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If your brother in law is in Montgomery County as a para he was was getting well over minimum to begin with. The 2015 numbers were the most recent numbers I could access but beginning rate then ranged from $18 to $21 an hour.
My former employer, the large majority minority one to Montgomery's south preferred to label those paras as substitutes since it was cheaper.
To answer your question, I know literally dozens of people (many of which I indirectly employ through vendor contracts) who have been affected by MoCo's minimum wage increases that have arrived in advance of the state's. Considering my building's cleaning lady now shows up in a car nicer than my own, I'm guessing she doesn't dislike the annual pay increases. My brother-in-law has been able to quit his weekend job at a miniature golf course because his M-F min wage job as a special education assistant now pays $3 more an hour than when he was hired.
I heard the same nonsense online back before the increases took effect about "oh no, low wage workers will be fired because they aren't worth paying more." Guess what, the unemployment rate has continued to drop across the county year after year even as the minimum wage increases occur every July 1. The working class isn't as valueless as you seem to think. If this conversation was about maintaining v. changing the status quo re: wages and employment in west Baltimore instead of western MD I think you'd be able to see the facts much clearer.
Ok, now we can get somewhere. In your county raising the minimum wage may very well be a net positive. I don't know, I don' t live there, I don't presume to tell people in your county how much to pay their cleaning ladies, or their mini-golf staff.
Are you willing to accept that maybe, just maybe, I know more about the economy of my home county than you do? Are you willing to admit that maybe, just maybe, an area with a much lower COL, isolation from other job markets, and an unskilled workforce benefits from job that pay less than $15 an hour? I tried my best to show you have income scales with COL, but you won't respond to the data. It shows that being "valued" doesn't equate to one arbitrary hourly salary rate.
You need to read up on what the unemployment rate really means. People not looking for jobs and not actively on unemployment benefits are not counted. Look up "work force participation rate" to get a sense for what is really happening in communities like mine. People have given up looking for work. That isn't success or progress. That is what will happen here. You won't see a big jump in unemployment as the unskilled jobs leave for neighboring states, at least not for long, the jobs will be gone, and more people will out of workforce.
Lastly, after 10 years on this site, I tend to stick with what I know. I don't know West Baltimore, I won't comment on wages or employment there. I have no facts to offer, and my overall feeling is one of compassion for the working poor. People who do the best they can and still fall short should be supported. I think we can agree on that much.
If your brother in law is in Montgomery County as a para he was was getting well over minimum to begin with. The 2015 numbers were the most recent numbers I could access but beginning rate then ranged from $18 to $21 an hour.
My former employer, the large majority minority one to Montgomery's south preferred to label those paras as substitutes since it was cheaper.
He's not in MCPS, if that's what you're thinking. We've been trying to get him to apply because it'd be better benefits and pay, but he likes the person he works with. Or he's too intimated by the prospect of change, if you ask my wife.
Ok, now we can get somewhere. In your county raising the minimum wage may very well be a net positive. I don't know, I don' t live there, I don't presume to tell people in your county how much to pay their cleaning ladies, or their mini-golf staff.
Are you willing to accept that maybe, just maybe, I know more about the economy of my home county than you do? Are you willing to admit that maybe, just maybe, an area with a much lower COL, isolation from other job markets, and an unskilled workforce benefits from job that pay less than $15 an hour? I tried my best to show you have income scales with COL, but you won't respond to the data. It shows that being "valued" doesn't equate to one arbitrary hourly salary rate.
You need to read up on what the unemployment rate really means. People not looking for jobs and not actively on unemployment benefits are not counted. Look up "work force participation rate" to get a sense for what is really happening in communities like mine. People have given up looking for work. That isn't success or progress. That is what will happen here. You won't see a big jump in unemployment as the unskilled jobs leave for neighboring states, at least not for long, the jobs will be gone, and more people will out of workforce.
Lastly, after 10 years on this site, I tend to stick with what I know. I don't know West Baltimore, I won't comment on wages or employment there. I have no facts to offer, and my overall feeling is one of compassion for the working poor. People who do the best they can and still fall short should be supported. I think we can agree on that much.
