BRAC not happening??!! (Aberdeen: real estate, houses, transfer) - Maryland (MD) - City-Data Forum

kjbond · 03-21-2009, 12:10 PM

Has anyone else heard rumors that there is a chance that the BRAC move (Ft Monmouth NJ to APG MD) might not be happening?
Apparently the cost for the move has tripled since the original estimate a few years ago? They are supposedly also doing a study to see what effect the move would have on NJ and the outlook is bleak.
Anyone else heard anything?
Thanks!

BigDragon · 03-21-2009, 02:45 PM

Considering that the DOD's budget is facing an initial 10% cut followed by even deeper cuts in the next two years, I do not find that news hard to believe. The media, NAR, and other organizations severely overestimate the amount of people coming to the area as a result of the BRAC. Furthermore, they do not account for those who have already transferred. The most I've heard was that it was on-hold and moves are being delayed now.

TuborgP · 03-21-2009, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigDragon

Considering that the DOD's budget is facing an initial 10% cut followed by even deeper cuts in the next two years, I do not find that news hard to believe. The media, NAR, and other organizations severely overestimate the amount of people coming to the area as a result of the BRAC. Furthermore, they do not account for those who have already transferred. The most I've heard was that it was on-hold and moves are being delayed now.

Plus the people in Jersey who are willing to come can't sell their homes. There are lots of folks who want to sell their homes who are holding out listing waiting for what was the promised BRAC surge and a hopeful uptick in prices. Once they realize it probably isn't going to happen watch prices and the number of listings coming on the market.

PenguinSix · 03-22-2009, 06:20 AM

While I'm sure it is being studied, I also think it would take a massive effort to undo a BRAC decision. It's not a can of worms that is easily closed once you start changing one decision here or there. Just because no one has physically moved yet doesn't mean the process isn't underway. Millions in transportation fixes and other changes are already budgeted and underway, and to change something after it's already started often means lawsuits and chaos.

I also think economic impact on an area (i.e. how it hurts NJ) is not the primary concern in a BRAC decision. While it is considered, that alone is not enough to change it (last I checked).

BigDragon · 03-22-2009, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PenguinSix

Just because no one has physically moved yet doesn't mean the process isn't underway.

That's a common misconception I've heard from real estate agents in particular. They don't think anyone has moved yet. However, a lot of people have already moved. The whole process is over half way finished. A lot of people are now opting to commute if they can since they either can't sell their houses or won't pay the high price of living in Maryland close to work. Some of the contractors expanding bases to make way for the BRAC are having major financial issues forcing some projects to be put on hold on top of a lot of people who can't seem to sell their homes and make the move.

onevthoki · 03-23-2009, 09:30 AM

BigDragon -

What have you heard about the Ordnance folks heading down to Ft. Lee with the BRAC movement?

BigDragon · 03-23-2009, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by onevthoki

BigDragon -

What have you heard about the Ordnance folks heading down to Ft. Lee with the BRAC movement?

Sorry, I haven't heard anything about that. Nobody talks about it during lunch. The focus is normally on Aberdeen, Ft. Meade, and Andrews when the subject comes up.

CMPX2 · 03-24-2009, 05:40 AM

I bet the Harford Co Gov't folks will be crying if BRAC doesn't happen...That's a lot of lost money.

Merlander · 03-24-2009, 06:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PenguinSix

While I'm sure it is being studied, I also think it would take a massive effort to undo a BRAC decision.

As Penguin states, it would take a massive efffort to undo BRAC legislation. The BRAC process was created precisely for that reason - to make it nearly impossible to stop once agreed to and under implementation.

kjbond · 03-24-2009, 06:35 AM

Thanks so much for all your replies - I tend to be hearing the same thing...that BRAC is almost impossible to stop once it's started. I truly hope that nothing changes - I really want to move to MD! I am excited to get the heck out of NJ!!