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Old 05-19-2009, 05:38 AM
 
1,983 posts, read 7,521,815 times
Reputation: 418

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Doom and Gloomers are taking it on the chin this week. Lots of positive housing-related data being released. The worst is over. On to stability.

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Old 05-19-2009, 05:57 AM
 
Location: Stewartsville, NJ
7,577 posts, read 22,618,195 times
Reputation: 1260
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoorestownResident View Post
Doom and Gloomers are taking it on the chin this week. Lots of positive housing-related data being released. The worst is over. On to stability.

I agree... things do seem to be picking up. In my industry, we are typically the last to feel the recession and the first to sense a recovery. My phone has not stopped ringing. Sorry doom and gloomers... it had to happen eventually
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Old 05-19-2009, 06:04 AM
 
Location: Here but I spend time There.
1,972 posts, read 5,424,640 times
Reputation: 562
Repent both of you....Christ is coming....the end is near....confess your sins, the market has not recovered, it's an illusion by the forces of evil to make you feel secure. Repent you sinners, repent I tell ya! LOL
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Old 05-19-2009, 06:10 AM
 
79 posts, read 127,699 times
Reputation: 39
Do you guys read the news or just have some filter which removes ... 99% of the news?

RealtyTrac: Record foreclosure rates in April - Pittsburgh Business Times: - April record month for foreclosures

Case Shiller: Rate Of House Price Decline Finally Decelerating - Case Schiller shows 30% more to go, rate of decline slowing. Of course, it's only slowing down because January saw a record decline in home prices - it's hard to set consecutive records.

2011 is the next mortgage crises, Option ARM and Alt-A being bigger and with worse loan terms than subprime:

http://bp3.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/.../IMFresets.jpg

Bet: In one year, house prices will be more than 10% lower than where they are now.
Second bet: In two years, we will be hearing about the "Option ARM" mortgage crises.
Third bet: Foreclosures will accelerate this year thanks to the backlog created by the three month moratorium which just expired.

Anyone care to take me up?
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Old 05-19-2009, 06:12 AM
 
1,983 posts, read 7,521,815 times
Reputation: 418
Quote:
Originally Posted by wileynj View Post
I agree... things do seem to be picking up. In my industry, we are typically the last to feel the recession and the first to sense a recovery. My phone has not stopped ringing. Sorry doom and gloomers... it had to happen eventually
I am not in the R/E industry, I manage money, but I have a good friend who is a realtor and she has done over $3 million in sales YTD in South Jersey which is well ahead of last year.
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Old 05-19-2009, 06:14 AM
 
1,983 posts, read 7,521,815 times
Reputation: 418
Quote:
Originally Posted by pfwnj View Post
Do you guys read the news or just have some filter which removes ... 99% of the news?

RealtyTrac: Record foreclosure rates in April - Pittsburgh Business Times: - April record month for foreclosures

Case Shiller: Rate Of House Price Decline Finally Decelerating - Case Schiller shows 30% more to go, rate of decline slowing. Of course, it's only slowing down because January saw a record decline in home prices - it's hard to set consecutive records.

2011 is the next mortgage crises, Option ARM and Alt-A being bigger and with worse loan terms than subprime:

IMFresets.jpg (image)

Bet: In one year, house prices will be more than 10% lower than where they are now.
Second bet: In two years, we will be hearing about the "Option ARM" mortgage crises.
Third bet: Foreclosures will accelerate this year thanks to the backlog created by the three month moratorium which just expired.

Anyone care to take me up?
Foreclosures are lagging indicators, it takes about a year to foreclose on a property. Foreclosure activity in the local markets I follow is a non-event. Forclosure data may increase for months after the market turns. Similar to the unemployment rate, another lagging indicator, normally peaking 6-9 months after the economy turns.
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Old 05-19-2009, 06:20 AM
 
79 posts, read 127,699 times
Reputation: 39
No comment on record price declines and mortgage crises two years from over?

If you are so confident in the green-shoots lie, why not take me up on my bets? The only thing you have to lose is status on a message board, which makes this bet even less risky than a mortgage backed security in 2005!
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Old 05-19-2009, 06:22 AM
 
1,983 posts, read 7,521,815 times
Reputation: 418
Affordability is now driving the market. There is no sense in taking a bet. I don't have time for silliness.
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Old 05-19-2009, 06:25 AM
 
Location: Montgomery County, PA
2,771 posts, read 6,279,054 times
Reputation: 606
Quote:
Originally Posted by pfwnj View Post
Bet: In one year, house prices will be more than 10% lower than where they are now.
Second bet: In two years, we will be hearing about the "Option ARM" mortgage crises.
Third bet: Foreclosures will accelerate this year thanks to the backlog created by the three month moratorium which just expired.

Anyone care to take me up?
Case Shiller set a record (4th consecutive) for year on year declines for the NY Metro region.

The map of foreclosures in NY Times, recently posted here, indicates that they primarily hit areas that generally aren't generally recommended on this board.

I think nominal prices for New York metro will bottom out mid to late 2010, with affordability bottoming out about 6 months before then.
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Old 05-19-2009, 06:26 AM
 
79 posts, read 127,699 times
Reputation: 39
Quote:
Affordability is now driving the market. There is no sense in taking a bet. I don't have time for silliness.
But you do have time to post random stuff on a message board. The whole "I don't have time for this" gambit is kind of "silly" when you keep devoting time to the very thing you claim not to have time for.
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