cities this morning - Long Beach (because it has the most number of cases) and Sherman Oaks (because that's where I live). Two weeks ago cases were doubling every two or three days. Now they're doubling every five or six days.

I'm mentioning this because we're now being told that L.A. County cases will increase by at least 1,000 per day from now on. Please keep in mind that flattening the curve doesn't mean there are no new cases; that's pretty much an impossible goal right now until everyone can get tested - but we need to keep up the good work! Social distancing is making a huge difference!
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Old 04-05-2020, 10:03 AM
 
Location: Sylmar, a part of Los Angeles
8,342 posts, read 6,433,296 times
Reputation: 17463
Don't tell the media, they are promoting this with all they got all day, every day and night. TV news is nothing but. They want to keep this going for as long as possible hopefully till next November.
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Old 04-05-2020, 10:07 AM
 
7,241 posts, read 4,552,074 times
Reputation: 11934
It is a no lose situation for the media. Scream that the world is ending to get people to watch (or do what they want) and when the cases / deaths don't materialize they say that the stay at home order worked. Brilliant.
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Old 04-05-2020, 12:17 PM
 
Location: all over the place (figuratively)
6,616 posts, read 4,884,211 times
Reputation: 3601
Of course it works.

That doesn't mean it will slow the spread enough. I have inside info that many tentative diagnoses are being given, for cases that are mild-to-moderate and aren't being officially verified with testing. (Hence, the number of rich/famous people who do have special access to testing and announce it without much sickness.) Unless almost everyone lives like a hermit for months, a big chunk of the population eventually will get the highly contagious disease. The only slice of good news is that according to the female health expert who joins the mayor on those briefings, viral load is linked to severity of illness, so that if people hardly interact, not many will get coronavirus that requires more than self-treatment.

Last edited by goodheathen; 04-05-2020 at 12:38 PM..
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Old 04-05-2020, 07:03 PM
 
Location: Corona del Mar, CA - Coronado, CA
4,477 posts, read 3,302,333 times
Reputation: 5609
Quote:
Originally Posted by SandyCo View Post
I'm a bit of a data nerd, so I began keeping a spreadsheet....
If you are a data nerd, then surely you know GIGO. Garbage In, Garbage Out. I think the data we are getting is horribly inaccurate and not timely, especially with the backlog of tests CA had and with the lack of widespread testing.

I have a friend who is pretty sure he is positive for COVID 19 (his wife is an ER doc), but he hasn't been tested and is on the upswing of getting better after several brutal days. I don't think he is alone in being not counted.
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Old 04-05-2020, 07:07 PM
 
23,177 posts, read 12,223,977 times
Reputation: 29354
Quote:
Originally Posted by SandyCo View Post
I'm a bit of a data nerd, so I began keeping a spreadsheet of all new cases in L.A. County by city. I've been keeping track for two weeks. The info is updated daily and it can be found here:

https://www.latimes.com/projects/cal...-7030col2-main

I looked at two cities this morning - Long Beach (because it has the most number of cases) and Sherman Oaks (because that's where I live). Two weeks ago cases were doubling every two or three days. Now they're doubling every five or six days.

I'm mentioning this because we're now being told that L.A. County cases will increase by at least 1,000 per day from now on. Please keep in mind that flattening the curve doesn't mean there are no new cases; that's pretty much an impossible goal right now until everyone can get tested - but we need to keep up the good work! Social distancing is making a huge difference!

It could also mean they are hitting the peak of their testing capacity.
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Old 04-05-2020, 07:30 PM
 
4,025 posts, read 1,878,692 times
Reputation: 8647
"It could also mean they are hitting the peak of their testing capacity."

Exactly. Watch for that all over the place - particularly when it comes to counting The Dead.
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Old 04-05-2020, 08:19 PM
 
Location: Sherman Oaks, CA
6,588 posts, read 17,552,477 times
Reputation: 9463
I do understand the lack of testing for everyone who needs it, but I can only go off of the data that is currently available. In reality, we don't know exactly how many people are infected, of course. I still choose to be somewhat optimistic, though, especially because the streets are so empty these days.
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Old 04-05-2020, 08:25 PM
 
8,943 posts, read 11,786,454 times
Reputation: 10871
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arya Stark View Post
It is a no lose situation for the media. Scream that the world is ending to get people to watch (or do what they want) and when the cases / deaths don't materialize they say that the stay at home order worked. Brilliant.
Yeah. These people say millions of people would have died if the shut down didn't happen. How do they know? I want them to prove it. I say the virus has run its course and is slowing down. Has nothing to with the silly shut downs.
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Old 04-05-2020, 08:29 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
4,627 posts, read 3,396,306 times
Reputation: 6148
Quote:
Originally Posted by davidt1 View Post
Yeah. These people say millions of people would have died if the shut down didn't happen. How do they know? I want them to prove it. I say the virus has run its course and is slowing down. Has nothing to with the silly shut downs.
Right and the moon landing was faked too.
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