Will the Housing market in L.A start rising again? (Los Angeles: sale, apartments)

[readymade]

Just out of curiosity, I did a search on Realtor.com for a 3 bedroom single family over 1400 sq ft and under $375K in Compton.

98 results.

[Charles]

Originally Posted by jbunniii

How do you figure? It gets its listings straight from the MLS. Additionally, it lets you search by more parameters than the MLS (at least the one at themls.com), for example square footage, how long the house has been listed, how many price reductions, etc. It can also search sale records, so you can see what houses have actually been selling for, as opposed to the listings which only show how much the seller is hoping to get.

Plus, if you haven't noticed, you can download search results into Excel and you get a lot more attributes (columns) than what are shown on the web interface. (It even shows whether recent sales were short sales or not.) It shows recent sales including original list price, list price when the sale occurred, and the final sales price and date.

I don't see anything close to Redfin. It is the real estate data lover's dream.

[allenk893]

Originally Posted by readymade

I've been house hunting for the past few weeks/months with a high of $375K. My realtor has been sending me TONS of listings in Pasadena, North Hollywood, & Highland Park for less than that (single family over 1300 sq ft w/ 3 bedrooms). I currently have 49 houses to look at (that I need to pare down). Some nicer than others. Are you saying that they are ALL crack dens?

Doesn't compute.

Child I don't know!! My search was like 2 years ago when the economy first dipped and the housing prices went down like Titanic! I don't know what the housing market over there is like now! I was just speculating!

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

My crystal ball is saying that prices will decline now that the Feds have ended the $8,000 incentive. The State has one for $10,000 that is more of a state income tax incentive as you will not get a check from the state. What you will get is a 3 year right off on your state tax liability up to the $10,000 mark. I have been watching home prices in Oxnard for the past few years and have seen homes priced in the $260,000 range that were selling for $300,000 18 months ago. Funny thing is that no one is buying these homes. Sure many homes do get purchased but many more seem to linger on the market not moving.

My crystal ball is saying that untill end users start buying we will remain in a depressed housing market. Sure a lot of homes get purchased by investors that see a deal in undervalued homes. When end users see the same value then we will head out of this thing. When people stop asking if we are at the bottom yet then we will be heading out of this mess. I noticed some real estate wizzard said that one indicator was when rents start going up again we will be on our way out of this mess. I have noticed that rents our lower in Oxnard at least then in years past. That same guy mentioned that we had till 2011 to hit the bottom and then untill 2013 before any movement would occur within the market. I am thinking the same thing that we will see a bottom in 2011 and sit their for a while before things inprove. But that is just me in my limited knowledge and use of this crystal ball. Maybe your crystal ball works better.

[jbunniii]

Originally Posted by Charles

Plus, if you haven't noticed, you can download search results into Excel and you get a lot more attributes (columns) than what are shown on the web interface. (It even shows whether recent sales were short sales or not.) It shows recent sales including original list price, list price when the sale occurred, and the final sales price and date.

I don't see anything close to Redfin. It is the real estate data lover's dream.

Nice. I was vaguely aware that there was a spreadsheet interface but did not know that it contained additional data. I'll take it for a test drive this evening.

My only complaint about Redfin is that I wish it covered more cities. I dislike the alternatives that I've tried that have wider coverage (Zillow, Trulia). Fortunately that situation is slowly improving - I was happy to see Portland added recently.

[jbunniii]

Originally Posted by SOON2BNSURPRISE

When end users see the same value then we will head out of this thing.

I cannot speak for other end users, but the value I am looking for is for the cost of owning to be in the same ballpark as the cost of renting. I am suspicious that prices can't stay too out of line versus rents indefinitely. Otherwise no one would be able to make a profit as a landlord.

I recall running the numbers in the mid to late 1990s for LA and at that time the costs were similar. (I didn't have a 20% downpayment, though, and also wanted to maintain the flexibility of renting, so I didn't buy.)

Nowadays, even after the price declines, it's still almost twice as expensive to own as to rent, assuming 30-year fixed mortgage, 20% down, etc.

Seems to me that until renting and owning are comparably priced again, the market is just not going to be "normal." Either rents have to go up or house prices have to come down. I don't see a lot of upward pressure on rents, so my money is on the latter.

[Mr. Fantastic]

Originally Posted by readymade

Just out of curiosity, I did a search on Realtor.com for a 3 bedroom single family over 1400 sq ft and under $375K in Compton.

98 results.

Did that include a free bullet proof vest with each offer submitted with a preapproaval letter?

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

I was reading an article that had to do with the relative cost to rent or buy a similar home. The author noted that a good comparison happens when you take the sale price of the home and devide that by 20. If the end result is the same or close to the yearly cost of renting a home then prices are about even. The lower the number the cheaper it is to buy, the higher the number the cheaper it is to rent.

[drshang]

If you are looking for a house in a "nice" part of LA county west of the 605, my advice is to come back in 5 years. I think you'll be very happy with your decision. Could be less could be more - it's always hard to say when the government is interfering with free markets. But it's nowhere close to a bottom nor does it make any economic sense to buy a house in just about every nice part of LA/vicinity. There may be one/two exceptions but generally speaking...stay away.

If you are after a house in the inland empire, there are many good deals and many of those areas are at/near bottom. The barrios of LA, depends, but any of them moderately close to "transitional" have a ways to fall, if you ask me.

[JohnG72]

Yeah, a co-worker recently bought a home in a craptacular part of Van Nuys for around $350K. Not only did he saddle himself with a mortgage that would rent the same home in Sherman Oaks(very nice nearby area) for the same price or in Valley Village for a couple hundred less(another nearby nicer area), but I think its very likely prices in an area like that will drop quite a bit more. Furthermore, he leaves himself no outs as it would probably rent out in the $1400-1500 a month range, leaving him quite a bit in the hole.