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Every model in the link you posted shows the storm moving NE for a period of time. Out of those 19 models, 15 have it turning back to the NW and aiming for a range of Delaware to CT. Let's say hypothetically that it does hit...Remember, the winds stretch 400 miles. Strong sustained winds will shut down ferry, disrupt/cancel subway, and close bridges to trucks. Plus, the probabilities of significant storm surges on top of a higher than normal tide is in the 80% range.
How long do we have after it turns (as is expected on 80% of the forecast models) before it hits? How long does it take the MTA to shut down? Ignoring this isn't going to make it go away.
The reason people freak out about these things is because the news channels go all out with the dramatic music and graphics and show people in a frenzy buying lanterns and batteries and tell people that there's no bottled water left for miles. If you watch enough of that, you get worked up, especially if you are older and live alone. Also, people here have a tendency to think (ridiculously) that if they and their belongings, house, car, whatever are not affected then it was no big deal. I heard people at work that had no effect from Irene discussing their disappointment that it wasn't any fun.
I saw the Mayor's press conference last night at 6 and he had this vibe of the whole thing being no big deal. So he'll open the schools and more than half the kids won't show up because their parents will keep them home, or they won't be able to get there because mass transit won't be running or because they are taking the mayor's advice to "stay indoors." How wasteful is that? Not to mention putting those students and teachers that try to get there at risk.
Just once I'd like to hear one of these mayors say "If you are an employer, please take the safety of your workers into consideration" but no one does. There are probably thousands of people who have bosses that will say "Too bad. You need to get here" even if they shut down the transit system. Even Bloomberg said "Well, we survived the transit strike" so obviously that means everyone will have no problem traveling to work in this mess.
I don't know what to believe. Last year, before Irene, we received a letter in the mail from the co-op board about four days before with instructions, one of which was to remove all items from the balcony. This year the letter says nothing about that. The news coverage seems overdone (all Sandy, all the time, shots of reporters on every beach around, etc.) but seems more subdued for a storm that could be the worst in history. The Irene coverage screamed panic, but this one not so much.
look I don't have a crystal ball and I live in Florida but based on my experience:
- It would be best if Your daughter waits the storm out or if she leaves Sunday morning before the winds pick up This storm will be felt. It is not a good idea to drive in tropical storm or Hurricane winds.
Yes. If only she would listen to reason.
I want her to wait. I don't know what she'll do, and I'm sure she won't tell me until well after the fact.
Years ago, she also heard the terrifying "approaching train" sound as Hurricane Fran and its resulting tornadoes hit Raleigh and saw the devastation the next morning. But it may have not sunk in. She has always thought that she was invincible. She always believed I am too cautious. I believe I am appropriately sensible.
I hope all of you up there take every precaution. If nothing happens, that's great. It's not hype for the media to warn people to prepare. It's just good sense.
Try as they might, weather forecasters cannot predict the future. They just do their best.
In the event of a power outage, some high rises will not be able to pump water. So we are ready with DRINKING water but why not also take a nice shower this morning and then fill up the tub with water with a good stopper. That way, if you lose water you will have something to flush your toilet with besides your pricey Poland Spring...or for the Park Avenue crowd, their even pricier Appollinaris.
In the event of a power outage, some high rises will not be able to pump water. So we are ready with DRINKING water but why not also take a nice shower this morning and then fill up the tub with water with a good stopper. That way, if you lose water you will have something to flush your toilet with besides your pricey Poland Spring...or for the Park Avenue crowd, their even pricier Appollinaris.
don't a lot of taller apartment buildings in NYC have a water tank on their roofs? I remember some kinda storage tank on some buildings.
You might also want to make as much ice as you can now and keep it in the freezer to keep foods fresh as long as you can if your power goes out.
You may want to think creatively and cook now what you might want to eat later and won't be able to cook later.
If you have eggs, boil them to eat later.
If you don't have a manual can opener, open some cans of food that you can cook over your gas stove later. If you have a pet who eats canned food, make sure you open those, too.
Make coffee and put it in a thermos (as late as possible so it stays warm).
If you don't have a battery-operated radio, either find one or make friends with someone who does. I remember the morning after Hurricane Fran, it was eerie to hear NO radio stations -- except one, and they were two guys who were very excited when they found they had listeners "all the way from Raleigh." I don't know where they were from, but everything was down in our region.
Don't put yourself at risk and end up hurting or killing yourself as people often do during and after storms:
Do not use any camp stove in the house. It will use up the oxygen and kill your family. It is not unusual for this nightmare to happen. Use it outside.
If you're not used to using a chainsaw, don't. People seriously cut themselves all the time after power outages because of that.
Do not go outside after the storm -- power lines will be down and some will be live. People get electrocuted.
Don't fall off a ladder or roof as you try to remove limbs.
Last edited by lovebrentwood; 10-28-2012 at 09:15 AM..
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