Strategies for buying house in a seller's market.. (Boston, Cambridge: low crime, mortgage)

[robr2]

Originally Posted by Dm84

Seriously. When I saw she was going to UMass I couldn't believe they were looking North of Boston.

That was a new piece of information that was revealed on this page. Based on that, I'd go south as well. I used to drive to UM-B 30 years ago from Somerville and it was horrid.

Is Quincy or Braintree a possibility? Otherwise, Weymouth is an option. Southfield - the development at the old naval air station - has some interesting options but the drive to UM-B would not be fun IMHO.

[academica]

Originally Posted by robr2

That was a new piece of information that was revealed on this page. Based on that, I'd go south as well. I used to drive to UM-B 30 years ago from Somerville and it was horrid.

Is Quincy or Braintree a possibility? Otherwise, Weymouth is an option. Southfield - the development at the old naval air station - has some interesting options but the drive to UM-B would not be fun IMHO.

Of course they are possibilities. Although I am not sure about Quincy because of the elementary schools.. I guess being totally unfamiliar with the South, we just wanted to look at the familiar towns up north and west (is watertown/waltham considered West?). By the way we are currently renting in Somerville, and my wife is happy with the commute from 93 (it takes her max 45 min at rush hour to drive to UMB).

We actually briefly considered Braintree but it looked too suburban for some reason. At one point I thought Braintree was underrated actually, given the T goes there and great schools. Might consider again.

However, when I took driving directions from Google maps, any town in South (even including Quincy) didn't give us substantially shorter driving times in rush hour. 93 seems to be congested both south and north.. below is a list to compare:

Google mapps estimates for driving to UMass Boston on weekdays @ 7:30 AM: (I used town centers to get an idea, numbers are approximate)

first, from North: (all of them using I-93 except from Watertown- I-90)

from Melrose: 14 miles, 40-70 min (that really means typically 70 minutes at that hour)
from Arlington: 12 miles 30-60 min
from Watertown: 12 miles, 30-55 min
from West Medford / Tufts area: 11 miles, 26-50 min

now from South, the towns suggested so far:

from Quincy: 7 miles 22-45 min
from Braintree: 9.7 miles, 28-60 minutes.
from Milton: 7 miles 20-40 min
from Weymouth: 12 miles 35-65 min (suggested Southfield area: 80 min)
from Canton: 17 miles 40-80 min
from Natick: 29 miles 55-110 min (sorry Partial Observer, this is of the list for sure! )

If you noticed, with similar actual distance, driving at rush hour from a point in South is worse than coming from North. Take Braintree and Medford for example. Or compare Weymouth or Canton with Melrose. In both cases Northern towns are farther away, but estimated driving times to UMass Boston are shorter. I guess the traffic is worse from South.

Needless to say, in all of the southern towns my public transport to Park street will be worse (sometimes significantly worse) than coming from North, both in terms of options, and times. So to give up that flexibility her commute should be significantly better than North, not just a few minutes.

Ironically, it is my wife who does not want to go to South, because of the friends living in the northern towns listed above. She is OK with driving 5-10 minute more for that, all else being equal. But if she was saving 15-20 min one way, then of course it is no brainer, with a child to care for, we would pick one of the alternatives in south. In other words: we don't want to be irrationally sticking to the towns in North just because they are more familiar to us and friends live there, but I just need to be convinced that the math adds up.

BTW I tried the above estimates at 8:00 AM, results were similar. IMHO Google maps estimates are usually and typically accurate, give or take 5 minutes.

It seems like among those suggested Milton is the town that saves the most in commuting times and I just noticed I can take a bus to hop on the Red line @ Ashmont, but I am not sure how elementary schools are rated there. Braintree has better schools, but all the towns we're looking up North are better in commute and even Melrose is off only 10 minutes.

let me know if my comparisons and results make sense

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by academica

I have been looking last 2-3 months. I don't mind buying on Christmas day if that means I will be able to buy in a town I prefer. However, I am told that although less buyers will be in market in the Fall/Winter, less properties will be available too, so that makes the competition not any better.

I bought last Fall/Winter after searching all summer. I wouldn't say inventory was lower, but if it was, competition was just as fierce. Open houses were packed, offers due by Tue and we were overbidding $5-10K with 20% down and still losing out to other offers (higher). It just sucked.


House we bought was one that popped up on a Tue, and we got in ASAP for a viewing before the open house. Put the offer in the next day at asking price (with a letter), and got it.


After closing and moving in, we heard from a few neighbors that they thought the previous owner was crazy for not going through with the open house and getting bids over asking. But I guess our letter may have had an effect? who knows. Needless to say it worked out.




Our search was 3+ months long and over 50+ open houses. We pretty much wasted our entire summer at open houses on Sat/Sun.

[ecraigie]

I agree that you should take a closer look at Quincy. The four stops on the redline make public transportation to UMB and downtown very convenient. There is also the commuter rail from Quincy Center. You should be able to find a SFH meeting your criteria within a 15 minute walk to one of the stations, though desirable listings do go quick.