But maybe, just maybe, you should consider that the status quo hasn't worked and mimicking areas that have been more successful might not be such a bad idea. I assume we're not going to agree on anything except that I don't know jack about Cumberland. Hopefully in 20 years rising tides have lifted all boats and I can come back and say "boo-ya, told you so." Or if Allegany and Washington Cos. decline further, well, you were right. $10/hour (or going back a decade to $7.25/hour - or 5 decades to $1/hour) and perpetual pop decline were as good as it could get.
...and perpetual population decline were as good as it could get.
Close to. Population decline to the point where there is some functional alignment
between the available work hours and the number who need work hours...
and of course where the value of those hours is enough to pay the bills.
That last one is the tricky part.
But maybe, just maybe, you should consider that the status quo hasn't worked and mimicking areas that have been more successful might not be such a bad idea. I assume we're not going to agree on anything except that I don't know jack about Cumberland. Hopefully in 20 years rising tides have lifted all boats and I can come back and say "boo-ya, told you so." Or if Allegany and Washington Cos. decline further, well, you were right. $10/hour (or going back a decade to $7.25/hour - or 5 decades to $1/hour) and perpetual pop decline were as good as it could get.
Lol, tying our future to Washington County, which very much is a part of the D.C. metro region with population growth, lots of new build housing, growing commuter cultural, appreciating land values, etc. shows how little you know about the state west of Frederick, but at least you acknowledge it.
What I know is that turning the working poor into the non-working poor is a big step backward. Explain to me how I am in the wrong about this, or how this law would allow us to "mimic" more successful communities, because I am really confused about what you expect to see happen here after this law goes into effect.
Lol, tying our future to Washington County, which very much is a part of the D.C. metro region with population growth, lots of new build housing, growing commuter cultural, appreciating land values, etc. shows how little you know about the state west of Frederick, but at least you acknowledge it.
What I know is that turning the working poor into the non-working poor is a big step backward. Explain to me how I am in the wrong about this, or how this law would allow us to "mimic" more successful communities, because I am really confused about what you expect to see happen here after this law goes into effect.
I should have said Garrett and Allegany? Washington Co. isn't considered western MD? Oh well. That'd be a really crappy commute towards DC.
I expect 95% of minimum wage/min wage-adjacent jobs will see the phased-in $5/hour raise and for 5% of those jobs to be eliminated altogether. Walmart and Rite Aid will still need shelves stocked, but maybe an independent gas station will combine its cashier and stocker positions into one, for example. I expect some amount of population decline to continue in economically depressed areas - both by those who want to earn substantially more money/don't return after college (nothing new there) and by those who are unable to secure one of the now somewhat rarer low wage positions without moving to an area with better job prospects. I expect remaining households to see a substantial difference in take home pay. Some of that increased pay will be negated by a corresponding decline in government benefits received. Overall, a higher percentage of remaining households will be financially stable which is the first step towards all sorts of prospects, whether going back to school, acting on a business idea, or simply enjoying minor changes in quality of life, e.g. going out to eat more often or taking on home improvement projects (stuff that's mundane, but perpetuates a virtuous circle of a community's economic vitality).
I should have said Garrett and Allegany? Washington Co. isn't considered western MD? Oh well. That'd be a really crappy commute towards DC.
I expect 95% of minimum wage/min wage-adjacent jobs will see the phased-in $5/hour raise and for 5% of jobs to be eliminated altogether. Walmart and Rite Aid will still need shelves stocked, but maybe an independent gas station will combine its cashier and stocker positions into one, for example. I expect some amount of population decline to continue in economically depressed areas - both by those who want to earn substantially more money/don't return after college (nothing new there) and by those who are unable to secure one of the now somewhat rarer low wage positions without moving to an area with better job prospects. I expect remaining households to see a substantial difference in take home pay. Some of that increased pay will be negated by a corresponding decline in government benefits received. Overall, a higher percentage of remaining households will be financially stable which is the first step towards all sorts of prospects, whether going back to school, acting on a new business idea, or simply enjoying minor changes in quality of life, e.g. going out to eat more often or taking on home improvement projects (stuff that's mundane, but perpetuates a virtuous circle of a community's economic vitality).
Very sanguine about combining cashier and stocker.
Look around and see how many jobs in your area are those types. Maryland has the reputation of being a high tech work environment, rightly to an extent, but there are still tens (hundreds?) of thousands of those "other" jobs.
