Is Columbia the next Franklin? (Murfreesboro, Hendersonville: transplants, real estate, house)

[RiverGirl7]

In many ways, it seems poised to be. There is no more land to buy in Williamson County. Growth has typically headed south in Nashville area. Real estate is nuts in WilCo and will continue to be, especially in Franklin. I am reading stories of people making multiple (10x or more) over-asking offers, waiving all contingencies only to be beat out by all cash every time. Those people are fed up or close to it and will start looking elsewhere, many are already. But will they consider Columbia?

I've been there, the downtown is cute, some of the developments are very pretty. Definitely some sketchier areas that seem kind of dumpy. That could all easily be improved on though.

Thoughts?

Can anyone point me to some economic data or research that would indicate where Columbia is headed?

[Canadian2021]

I think i have heard schools are not good on Columbia and that takes a toll on real estate.

[llsmith42]

No data to support, just my opinion...


Columbia is kinda far to commute to Nashville, but as Franklin/WilCo continue to grow and attract businesses, Columbia/Maury County will be a more and more popular base for commuters to Franklin/WilCo. I think many housing developments will continue to move south into Maury County, (perhaps northern Marshall County and Western Rutherford County) but I don't expect as many office parks and commercial developments as they have in Franklin.

[JMT]

Originally Posted by Canadian2021

I think i have heard schools are not good on Columbia and that takes a toll on real estate.

Yes, that is very true. Williamson County has always had good schools which helped it attract a lot of white collar families.

I'm sure Columbia will continue to slowly gentrify, but I think the next area within the MSA to start seeing more office parks will be Mt Juliet which has commuter rail to downtown as well as good schools, lots of available land, and super close proximity to the airport.

It doesn't help Columbia's case that it's not directly on an interstate. Plus, Williamson County is far from being fully developed. There are, literally, thousands of acres along I-840 in WillCo that are ripe for development and are closer to Franklin. I think Columbia will likely continue to grow, but more as a bedroom community than as the next Franklin/CoolSprings.

[somewhereoutthere15]

The growth isn't entirely moving south. I think Gallatin will be the next Franklin before Columbia. They have nice schools on the western side of town towards Hendersonville and it gained more residents than any other city in the state in 2019 except for Murfreesboro, Nashville, and Spring Hill. On top of having a nice square, it's also getting a Facebook data center.

Columbia also has the nice square and moving forward, I could see it being a place for people who to go to Franklin 2-3 times a week for work. However, it is not THE next Franklin. Not yet, at least.

[shinestx]

One word: Schools. Williamson has the best. Maury has far from the best, and they're inconsistently adequate. There will of course be spillover from the continued southern growth, but Spring Hill and Thompsons Station will pick up most of that on the Williamson side. They've also kept up with the infrastructure on the Williamson side. Columbia will benefit from this growth for sure, and its population by 2030 should be around 50,000. But Spring Hill will be 40-50% larger than Columbia by then, benefiting more from its Williamson portion, again because of the schools. SH will be around 70-75,000 and TS around 12-15,000 by 2030. There are also plans to beef up Hwy 96 from Murfreesboro to Franklin and expand surface routes from Antioch to Nolensville/Franklin for better access and even to Brentwood via the Burkitt-Concord connector. Additionally the area around Lenox Village in southern Davidson is also booming.

There is still plenty of developable land in Williamson too. It's just in larger supply to the east, N'ville and south to Arrington/Triune/Bethesda/Peytonsville, which are little more than pimples on a map right now but they'll be the next places to see the boom, not only because they're still within the Williamson boundaries. The growth has already taken off on the east side of I-65 from Goose Creek. And Franklin will likely annex a lot of the area east of I-65. By 2030, it will have more than 100,000 residents.

And the highest growth of the MSA for the past decade has been right down the i-24 axis and into Rutherford. The land through there is also flatter than in western Williamson and in Maury. I've seen projections that 350,000 to 500,000 new residents will live in the Antioch/ThompsonStation/Almaville 'triangle' by 2040. That doesn't even include the other population growth in the rest of the three counties.

Overall Williamson is projected to have around 320-330,000, Maury 140-150,000, and Rutherford 430-440,000 by 2030. Davidson should be pushing 800,000 by then.

[somewhereoutthere15]

Some people have the mentality that Williamson is getting to expensive for many and that'll hurt its growth, but that can't be further from the truth. While many longtime residents and others from less expensive areas may explore other options, the abundance of NY and CA transplants will keep rooftops coming into Williamson for a long time.

[Hankbills]

Originally Posted by somewhereoutthere15

Some people have the mentality that Williamson is getting expensive.

It is expensive in the northern part of county but places like Mt. Juliet are getting expensive too.

I don't see Columbia becoming the next Franklin but I could see Mt. Juliet. They seem to have really moved up a level in the last 5-10 years. Lots going for Mt. Juliet right now. They are practically building a downtown area from the ground up in the last few years and things only found on Gatlinburg, such as the Ultimate Christmas Place, are starting to appear much like when Franklin started becoming more touristy 10-15 years ago. I'm not sure the money of Williamson is extending south because it appears to be extending out east of downtown.

[RiverGirl7]

Originally Posted by Hankbills

It is expensive in the northern part of county but places like Mt. Juliet are getting expensive too.

I don't see Columbia becoming the next Franklin but I could see Mt. Juliet. They seem to have really moved up a level in the last 5-10 years. Lots going for Mt. Juliet right now. They are practically building a downtown area from the ground up in the last few years and things only found on Gatlinburg, such as the Ultimate Christmas Place, are starting to appear much like when Franklin started becoming more touristy 10-15 years ago. I'm not sure the money of Williamson is extending south because it appears to be extending out east of downtown.

Our realtor, who's been here and in the business 25 years, says expansion has historically been south and east from Nashville. Based on what we've seen in the last few months while house hunting, I'd say that seems pretty accurate.

[grdamin23]

I’ve thought about this myself.

My guess is it will become a blue collar/middle class version of Franklin. Solid town with a great charm, but not going to attract the kind of higher end development that Brentwood (Maryland Farms), Franklin (Cool Springs/Berry Farms) and even Spring Hill (June Lake) are attracting. It just doesn’t have the base to support it right now (it’s pretty telling Columbia doesn’t even have stores like Target or Publix). The other issue is it’s further inland from the Interstate compared to Brentwood, Franklin and Spring Hill.

They say the upcoming June Lake development along I-65 in Spring Hill is about at the 30 minute mark from downtown, and that’s the farthest they want to go.