Need perspective: Buy now or wait? (Boston: how much, houses, buying)

[BostonMike7]

Personally, if I was in the market, I wouldn't buy right now. I'd wait and see how the spring market is to really get a sense of how the market is going. There's a few neighborhoods i'm familiar with, so i'm curious to see how they do come springtime.

From a global manufacturing perspective, things have slowed with regards to orders placed at my company. (our customers make electronics and other popular consumer goods) Things fell off around July of last year and are still down. Signs point to it have hitting a bottom and starting to turn the other way, but we haven't seen that strong uptick yet. Personally, I think the next 2-3 months will be telling however it could go one of two ways. Spring housing market is a slump and the bidding wars over asking begins to go away, or signs point to gradual recovery and it's business as usual and you lose out.

No crystal ball here. Good luck

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

I've worked with one gentleman for about 7 years here who was 23 when he started. He lived in Somerville, and was your stereotypical neck-bearded hipster drinking craft beer and leading a pretty interesting life doing those stereotypical millennial things. He's 30 now, lives in Chelmsford with his girlfriend and drives a F150 truck so they take their dogs to the park. I have more in common with him now then when he was 23 and I was 30. My point is everyone assumes millennials are set in their beliefs and don't change. I've often heard "millennials don't want cars" and that might be the case for a 20-something living in the Fenway, but check back when they are in their late 30's with a couple of kids and see if that holds true.

Older millenial as well. My wife and I spent the last 15 years of our lives in 'the city' - whether that be Boston, Lowell, Greenville, etc.

Most of our peers were urbanites as well, however, in the past three years the majority of our group has fled their lives in the city (e.g., Boston, Providence, Baltimore/DC, NYC) and settled into the 'burbs of central and eastern MA - ourselves included.

26 year old me was looking at condos in Longwood; 30 year old me bought a SFH on 3 acres in central MA. Plenty of similar moves in the past 32 months: Arlington>Harvard; Braintree>Northborough; Boston>Princeton; Boston>Holden; Cambridge>Shrewsbury; Somerville>Danvers; Baltimore>Littleton; Lowell>Andover; Lowell>Sterling; and so on.

For every 30-something moving to a metro, there seems to be ten fleeing.

[massnative71]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

26 year old me was looking at condos in Longwood; 30 year old me bought a SFH on 3 acres in central MA. Plenty of similar moves in the past 32 months: Arlington>Harvard; Braintree>Northborough; Boston>Princeton; Boston>Holden; Cambridge>Shrewsbury; Somerville>Danvers; Baltimore>Littleton; Lowell>Andover; Lowell>Sterling; and so on.

That looks a lot like my peer group as well, and some of course were from the suburbs and never left. I'm just a few years older; and out of all the people who lived in Southie, Dorchester, Brighton, Cambridge, Somerville, East Boston, Chelsea, Quincy, etc. 5, 10 or 15 years ago; I can barely think of any who still remain. For economic and other reasons, the younger crowd is delaying adulthood to an extent; but in the end they follow the same patterns as previous generations.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

Personally, if I was in the market, I wouldn't buy right now. I'd wait and see how the spring market is to really get a sense of how the market is going. There's a few neighborhoods i'm familiar with, so i'm curious to see how they do come springtime.

From a global manufacturing perspective, things have slowed with regards to orders placed at my company. (our customers make electronics and other popular consumer goods) Things fell off around July of last year and are still down. Signs point to it have hitting a bottom and starting to turn the other way, but we haven't seen that strong uptick yet. Personally, I think the next 2-3 months will be telling however it could go one of two ways. Spring housing market is a slump and the bidding wars over asking begins to go away, or signs point to gradual recovery and it's business as usual and you lose out.

No crystal ball here. Good luck

I tend to agree with this suggestion. While I don't think it's terribly unsafe to buy and hold right now, I also think prices will start to move horizontal and/or dip slightly over the next few years so there really is no rush if ones personal life is demanding it.

[timberline742]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

Older millenial as well. My wife and I spent the last 15 years of our lives in 'the city' - whether that be Boston, Lowell, Greenville, etc.

Most of our peers were urbanites as well, however, in the past three years the majority of our group has fled their lives in the city (e.g., Boston, Providence, Baltimore/DC, NYC) and settled into the 'burbs of central and eastern MA - ourselves included.

26 year old me was looking at condos in Longwood; 30 year old me bought a SFH on 3 acres in central MA. Plenty of similar moves in the past 32 months: Arlington>Harvard; Braintree>Northborough; Boston>Princeton; Boston>Holden; Cambridge>Shrewsbury; Somerville>Danvers; Baltimore>Littleton; Lowell>Andover; Lowell>Sterling; and so on.

For every 30-something moving to a metro, there seems to be ten fleeing.

I have one friend that moved out to Newton, and one to Waltham. The others, dozens of them really, all still in Boston/Cambridge/Chelsea/Somerville/Arlington. For those that stayed in the area (plenty moved to NYC, Bay Area, LA, PNW, DC too... some other places, Asheville, etc).