Combine the cashier and stocker and you've eliminated one from the head count. Do that each shift and you've eliminated three, maybe four depending on shift set up, jobs. Those folks are now unemployed. The other employers they could work for have done what the place they were laid off from did, so available jobs are fewer
Calvert where I live sees about 2/3 (65%+/-) of its work force leave every morning to other Counties for work. The vast majority of those who remain work at those "other" jobs. Clerks, cashiers, stockers, restaurant staff, etc.
When I worked in industry every time we got a raise,every single time, it was accompanied by a lay off. Most of those laid off would usually be eventually called back but there were almost always some who weren't. And with that raise one other thing always happened, production was sped up, the machines went faster.
For teaching class sizes would always go up when we got a raise.
I should have said Garrett and Allegany? Washington Co. isn't considered western MD? Oh well. That'd be a really crappy commute towards DC.
I expect 95% of minimum wage/min wage-adjacent jobs will see the phased-in $5/hour raise and for 5% of those jobs to be eliminated altogether. Walmart and Rite Aid will still need shelves stocked, but maybe an independent gas station will combine its cashier and stocker positions into one, for example. I expect some amount of population decline to continue in economically depressed areas - both by those who want to earn substantially more money/don't return after college (nothing new there) and by those who are unable to secure one of the now somewhat rarer low wage positions without moving to an area with better job prospects. I expect remaining households to see a substantial difference in take home pay. Some of that increased pay will be negated by a corresponding decline in government benefits received. Overall, a higher percentage of remaining households will be financially stable which is the first step towards all sorts of prospects, whether going back to school, acting on a business idea, or simply enjoying minor changes in quality of life, e.g. going out to eat more often or taking on home improvement projects (stuff that's mundane, but perpetuates a virtuous circle of a community's economic vitality).
Washington County has a very different economic reality, they are a growing community in population, land values, etc. etc. I know it doesn't make a load of difference to most downstate folks, but one of our problems in "real Western Maryland" is you guys spending an afternoon in Frederick, or Washington Counties and going home saying "Geez, the economy isn't so bad out there, I saw plenty of new sub-divisions, distribution centers, office parks, etc."
Thanks for the answer. If we manage a 95/5 split, that vision may become reality. I don't want to presume, but do you go to Walmart? They, and Martins, our other big grocery/retailer, are going hardcore into automation with self-check-out. Martin's announced they will be introducing a robot who will roll around the store who will replace the employees who answer, "Where are the olives?" type questions. I can't see how raising the minimum wage does anything but accelerate this process. We also lost several retail stores, like Bon Ton last year too.
I've already mentioned the call centers, I think the odds that they stay here are low. Their business model is to look for cheap vacant commercial space, residents with a Midlands dialect, and places where low skilled jobs, and the accompanying hourly rates, are in demand. There are lots of places like that very close to Western Maryland..........the WV and PA places you proclaimed were better fits for this type of "tick-like" business. You weren't wrong. With minimum wage at $15 an hour, Maryland probably won't be a state they choose moving forward. The bigger question is the speed at which they run for the exits.
So, that's my take. I guess we wait and see. For what is worth, I really hope you are right, and I am very wrong.
Last edited by westsideboy; 03-31-2019 at 05:03 PM..
Very sanguine about combining cashier and stocker.
Look around and see how many jobs in your area are those types. Maryland has the reputation of being a high tech work environment, rightly to an extent, but there are still tens (hundreds?) of thousands of those "other" jobs.
Combine the cashier and stocker and you've eliminated one from the head count. Do that each shift and you've eliminated three, maybe four depending on shift set up, jobs. Those folks are now unemployed. The other employers they could work for have done what the place they were laid off from did, so available jobs are fewer
Calvert where I live sees about 2/3 (65%+/-) of its work force leave every morning to other Counties for work. The vast majority of those who remain work at those "other" jobs. Clerks, cashiers, stockers, restaurant staff, etc.
When I worked in industry every time we got a raise,every single time, it was accompanied by a lay off. Most of those laid off would usually be eventually called back but there were almost always some who weren't. And with that raise one other thing always happened, production was sped up, the machines went faster.
For teaching class sizes would always go up when we got a raise.
I'll take it a step further and say in isolated job markets where these job losses in low skilled labor are across the board, unemployment turns into "not part of the work force" really quickly.
Again, this law has the likely consequence of turning a sizeable chunk of the working poor into non-working poor where I live, or at minimum accelerating that process in retail/service industries.
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