Boston area population lost 2020-2021 (Worcester, Plymouth: home, to live in, costs)

[BostonBornMassMade]

Below is a list of components of change between 2020 and 2021 by metro area.

Immigration from other parts of the US to the Metro Area
Phoenix: 66,560
Dallas/Fort Worth: 56,309
Tampa: 42,089
Austin: 40,264
Riverside/San Bernardino: 39,215
Sarasota: 29,186
Fort Myers: 25,864
San Antonio: 25,660
Lakeland, FL: 24,939
Jacksonville: 24,815
Boise: 24,410
Charlotte: 23,970
Raleigh/Durham: 22,597
Atlanta: 19,358
Port St. Lucie, FL: 16,648
Knoxville: 16,218
Provo, UT: 13,648
Las Vegas: 13,359
Palm Bay, FL: 12,565
Salisbury, MD: 12,500
Nashville: 12,429
Houston: 12,426
Daytona Beach: 19,086
Ocala, FL: 11,131
Greenville, SC: 10,968
Oklahoma City: 10,224
Naples, FL: 10,016
Punta Gorda, FL: 9,406
Tucson: 8,101
Sacramento: 6,913
Indianapolis: 6,427
Orlando: 4,024
Providence: 2,247
Hartford: 832
Kansas City: 748

Cincinnati: -259
Pittsburgh: -3,993
Salt Lake City: -4,629
Cleveland: -6,089
Denver: -6,509 (Greely, Colorado Springs, Pueblo, and Fort Collins all registered high positive numbers)
St. Louis: -7,277
Portland, OR: -7,741
Milwaukee: -8,790
New Orleans: -9,824
Lake Charles, LA: -11,914 (Hurricane Laura)
Philadelphia: -14,463
Minneapolis/St. Paul: -15,462
Detroit: -18,451
San Diego: -22,867
Seattle/Tacoma: -31,489
Boston: -40,828
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: -55,305
Washington DC: -66,816
Chicago: -106,847
San Francisco/San Jose: -181,682
Los Angeles: -204,776
New York City: -385,444

International Immigration to the Metro Area (only those over 1,000 listed)
New York City: 23,681
Miami/Fort Lauderdale: 22,734
Houston: 12,995
Washington DC: 12,600
Boston: 10,505
Dallas/Fort Worth: 8,602
San Francisco/San Jose: 8,225
Seattle/Tacoma: 7,320
Los Angeles: 6,237
Orlando: 5,920
Atlanta: 5,691
Philadelphia: 4,410
Chicago: 4,284
Tampa: 3,536
Phoenix: 3,274
Minneapolis/St. Paul: 2,893
Charlotte: 2,693
Raleigh/Durham: 2,417
Austin: 2,277
Detroit: 2,159
Indianapolis: 2,116
Las Vegas: 2,036
Cincinnati: 1,506
Hartford: 1,457
St. Louis: 1,437
Sacramento: 1,362
New Orleans: 1,214
Cleveland: 1,177
Kansas City: 1,168
Portland, OR: 1,127
Providence: 1,077
Denver: 1,059
Jacksonville: 1,042
Greenville, SC: 1,011

Riverside/San Bernardino: -851

Over In the CvC forum there’s more of an objective and less anecdotal viewpoint. Here it’s more of a Boston is so desirable to everyone vibe. IRL that’s not what’s going on. A Houston poster shared this.

People of domestic American lineage don’t really move to Boston not in great enough numbers to touch all those that move out. Bosto received the huge bulk of its population gain though immigration and due to the pandemic we saw a huge drop in that from 2020-2021. I don’t know what the natural population growth was but considering 18,000+ people died Statewide in 2020/21 and we have the first or second lowest birth rate in the country I’ll go out in the limb and say it was negative.