Plenty moved away and came back too, but all in the core. I don't know your age, but I'm in my 40s. So I guess I'm generation X or something? I dunno, but for the most part, the people I went to high school with, college with, or met in my 20s (and remained close to) kept fairly urban. Some exceptions of course.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by sarahmccoy

It’s a great time to be a buyer right now, why wait! I’m seeing buyers getting great bargains right now all over greater Boston/Middlesex County area. If you wait another 2 years, who knows what will happen with rates and property values. Plus you’re paying someone else’s mortgage. Most of my clients put less than 10% down, and do so happily. Don’t let the PMi scare you. Once you get 80% LTV your lender can remove it. Good luck!

I had to laugh at this blatant realtor propaganda post.


I'm old enough to remember Black Monday, the S&L meltdown, and totally dead Boston real estate market of the first part of the 1990s. Residential real estate doesn't always go up but realtors get their commission no matter how much of a bloodbath you take having to sell in a down market.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

Older millenial as well. My wife and I spent the last 15 years of our lives in 'the city' - whether that be Boston, Lowell, Greenville, etc.

Most of our peers were urbanites as well, however, in the past three years the majority of our group has fled their lives in the city (e.g., Boston, Providence, Baltimore/DC, NYC) and settled into the 'burbs of central and eastern MA - ourselves included.

26 year old me was looking at condos in Longwood; 30 year old me bought a SFH on 3 acres in central MA. Plenty of similar moves in the past 32 months: Arlington>Harvard; Braintree>Northborough; Boston>Princeton; Boston>Holden; Cambridge>Shrewsbury; Somerville>Danvers; Baltimore>Littleton; Lowell>Andover; Lowell>Sterling; and so on.

For every 30-something moving to a metro, there seems to be ten fleeing.

The difference is the ones fleeing tend to be married with children. With Millennials, more than half are married and 83% of those have children. The half that are still single or dual income/no kids are far more likely to stay urban or semi-urban.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

The cost of commercializing autonomous driving is a decade plus, at minimum. The components are brutally expensive and current cost reductions are showing less than favorable results. A cheap LIDAR/software package is somewhere in the $70k range with the better ones being $100K+. They're targeting a $10-15K package in the next 5-8 years, but even then you're talking $45K+ for an entry level vehicle.

I'll be surprised if we have mass autonomy in New England in the next 15 years ... the challenges are staggering in every regard - tech, cost, infrastructure, liability, etc.

Unlike most R&D efforts, autonomous driving has been very public giving the perception to the general public that the technology is there or close to it. Even the best examples are still more of a proof of concept.

22 years ago, internet for the unwashed masses was 56k dialup and "You've got mail!" Technology evolves quickly if there's enough investment in it. With the huge dollars in play, I think this technology is likely to be on the fast track. I'd expect to be able to buy an autonomous car 15 years from now and I'd expect to hail an Uber-like driverless car from my smartphone 15 years from now.

[chicagoliz]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

Older millenial as well. My wife and I spent the last 15 years of our lives in 'the city' - whether that be Boston, Lowell, Greenville, etc.

Most of our peers were urbanites as well, however, in the past three years the majority of our group has fled their lives in the city (e.g., Boston, Providence, Baltimore/DC, NYC) and settled into the 'burbs of central and eastern MA - ourselves included.

26 year old me was looking at condos in Longwood; 30 year old me bought a SFH on 3 acres in central MA. Plenty of similar moves in the past 32 months: Arlington>Harvard; Braintree>Northborough; Boston>Princeton; Boston>Holden; Cambridge>Shrewsbury; Somerville>Danvers; Baltimore>Littleton; Lowell>Andover; Lowell>Sterling; and so on.

For every 30-something moving to a metro, there seems to be ten fleeing.

Hmmm -- from what I hear, millennials want walkability, which is actually what I want. Articles I've read indicate that they want more urban locales, which is part of the reason why there are housing issues -- they want to stay in the city, old people want to move to the city, and people don't want to buy the houses in the suburbs.

Anecdotally, I'm in my late 40s, so not a Millennial. Thinking of the people I know who are my age, a few moved out to the far-out suburbs/exurbs (mostly for affordability) but the majority live in close in urban suburbs. Some live in the big cities themselves, even with kids. The people I know in the further out suburbs are split -- about half are content out there, and are ok with going into the city only occasionally. The other half would prefer to live closer into the city, but at this point, moving is too much of a hassle. They don't really want to spend the money it would cost to move and for a house closer in.

[Cabound1]

Originally Posted by johngolf

Have you ever heard a real estate agent say anything other than it is a great time to buy? Even when the prices are falling, they still say it is a great time to buy. Know why? Because they do not make any money if you do not buy.

No kidding right? Prices in coastal cities are coming down. No need to buy now. It was 6 years of falling prices last time around, and prices are even more inflated this time around.