Values after the hurricane?? (Naples, Marco Island: sales, mortgage, new house)

[JPrzybylski07]

Originally Posted by night0wl

Many many factors at play here.

1 - Supply of houses will be reduced due to damage and destruction. So that means more people will be forced to look for housing. This is particularly acute in the affordable housing realm. I think this will act as a positive lift on pricing across the board.

2 - Demand will either increase with all the workers coming into town to fix up the hosing stock...or drop because people who evacuated will choose not to return. In the end, I think its likely going to be that demand goes up as Naples/Marco Island and the West Coast of FL experience a mini-construction boom of renovations/repairs. I think this will act as a positive lift on pricing.

Long term however...

3 - Taxes will have to go up to deal with all the replacement costs. I don't know how cities and municipalities work in terms of insuring losses. But if this area wants to go back to the way it was, there's going to be more money needed. Not to mention, there were major failings in key areas (sewage treatment, storm drainage/flood prevention). You can *BET* on the Directors of those areas of County/City bureaucracy extending their palm. Never waste a crisis after all. When taxes go up, your property value drops. There is no value created...just shifted from private homeowner equity to government coffers. This will act as a negative pressure on pricing

4 - HOAs will likely rise *AND* there will be special assessments. Bottom line, most places underfund their reservers. Also, with new communities, they likely don't have enough reserves to replace damage. My community, for example, lost street signs, lots of street lights, the gate, and the a ton of landscaping in common areas and home areas. The HOA technically covers landscaping in homeowners area. I can expect contentious Board and HOA meetings as these communities decide to either not go back to the way they were by eliminating features (even if its landscaping...its a feature to me), raising dues permanently to make structural changes, or levying special assessments to get back to good. This will act as a negative pressure on pricing.

5 - Damage to tourist/seasonal areas like the beach. How soon/quickly will those areas come back? Who knows. We are only 2-3 months away from Season. Its very likely that many facilities will *NOT* come back by the time season arrives. If there's a lot of beach erosion, there's now way that comes back in time as nourishment projects take years of permitting and engineering. Not to mention...who pays? Those battles will be epic as beachfront property owners duke it out with inland county residents about the value of the beach to us all. This is what happened in NC after storms wiped out their beaches. Many facilities and small businesses just wont survive a down season. This will act as a negative pressure on pricing.

6 - Macro factors. If the NE or Midwest have a terrible, nasty, cold winter....it will help our area. If not, then a middling snowbird flowthrough will likely be the nail in the coffin and prices will come down significantly due to a localized recession.

All in all, I'm fairly concerned about the long term recoverability of this area. This was no Wilma. This storm has the potential of forever altering the landscape and making collier county *LESS* upscale, less exclusive, less desirable. Much depends on how our County Leadership choose to navigate the next few years and how much they can get from Washington in terms of grants to get this area back to pristine. Remember, it had been over 10 years since a storm did damage to our area. The tree canopy cover was a major appeal to residents and guests.

If you want to see an area where a storm can just alter forever, look at Charlotte County after Hurricane Charley. Prior to Charley, it was a small town feel, desirable area. After Charlie leveled much of the county, the undesirable element stayed behind and much of the desirable element left. The "A" rated County School system cratered. Property values still have not recovered to that level and much of the new development there is just infill and ugly.

Wow very interesting points.

[Naplesfan]

5 - Damage to tourist/seasonal areas like the beach. How soon/quickly will those areas come back? Who knows. We are only 2-3 months away from Season. Its very likely that many facilities will *NOT* come back by the time season arrives. If there's a lot of beach erosion, there's now way that comes back in time as nourishment projects take years of permitting and engineering. Not to mention...who pays? Those battles will be epic as beachfront property owners duke it out with inland county residents about the value of the beach to us all. This is what happened in NC after storms wiped out their beaches. Many facilities and small businesses just wont survive a down season. This will act as a negative pressure on pricing.