[id77]

Looking at these numbers for areas I'm familiar with, the conclusion I arrive at isn't so much that interest to live in Boston (and many but not all of the negative growth cities on the list) has fallen dramatically, but rather cost has become prohibitive -- and it's that cost that drives people out. Let's be honest a moment: most of the complaining about metro Boston is cost, cost, cost. Rent's too high, food's too expensive, housing's too expensive, and so on.

Put another way, if Boston or San Francisco or NYC cost half what it does today to live there, would the numbers still show an exodus?

Going further, places like Denver, LA, San Diego, and Seattle have spiraled up in cost and show negative population growth. Contrast that with a St. Louis or Milwaukee where it hasn't so much, and I'd wager that there's very different underlying causes.

One datapoint I see in your list that reflects this is Salt Lake City vs Provo. SLC has increased dramatically in price as tech from Silicon Valley and Seattle have moved in, sending housing costs in some towns up over 100% in a matter of ~5 years. It's pushing a lot of residents in SLC county south to Utah county. To be sure, there's a little bit of politics going on there too as the long-time (and more conservative) Utah residents see the Salt Lake valley morph into Mountain California/Silicon Slopes and move further out to find more of that old Utah/LDS feeling, but there's a lot more "I can get twice the home for my money in Provo/Orem over SLC/South Jordan/Draper" going on. Denver's seeing a similar trend where tech money in Denver/Boulder is pushing the middle class further out to cities like Ft. Collins and Greeley.

The problem MA has is similar to CA in that the distance required to escape the cost has grown to the point that many just move all the way out rather than a little further out, though I'd be curious to see numbers for metro Worcester. At least in some of the negative metros, the concentration of high cost is small enough that one can move 30-45 minutes away and escape it (and you see that again with places like Provo and Ft. Collins); not so simple in places like Boston, NYC, San Francisco, and a few others.

[msRB311]

Well, yes I'm sure one of the reasons Boston is losing people and not gaining people is the cost. People can't afford it and others don't think it's worth it.

[BostonBornMassMade]

These numbers were reflected form 2010-2019 biggest difference being we gained far more immigrants than people lost in those years.

[AtkinsonDan]

Less traffic.

[msRB311]

Less inventory too.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by id77

The problem MA has is similar to CA in that the distance required to escape the cost has grown to the point that many just move all the way out rather than a little further out, though I'd be curious to see numbers for metro Worcester. At least in some of the negative metros, the concentration of high cost is small enough that one can move 30-45 minutes away and escape it (and you see that again with places like Provo and Ft. Collins); not so simple in places like Boston, NYC, San Francisco, and a few others.

We see Providence and Hartford saw their first positive net domestic in-migration since at least before 2010. Probably since ~1990. So I'd assume that is Boston and NYC people moving there.

[robr2]

Can you tell us what "Boston area" means and where these numbers are from?

[BostonBornMassMade]

literally the standard Boston MSA definition

https://www.census.gov/library/visua...e-growing.html Every Boston MSA MA county lost population except Plymouth County.

Half of all counties in Southern new England lost population. Including all of the most urban counties(except Worcester County if that counts.) Every Northern New England County except the Northernmost Maine county and westernmost VT county lost population.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Thousands of residents left Suffolk County during the pandemic

The county that includes Boston suffered one of the biggest population losses in the country as thousands of people moved during the pandemic, the U.S. Census Bureau reported Thursday.

Suffolk County's population declined by 3.3%, or more than 24,000 people, from July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021, Census data shows. Just six other large counties lost more people during the span.

The Boston metro area lost nearly 37,000 residents from 2020 to 2021, a decline of less than 1%, Census data shows.

In addition, most Census counties suffered a natural decline in population from 2020 to 2021, with deaths outpacing births, as COVID-19 spread through the country. Boston estimated that more than 1,400 people died from COVID.

On the flip side, the Dallas area grew by more than 97,000 residents, Phoenix jumped by more 78,000 people and greater Houston added 69,000 residents.

Fair to say if Suffolk Couty MA lost 24,000 people Boston lost about 20,000 people in a year.