Real Estate Market beginning a big Price Correction? Especially in the suburban over a $million bracket? (Boston: for sale, prices)

[timberline742]

Originally Posted by wolfgang239

Plenty, take it you've never been there. Along Route 20 (if you've been, you've driven it) you will find the most "average" looking homes. Looks like what you would see in Natick or much of Wayland. Average price however, obviously not.

Been through there a ton when I was going to Wayland (almost) weekly. I guess we have different definitions. Maybe average for Weston. But I don't consider Sudbury or Wayland to be full of average homes either.

[massnative71]

There used to be quite a few, although I haven't driven through there in a zillion years. They might have all been torn down.

[wolfgang239]

Originally Posted by timberline742

Been through there a ton when I was going to Wayland (almost) weekly. I guess we have different definitions. Maybe average for Weston. But I don't consider Sudbury or Wayland to be full of average homes either.

Did a quick 20 second street view query to jog your memory. Yes, they do exist and are by all definitions average.

One

Two

[timberline742]

Originally Posted by wolfgang239

Did a quick 20 second street view query to jog your memory. Yes, they do exist and are by all definitions average.

One

Two

Uh huh, one looks under construction in a way, and I doubt very much it is average inside, which is really what matters. The other is prob a tear down. Going up and down that street view shows me gigantic houses on very large lots.

[wolfgang239]

Originally Posted by timberline742

Uh huh, one looks under construction in a way, and I doubt very much it is average inside, which is really what matters. The other is prob a tear down. Going up and down that street view shows me gigantic houses on very large lots.

Gotcha, so if you give me a few more days I can dig up probably 100 or so more examples, but either way there are average houses in Weston. Any more goalposts to shift or were you just wrong?

[mwbms28]

Another factor is that towns like Lincoln and Dover are really for certain type of person.

We just moved to Dover, and we love the woods, the hiking trails, the tranquility, the animals, the space... Not everyone (or even most people) wants that, but these are small towns that fit a very specific set of desires.

We go into Boston now and again, but probably no more than once a month.

A lot of my friends are like the millennials described in the OPs post: prefer urban living, little use for car, in relationships but not married, love the walkability to all sorts of attractions, don't really want the financial burden of a house, even though they make good money. This is just one segment of the population, though.

[timberline742]

Originally Posted by wolfgang239

Gotcha, so if you give me a few more days I can dig up probably 100 or so more examples, but either way there are average houses in Weston. Any more goalposts to shift or were you just wrong?

I think you have a very watered down view of what average is and showing a picture from the outside doesn't show what a house is.


Things like this:


https://www.redfin.com/MA/Weston/689...3/home/8783410


Is NOT an average house. If you think it is, you're wrong and you show the super wealthy, conservative bent of this forum.


This is closer to an average house:


https://www.redfin.com/MA/Leominster.../home/16535402

[MikePRU]

Originally Posted by massnative71

I don't agree with that. Weston is still #1 for home values, as it has been forever. No public transit there.

https://www.trulia.com/home_prices/Massachusetts/

Lynn is the cheapest, and it has all sorts of public transit.

I know the two aren't exactly apples to apples, but I just don't see how that theory can be backed up.

As you point out, Lynn vs. Weston is just a ridiculous comparison. Obviously my statement had a "all other things being equal" that was unspoken and there is nothing equal about Lynn vs. Weston.

More importantly, you're 100% wrong about Weston not having public transportation. It's serviced by the commuter rail. It's also really close to the highway. So, it's a pretty good commuting town to live in.

Weston vs. Sudbury or Wayland would be more valid and the prices are definitely higher in Weston. This being said, public transportation or a lack there of is not the sole factor in determining location value of a home. Again, my statement was intended to have an assumed "all other things being equal" caveat to it.

Originally Posted by semiurbanite

Weston homes are enormous so they skew the numbers. They are also mostly luxury. If you compare apples to apples as far a square feet and luxury level, I think you get alot more for your money in Weston compared to other towns. Look at the price per square foot option on that map and things change a bit. If you took my house and moved it to Weston it would drop in value considerably.

Not all homes in Weston are mansions. One of the first listing presentations I went on when I was a new agent was at a fairly modest, multi-level style home in Weston off of 117. I think it was on Spring Street. I'm pretty sure the house is still there even though that was a number of years back.

I completely agree with you though that if you look at the size of the lot you get combined with the size of the house and the amenities the town offers that Weston is actually a much better value than most people realize. In other towns like Wellesley, you would have to pay a much higher premium to get the larger lot that's more of a given in Weston.

Originally Posted by jayrandom

I think it's safe to say that proximity to Boston/Cambridge as well as transit are now definitely desirable,

I think you could safely say that those things have been desirable for some time now.

Originally Posted by jayrandom

but they aren't the only things that make a place desirable. Sometimes these other factors can overwhelm the dual factors of transit and proximity. Weston has a sold PPSF of $435. Waltham, which is closer, far more walkable, and has much better transit options, was $349.

Absolutely! What get's talked about on C-D probably more than anything else? SCHOOLS! That's another big factor and certainly a big difference between Weston and Waltham. People also like walkability and there's also aesthetics and many more things to consider.

Originally Posted by jayrandom

It's worth noting that the same source has found that Waltham prices increased 11% last year, while Weston prices only 5%. I think that's also a case of affordable towns becoming more palatable as prices skyrocket. People are willing to pay a premium for a given town, but that premium is finite.

Any time we have a run up in values like this it pushes people to other places. Places get gentrified. People always like to think what's happening now has never happened before but we haven't reinvented the wheel here at all.

Originally Posted by jayrandom

(Slightly off topic: I also don't think that PPSF is a great way of comparing towns with wildly different minimum lot sizes. I'd guess a better model would be a linear offset model; there's a minimum price to buy anything and then a roughly linear trend with square footage. )

I hate PPSF. I like to say it's a great way to buy carpet but not houses. I don't know a single professional in the real estate industry who quotes PPSF except to play up to a non-professional.

BTW, I'd like to add that it's good seeing you here more frequently lately.

[wolfgang239]

Originally Posted by timberline742

Is NOT an average house. If you think it is, you're wrong and you show the super wealthy, conservative bent of this forum.


This is closer to an average house:


https://www.redfin.com/MA/Leominster.../home/16535402

Now I know little credibility you have with those off base character assumptions.

The last one looks like the average dump teardown for the towns listed in the thread topic. There are very few of those if any left in Weston Wellesley or Dover. The first looks very average for Lincoln, Sudbury, concord, etc. including the updates to the kitchen.

But why stay on topic when we can compare apples to spaceships?

[chicagoliz]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

I
It's worth noting that the same source has found that Waltham prices increased 11% last year, while Weston prices only 5%. I think that's also a case of affordable towns becoming more palatable as prices skyrocket. People are willing to pay a premium for a given town, but that premium is finite.

I think that Waltham will continue to appreciate, and do so at a faster rate than some surrounding towns. I'm not sure of the details about their schools and their plans for them, but if they can get them a tad more desirable, that will really increase the home value. The location is just superb, really -- it's sandwiched in between two other very desirable towns, it is not all that far from Boston or Cambridge, has lots of employers in its own right, and has some great restaurants in town, too. At some point, the whole tear down issue that we see in places like Newton and Needham will be present in Waltham. It may take a little while, but I would bet that it will happen.

Originally Posted by wolfgang239

Did a quick 20 second street view query to jog your memory. Yes, they do exist and are by all definitions average.

One

Two

And these homes are going for $1.2 million?