Elementary schools such as Wollaston, Bernazzani, Beachwood Knoll & Merrymount are well regarded, have active PTOs and generally rank >6. I don’t put a ton of stock into the Greatschools rankings though, as my observations tell me they vary quite a bit year-to-year. For instance, Central Middle went from an 8 to a 4 in the span of 12 months! A better long-term indicator IMO is that the city continues to invest in the schools (e.g. brand new buildings for Central Middle and Quincy High and is planning for a 12th elementary school).

I previously lived in Arlington and Somerville, and I can tell you that my commute to downtown is just as convenient, if not easier: about 40 minutes door-to-door (15 minutes walking, 25 minutes T).

[masshawk]

Originally Posted by academica

If you noticed, with similar actual distance, driving at rush hour from a point in South is worse than coming from North. Take Braintree and Medford for example. Or compare Weymouth or Canton with Melrose. In both cases Northern towns are farther away, but estimated driving times to UMass Boston are shorter. I guess the traffic is worse from South.

Ironically, it is my wife who does not want to go to South, because of the friends living in the northern towns listed above. She is OK with driving 5-10 minute more for that, all else being equal. But if she was saving 15-20 min one way, then of course it is no brainer, with a child to care for, we would pick one of the alternatives in south. In other words: we don't want to be irrationally sticking to the towns in North just because they are more familiar to us and friends live there, but I just need to be convinced that the math adds up.

Also consider that school is temporary, so if you were renting I'd say Quincy/Braintree for sure, but for buying I wouldn't necessarily base my decision on being close to UMass. Since you're willing to cut criterion #4, I'd say the Melrose/Stoneham/Wakefield area isn't out of the question. Being open to a condo/townhouse should keep Watertown open to you, but you'll have to be patient... and Waltham is another option. A lot of people look down on the schools, but particularly at the elementary level, there's been a lot of improvement. I think a couple of the elementary schools have gotten high Greatschools ratings recently, although there is an overcrowding issue (common in a lot of towns around here). You can easily get a very nice condo in your budget, get to Park St in under an hour on public transportation (takes me about 45 min if the 70 bus isn't F'd, though it often is; commuter rail would be faster), and it's safe.

Or, completely off your radar: Roslindale. It's safe, close to both downtown and UMass, walkable, and I think possibly still in your budget. The schools are a gamble since it's by lottery, but there are good elementary schools available.

About getting to Park St/Downtown Xing, never underestimate the benefits of only needing to take 1 mode of transportation rather than having to switch from subway to bus, commuter rail, etc. Especially during a bad winter, any mode switching can add a ton of time and unpredictability and you can chuck the Google estimates out the window.

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

Our search was 3+ months long and over 50+ open houses. We pretty much wasted our entire summer at open houses on Sat/Sun.

Ugh, I remember that from our search. Almost every weekend from fall 2012 - early 2013: So. Many. Open houses.

[Ninotchka P]

[quote=academica
from Arlington: 12 miles 30-60 min
[/QUOTE]

I commuted from Arlington to UMass Boston about 15 years ago. I'm not buying 30-60 minutes, it seems very optimistic to me.

Generally I just found my way to Davis Sq, either via a ride or by bus, and took the T. Commute would have been about an hour door to door.

When I left early morning, I did drive. Commute was 60 minutes, minimum. One fateful day with a particularly bad traffic jam it took me over 2-3 hours.

[MikePRU]

Originally Posted by academica

interesting, if other agents dislike/hate them that much, I may consider dropping Redfin for just that reason.. especially when it comes to minor differences in offers, I need all the leverage I can have..

It's not always the difference, but it can be. I always tell my clients: try to eliminate from your offer anything objectionable to the seller. You never know what will end up being the deciding factor. Especially true if it's a competitive situation.

Sometimes the thing that's objectionable with your offer is the agent presenting it and I'm not just saying that about Redfin agents although there is a lot of anti-Redfin sentiment amongst "traditional" agents. There are certainly other agents working for other companies that I would say to my client - I've worked with {insert bad agent's name here] before and this contract has less of a chance of closing than if we go with the offer from [insert name of good agent's name here]'s client.

Originally Posted by Dm84

Seriously. When I saw she was going to UMass I couldn't believe they were looking North of Boston.

I find that surprising as well. I'd move South of Boston if that was my commute.

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by MikePRU

I find that surprising as well. I'd move South of Boston if that was my commute.

I could see the reasoning behind the OP's choice though. Their friends live north of town, and school is temporary. I'd imagine after all the fun that is home-buying these days, they may not want to repeat the process in 4 years. (or whenever she finishes school)




But yeah, that commute is gonna stink

[J1mbo01]

I commuted from Burlington to UMass Boston for 4 years. While not ideal, it was not horrible, especially if you left on the earlier side. If I left at 7 am I was usually there by 8. Of course there were exceptions. Coming home was actually a quicker drive.

[Shizim]

"from West Medford / Tufts area: 11 miles, 26-50 min"

not a chance you are under 40 minutes even taking the HOV lane. it typically takes 30 minutes or so to get to the government center exit. this is around 7:15am or so, from the rt 16/Boston ave intersection.

and I cheat and take the HOV.... alone.

i drive this route a few times a week so i have experience.