Why Can't Nashville Ever Match Charlotte in Population Growth (transplants, real estate)

[BlueRedTide]

Alrite I Had it, I'm Baffled, Nashville is It City Right!?. Nashville has the culture it has the character, it has the cool. Most Everybody I Know would prefer Nashville over Charlotte. Nashville Has A IMAGE Charlotte hasssss???? Articles Abound that would boost the civic pride of even the most critical Nashvillain, Strongest Economy top 5 IN THE NATION for Job Growth. Thriving Music Scene, Nashville Hot Chicken, Red Hot Job Market, Next Boomtown in the south, 100 Billion Dollar City, Rent and Office Vacancy some of the lowest in the Country, REAL ESTATE BOOMING, Poll after Poll on City Data Shows Nashville More Popular than Charlotte, Why Then is Nashville continuing to be outpaced by Bland but Beautiful Cultureless Charlotte???

Last Census Estimates Charlotte grows by 40000+, Nashville grows by 30000+ WHATS CHARLOTTE's SECRET LOL

[somewhereoutthere15]

If you look at the most recent population estimates that just were released the other day, you would find that Nashville is starting to catch up to Charlotte in pace. Only reason why Charlotte still grows faster than Nashville is mostly due to the already higher and ever growing population and already established and healthy business climate. Nashville is about where Charlotte was in the early 2000's as far as population growth goes.

[nashvols]

If it makes you feel any better, we edged them out in percentage growth (both 2014-2015 and 2010-2015)...but essentially the two are growing at the same rate.

I'm not too worried about it.

What I am worried about is managing and planning for this growth. With the addition of 36,435 people last year, it's clear that our population growth is hitting new levels.

2011 +27,579
2012 +28,998
2013 +31,561
2014 +34,876
2015 +36,435

If that trend continues, we'll be seeing current Charlotte numerical growth numbers by 2020...but we don't have the infrastructure for that. Billions of dollars of improvements in the form of roads, schools, mass transit, utilities, sewer lines, stormwater management, etc are needed to accommodate this additional population growth, and few people seem to be prepared for that reality...especially the anti-everything hayseeds in our state clowngeslature.

[somewhereoutthere15]

That's some amazing data. Just shows how much the growth is accelerating for the area. On this trajectory, we should be hitting 40k in just a few years. Where exactly did you find those numbers?

[Hey_Hey]

That puts our growth at 100 people per day, 700 per week, and 3000 per month. The amount of housing that is required for that is staggering. Assuming 2.5 people per unit (which may be too conservative) that would require 40 new housing units daily, 280 per week, or 1200 per month. That is, essentially, a ~20-25 story condo or apartment tower needing to come online every week or an average sized suburban subdivision needing to come online every week. Of course, housing development doesn't work like that, but it does put the strain on infrastructure, government agencies, hospitals, and social services in perspective. As an example, a couple weeks ago there was not a single available hospital bed in any hospital in Nashville (possible exception of Metro General). Growth is exciting, but people and institutions have to do the dirty work and non glamorous jobs to make sure society continues to operate.

[nashvols]

Originally Posted by somewhereoutthere15

That's some amazing data. Just shows how much the growth is accelerating for the area. On this trajectory, we should be hitting 40k in just a few years. Where exactly did you find those numbers?

Not sure if this link will work the way I want....

American FactFinder - Results

But I looked at the annual population estimates for metros and did the math for yearly growth. I found that the growth increase averages about 2,214 per year....so if that trend continues...

2016 +38,649
2017 +40,863
2018 +43,077
2019 +45,291
2020 +47,505

Of course, it's hard to predict the future...2015's growth wasn't as large as 2014's. We might start to plateau at 40,000/year. We might continue to accelerate.

The thing to keep in mind here is the impact this kind of growth has over a decade. 2000-2010 saw a growth of 289,603 residents (28,960 per year avg). Upping that average by 8,000 or so increases the decade growth by 80,000...it's crazy to think that by 2020 we could be seeing about 20,000 more residents per year than we did in the 2000s.

[shinestx]

I used to live in Charlotte about fifteen years ago, and blandsville. I still go lots of times and that aspect has not changed. I've wondered why it's growing so fast and have concluded that it is simply placed in that Eastern Seaboard Southern corridor. In other words, it gets A LOT of Nooooo Yawkahhhz! Also, if you'll look at the quality of the suburban sprawl underway in the ring around the core, it's low quality stuff. The bulk of transplants moving there are somewhat lower income "retirees" or those who haven't quite yet made it to Florida, or have come "half-back". I have noticed that the newcomers to Charlotte, which BTW I think is a beautiful city, but the newcomers tend to be quite "low class" as my dear old proper Southern mother would put it. If you also consider that NC has about 3 million more people than Tennessee, then all that's implied by the small town bumpkins of any state who always migrate to the largest city, and also consider that Charlotte is also (for all intents and purposes) SC's largest city too, you get a lot localites moving to "the big city".

That said, Charlotte does have one of the busiest airports in the country which helps for business recruiting. It is also not so far from some pretty areas (near the Appalachians).

[Hey_Hey]

This thread has kind of been rendered moot hasn't it? With the latest population estimates, it appears Nashville HAS caught (and technically surpassed) Charlotte's growth rates. Of course, it's all prelim until 2020, but it's all we have to go on.

[JMT]

Originally Posted by Hey_Hey

This thread has kind of been rendered moot hasn't it? With the latest population estimates, it appears Nashville HAS caught (and technically surpassed) Charlotte's growth rates. Of course, it's all prelim until 2020, but it's all we have to go on.

While waiting for updated census figures, we can look at new homes built since the number of new homes is a pretty good reflection on the growth of an area. While it's not an exact science, it still provides a view of how metro areas are doing.

In 2015, the Charlotte metro area had 18,790 new homes built, and Nashville wasn't far behind with 17,810 new homes built.

So far in 2016 Charlotte has seen 2,237 new homes whereas Nashville has seen 3,969 new homes. The year is still young, but so far Nashville's growth is accelerating past Charlotte's. In fact, so far in 2016 the only metro areas in the country with more new homes constructed than Nashville are, in order: Dallas-Ft Worth (7,205), Houston (6,942), Atlanta (6,628), New York (4,954), Los Angeles (4,582), and Phoenix (4,019).

Building Permits Survey