Tropical Storm Updates? (Miami, Hollywood: home, moving, vacation)

[rubyredsox]

I am headed to So. FL and the keys for the next two weeks. (Aug 26th - Sept 5th). Is anyone concerned about the tropical storm brewing near by? I am trying to decide if I should keep my travel plans, or not? I'm hoping someone has better information on the potential of the storm, than I do.

[r_k]

Unfortunately it's too early to tell. This web page has as good a summary as any:

T.D. Nine: Potential U.S. Threat? - weather.com

Personaly I would not change my plans just for this, but watch the next few days.

[doggiebus]

It's to far out today to know what will actually happen on Monday the 27th with the first storm which will be called Isaac. The second area of concern is even further away. Friday we should have a better idea where its going. For those that haven't gotten their hurricane supply list complete, the next few days might be a good time to do it.

[FlyMIA]

Yea it is just too early to tell. There are a lot of factors involved in knowing where this thing is going, one of the biggest factors is how strong it will be in about 2-3 days and that is the most difficult thing to predict about a storm. Really the NHC and everyone else just puts out their best guesses. I would just wait and see and we will know a lot more on Thursday Night-Friday.

[Chelito23]

Time for ad nauseum, wall-to-wall coverage, analyzing the millions of possible track scenarios, most of which don't bring a hurricane to Miami at all.

I have seen this same track countless times before with other storms in this same area. It brings them right over the highest mountains of the Antilles....and then Cuba's to finish it off. That track would keep it as an open wave by the time it nears us and it would be weakened after all that jagged terrain, so it will probably go south as a tropical wave and not be picked up by the northerly steering winds way up in the atmosphere.

Now, if the storm stays due west, south of the islands and strengthens, and then takes a sharp north curve at the right point, that would be worrisome. But things have to play out and many deciding factors remain to be seen. Even if you are in the Keys for a storm, it's might not be a biggie. There are shelters, evacuations...well, thats my outlook.

Some people get whipped up into a frenzy when there is anything in the Atlantic basin and use Andrew as their validation to overreact. It's just a matter of being aware and realizing the odds of the small part of a potential hurricane actually causing destruction in the one spot where you happen to be at one time is very small.

Nowadays, people have countless ways to be in touch and aware of weather threats in advance...you shouldn't worry or cancel anything at this time.

[JimboUSMC17]

Well the thing is, this is moving fairly quick for a storm. So even if it does encounter mounatainous terrain, (which is more than likely will) it won't affect it as much. They are still predicting it to be in this area as a hurricane but it seems as if the center of the cone has dropped to the keys. Again, it is still too ealry to tell. But either way, I hope your stay in the keys is in the latter part of your vacation. I wouldn't risk it. Either way, I'd say by Friday into Saturday you should have a better idea.

GL!!

[catt6]

rubyredsox, nobody has any better information than you do on the storm's potential; these things can change on a dime. They could be 'predicted' to be huge, and then turn out to be nothing (happens all the time) - or they could turn into something serious. There's no way to know until it happens.

The thing to do is watch the Weather Channel, or look on Accuweather.com for current weather information. (not 'predictions' - but to see what is actually happening at any given moment).

the only way to know what's happening is when it actually happens... any predictions more than 1-2 days out are basically just useless chattering & speculation. so just watch the weather info and see what happens closer to your dates.

[FloridaKash]

Everyone is keeping an eye on this thing. Who knows where its going yet. I like to use Hurricane Spaghetti Models / Spaghetti Charts / Tropical Forecast / Hurricane Charts Models / Tropical Update to keep an eye on storms.

[FlyMIA]

According to some local guys here it has a better chance, 60s%/40s% to be a tropical storm than a hurricane. At the same time it all depends on the path. Friday morning the NHC should have a good idea. My advice is DONT watch the Weather Channel and other large weather sites. They are a mess and they want it to seem a lot worse than it is sometime to get the ratings up. If you are on the mainland for the possible storm arrival I would not worry much. It does not look as of now as it will be a strong one. But of course that can always change. The keys can be a mess due to the roads. If the storm is as strong as it is predicted by the NHC which right now is a Cat-1 a day or two after the storm everything should be 100% normal. Key-word Should. You could always just try to plan to come in on Wednesday.

See what the forecast say on Friday than call the airline if you are flying and make changes if needed earlier rather than later.

[rubyredsox]

I appreciate everyone's feedback!

I am holding tight and will probably need to decide on Friday, and no later than Saturday. The plans are to be in Hollywood area from the 26th till the 31st (business), then head to keys for few days and then to Ft. Lauderdale on Tuesday the 4th, to head home the 5th. So, I'm watching Isaac, and thinking I can get into Ft. Lauderdale on Sunday okay...just rain? (hopefully)....but then the other TD brewing in the east is on my scope too. I guess we will tell in the next couple of days there if its going to pick up some force as well. If it decides to make a visit the later part of next week then that could really messes things up.

to FloridaKash - great link! Thank you for sharing!

I don't want to sound too worried, but aside from not wanting anything disastrous for anyone...the keys has always been a bucket list trip for me.

Thanks for all the great advice!