[Naplesfan]

5 - Damage to tourist/seasonal areas like the beach. How soon/quickly will those areas come back? Who knows. We are only 2-3 months away from Season. Its very likely that many facilities will *NOT* come back by the time season arrives. If there's a lot of beach erosion, there's now way that comes back in time as nourishment projects take years of permitting and engineering. Not to mention...who pays? Those battles will be epic as beachfront property owners duke it out with inland county residents about the value of the beach to us all. This is what happened in NC after storms wiped out their beaches. Many facilities and small businesses just wont survive a down season. This will act as a negative pressure on pricing.

Naples recovers quickly. Season here starts mid October. Landscapers will be crazy busy. Good thing plants grow fast. Naples has dealt with beach erosion for a long time. They're good at it.

Retailers came through pretty well. There wasn't the devastation there has been in previous canes. There's always a rollover in startup restaurants etc in September. Long time businesses plan for it and will do just fine.

Naples is a resilient place.

Napllesfan

PS There will be some good real estate deals in the keys. The landsharks are already gathering. The keys have been forced to put in a sewer system. That opens up all kinds of real estate for development. Combined with the storm devastation, building looks bright in the keys.

[Corrie22]

There will be some good real estate deals in the keys.

You might be surprised. People that wanted to sell, sold long way back. People will hold out for their money that don't want/have to sell.....Keys is the most underpriced water front in the entire country

[night0wl]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

There will be some good real estate deals in the keys.

You might be surprised. People that wanted to sell, sold long way back. People will hold out for their money that don't want/have to sell.....Keys is the most underpriced water front in the entire country

It'll all be cash deals...the Keys will be uninsurable for both private windstorm and perhaps federal flood insurance going forward. In which case, it'll be impossible to get a mortgage.

[seeshelly]

I think mobile homes will become uninsurable. There was already only one insurer in SW Florida that Im aware of to begin with and the premiums were sky high. Last time a big storm came through communites like Enchanting Shores and Marco Shores, Henderson Creek became uninsurable. I would guess that happens again. It took a couple of my relatives who live in those communites 10+ years to find insurance. Curious if they can hang on to those parks. I know the developers have been trying to buy those for quite some time since its prime property down by the new growth. I know we all want to be positive but I think that the market is going to become FLOODED with homes for sale and thereby reducing values. JMO

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by night0wl

It'll all be cash deals...the Keys will be uninsurable for both private windstorm and perhaps federal flood insurance going forward. In which case, it'll be impossible to get a mortgage.

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Nope, if they have insurance, which most do....they are using that money to upgrade. Then, if they want to sell, put it on the market at a higher price.
This is no different than any other hurricane that's hit the Keys, or south Fl....plenty of them have hit the Keys...insurance will be available, no different
https://www.weather.gov/images/key/R...o/image028.jpg

[night0wl]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

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Nope, if they have insurance, which most do....they are using that money to upgrade. Then, if they want to sell, put it on the market at a higher price.
This is no different than any other hurricane that's hit the Keys, or south Fl....plenty of them have hit the Keys...insurance will be available, no different
https://www.weather.gov/images/key/R...o/image028.jpg

Its not insurance to do repairs....its insurance available for the buyer! Citizens is already the only game in town if you have an old house and dont have mitigations. Its not a stretch to think of what is happening in Obamacare to happen in the private windstorm insurance market and company after company jettisoning FL. It happened in 2005/2006 after all.

[Naplesfan]

Actually it's not the only game in town. Lloyds of London for example.

Naplesfan

[Fltaz]

Originally Posted by seeshelly

I think mobile homes will become uninsurable. There was already only one insurer in SW Florida that Im aware of to begin with and the premiums were sky high. Last time a big storm came through communites like Enchanting Shores and Marco Shores, Henderson Creek became uninsurable. I would guess that happens again. It took a couple of my relatives who live in those communites 10+ years to find insurance. Curious if they can hang on to those parks. I know the developers have been trying to buy those for quite some time since its prime property down by the new growth. I know we all want to be positive but I think that the market is going to become FLOODED with homes for sale and thereby reducing values. JMO

I tend to agree with you. Insurance is hard to get for some homes and when you do get it, it is externally expensive not to mention the FEMA flood insurance that is required for many homes now. It will only get more expensive after this. After witnessing what has happen to other towns after a large hurricane I fully expect a lot of houses to go on the market in time once this is all over.