If 'urban pioneers' succeed in DC, would half of NOVA pour in? (Arlington: condo, crime)

[Tiger Beer]

If 'urban pioneers' succeed in DC, would half of NOVA pour in?

I say this with the hopes of NOT bringing this into a RACIAL discussion.

What I'm really trying to say is...the HOUSING in DC is actually quite beautiful and attractive...and particularly interesting to what the current generation really wants in 'city living'.

(I'm also aware that probably half of the people living in NOVA want to be IN a suburb and would live there no matter what was going on in DC).

I guess to the statement above...there ARE quite a few younger generation people quickly pursuing the DC choice despite any perceived negatives as well.

But if 'they' suceed...the 'urban pioneers', and the demographics (and any real or imagined safety concerns) changed quite a bit...would half of the people choosing to live in NOVA pour into DC?

[ChristineVA]

I don't know about "half" but I think DC is definitely getting more of a look as they are improving areas. I work in the National's stadium area and have since 2001. It has greatly improved and there is quite a bit of new residential growth here. When I started working here, we were right in the "projects" watching weekly drug busts out the window and being accosted by bums and criminals all if we went outside. It has been a dramatic change.

Whether the folks that have moved in are from NoVA or not, I can't say. I can say they are most definitely white.

[michgc]

Until the schools improve, I don't think people with children will be pouring in. Perhaps singles or childless couples.

[perries]

What michgc said. But the changes has been remarkable, as ChristineVA notes. My sister lived on the Hill on 8th St NE off Mass Ave. in the mid-90s and there were murders down the street, her guests' cars were broken in to regularly, and it was a huge hike to the nearest grocery store. When I first moved here, we were driving back to her place one night, and all the cars in front of us started going slow and then pulling over to talk to people on the sidewalk - took us a looong stupid minute to notice that all the people on the sidewalk were hookers, oh okay, or maybe just very social ladies in very abbreviated outfits. Later we learned we had driven down a stretch of road notorious for those services. Not that I think there is no work for prostitutes these days, but it was a different scene not so long ago.

[stpickrell]

The prevailing expectation for families in the USA is for a SFH on 0.1 or more acres. So there will be a stream of families moving out, either after the kid is born or (more likely) the second kid arrives.

There will, however, be enough families who don't mind condo living -- or who are willing to give neighborhoods like Shepherd Park and Takoma a chance -- to continue the District's revitalization. I think it'd be continuing even if everyone's favorite 80s mayor got elected.

[robbobobbo]

Half? No. Significant numbers? No.

The perception of many NOVAns has been, and remains that DC is not suitable for living, whether due to crime, schools, crowdedness, or other issues found in many cities. Many (not all) of the people moving to the region for jobs are also of a "city bad" bent, especially if they move here from less diverse parts of the US.

And a lot who come from other countries where urban life and crowded conditions are the norm head straight for the American dream of detached house and big yard, out in the suburbs, once they get here. I think the Ffx Co school reputation plays a part as well. Where do the Asian immigrants to DC metro go? Houses in the suburbs, not in the District. And not even Arlington or Alexandria; they go to where you get more house for the money, like Chantilly, Lorton, Centerville, McLean (and because of the schools' reputations).

While certain dangerous or run-down neighborhoods in DC have been turned around in the recent past, plenty of places in DC have been safe and desirable for a long time. I don't see the situation as "pioneer days" as if wild DC is being tamed by risk-takers moving in.

[cdmurphy]

I lived there in college, but I wouldn't do it again. The city has made great strides in recent years, but the government is broken. I also want my full representation in Congress.

[normie]

The changes in DC are nice to see. But will this draw a huge portion of kids from Nova? I doubt it, because as crime levels go down to a level that people might want to start "pouring in", the rents become much more expensive.

Personally, I wish it wasn't so. I'd like to see the 20-somethings concentrate in DC, and then gradually move out to the burbs as they hit their 30s. But young people on a tight budget have to live where rents are lowest, even if that means living in the dreaded burbs.

[normie]

Originally Posted by robbobobbo

And a lot who come from other countries where urban life and crowded conditions are the norm head straight for the American dream of detached house and big yard, out in the suburbs,

This is an excellent point. People sometimes forget how much of the population here come from other countries.

[normie]

Originally Posted by perries

What michgc said. But the changes has been remarkable, as ChristineVA notes. My sister lived on the Hill on 8th St NE off Mass Ave. in the mid-90s and there were murders down the street, her guests' cars were broken in to regularly, and it was a huge hike to the nearest grocery store.

Yup. And this wasn't just in the 90s, it's always been part of life in the densely packed urban areas.

Back in the dinosaur era when I was young I lived with a bunch of other kids near Eastern Market. We had a few mildly scary things happen and then one night I got mugged on my front door step on the way home from the store. The next day my aunt insisted I move in with her--out in the horrible suburbs. It's hard to believe now that I was actually bummed out that I would have to go to such an "uncool" place (until I spent some time there and found out the burbs were a lot nicer than I thought).