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What's the minimum I'd have to pay for a house in a safe area with decent schools, within a 30 minute (one-way) commute from Manhattan? Let's say 1500 square feet. Either in NYC proper or in Jersey, does not matter.
A very rough estimate for the area, city and suburbs, within 30 minutes and a good school district would be $450-500k minimum for a single family house, and some of these might need work or be on a postage stamp of land. If you want an attached property, that could be a little less. Some areas will be much higher than this threshold, but parts of Queens, NNJ, and Lower Westchester could fit the bill. Riverdale in The Bronx would be more expensive for a house, but you could find an apartment in that range. If you could tolerate 40-45 minutes on a peak train you could be in someplace like Floral Park, Long Island, and you can still find a 3BR house there for under $400k.
Thirty minutes is subjective in Manhattan since some trains go to Grand Central Terminal, the LIRR and NJ Transit go to Penn Station, so while it can be 30 minutes from station-to-station, the door-to-door commute can be longer. The subway goes to Queens, but it will take longer from Eastern and Northern Queens than the LIRR does on a peak train, hence those areas could be within time parameters on the LIRR. Also, some parts of New Jersey have bus service to the Port Authority Terminal. And, once you get to a terminal in Manhattan it is a subway commute or walk to the office. So, if your office is closer to Penn, it's faster from Long Island and New Jersey. If the office is closer to Grand Central, Westchester and better parts of The Bronx (basically Riverdale from a schools perspective), are going to be faster.