If 'urban pioneers' succeed in DC, would half of NOVA pour in? (Arlington: cul-de-sac, apartments)

[normie]

It sounds like the general answer to the OP's question is "no."

I'm sure there are some people who live in Nova because they can't afford DC, but (IMO) that's a small percentage of people. I like DC--to visit--and you won't hear any DC bashing from me. At the same time, I prefer to live in Nova. Nova isn't a second class citizen. It's not "Plan B," it's where we live by choice. Even if this "urban pioneer" movement succeeded, what we have here is pretty good, so why give that up?

[JD984]

Originally Posted by South Jersey Styx

Good point. I don't understand how "pioneers" was being used here either. These supposed uncharted areas have been inhabited by many families who have lived there for generations.

The OP didn't coin the term. It's been used many times and objected to equally many times, but it's often used in this context (perhaps because no one's really sure whether the alternative term should be "gentrifiers," "gentrifyers," or "urban intelopers").

The subtext, of course, is that, given half a chance, people would flee their ugly suburban dwellings for denser, older housing with charm and period details. Some folks would, but the numbers are probably smaller than the OP would like to think, given all the other factors to consider. I lived in a 1920s rowhouse in DC for the better part of a decade and while, yes, having nifty bay windows and a short commute were neat, lousy public schools, neighbors who looked for excuses to park their kids with you so they could party, and having our car broken into repeatedly (once, to steal a bag with dirty diapers, no less) were not.

Things can, and do, change. There are plenty of places in DC that, by most objective measures, are in much better shape than they were 25 years ago. There are also plenty of places that haven't made much progress, and that still keeps many people with options out of the cities.

[stpickrell]

Originally Posted by ACWhite

Take a look at this crime map of one of the deluxe zipcodes (20016), showing crimes in the past 14 days alone. The area west of RCP is not free of crime by any stretch, though your feeling of "safe" probably depends whether you were one who was hit. But look at the area to the east -- Dupont, Adams Morgan, etc., all considered desirable. The number of reported crime incidents is so dense there you can barely sort them out. And I know people who live in 20016 who say they wouldn't even bother to report minor crimes, so consider how many incidents aren't on the map.

Search CrimeReports.com

I found it shocking. I thought more progress had been made at least in the wealthier areas.

Most are obviously property crimes in this privileged part of the city, but if you have ever been victimized by a burglary while you are at home (I have, in another city, multiple times), you know that the crime can escalate.

I'm looking at your map -- 20012 is pretty bad by Rockville standards, but it seems worse right across the line in Silver Spring, whose name I could barely see through all the little colored boxes.

Ironically it seems the middle-class parts near the top of DC (the areas I was thinking of) are safer than the parts to the north and south (of Missouri Avenue), although I don't know how much of that is population density.

[CAVA1990]

I think young people will. You'll probably see more of a shift from the Clarendon/Crystal City crowds than from those in the Leave it to Beaver areas.

[Stephen 81]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

I think young people will. You'll probably see more of a shift from the Clarendon/Crystal City crowds than from those in the Leave it to Beaver areas.

But a lot of people in their twenties specifically chose Clarendon/Crystal City over DC. There are tons of vibrant neighborhoods with a lot of people in their twenties in the District, but for a number of reasons, some people chose to move to VA instead.

I know I would have preferred living in the District, but my commute from Arlington is bad enough as it is. Tacking on another 20 minutes each way would have made it unbearable. Until young people stop working in Tysons and Reston, places like Arlington will remain popular with the out of college set.

[normie]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

I think young people will. You'll probably see more of a shift from the Clarendon/Crystal City crowds than from those in the Leave it to Beaver areas.

So when is all this supposed to happen? In the next year or so? Or, maybe ten years from now? Is it something we can watch happen, and maybe track? (Sorry to be uninformed but, as I've noted before, DC's issues aren't something I pay much attention to, since I don't feel connected to that city.)

If this is going to happen another decade from now, another factor may become important. Instead of moving to gentrified parts of DC, I predict more of an exodus from Clarendon to other states once the economy starts improving. Twenty-somethings are a transitional bunch, and (IMO) once the economy gets better they'll be flocking to the west coast or other "cool" places just to see what they missed out on during the years they came here for a job.

[normie]

LOL, this question is sort of like asking "If Lady Gaga suddenly became cheap, would you leave your wife?"

It's an intriguing thought... for a moment. She's certainly vibrant! But then the reality of a lifelong commitment to that vibrancy sinks in, and you realize your wife is so much more appealing. Plus Lady Gaga (and gentified neighborhoods) have a way of changing after a few years, and not always in a good way.

[terrence81]

Originally Posted by normie

It sounds like the general answer to the OP's question is "no."

I'm sure there are some people who live in Nova because they can't afford DC, but (IMO) that's a small percentage of people. I like DC--to visit--and you won't hear any DC bashing from me. At the same time, I prefer to live in Nova. Nova isn't a second class citizen. It's not "Plan B," it's where we live by choice. Even if this "urban pioneer" movement succeeded, what we have here is pretty good, so why give that up?

I agree. Not to mention there are over 2 million people in NoVA it would be physically impossible to fit an extra million in the District which covers a relatively small area.

As far as others' crime concerns. Well it is a city the higher crime stats in wealthy areas has more to do with density than anything else. In say...Burke or Ashburn there's a lower density in a given area so that's part of the less crime.

Originally Posted by Stephen 81

But a lot of people in their twenties specifically chose Clarendon/Crystal City over DC. There are tons of vibrant neighborhoods with a lot of people in their twenties in the District, but for a number of reasons, some people chose to move to VA instead.

I know I would have preferred living in the District, but my commute from Arlington is bad enough as it is. Tacking on another 20 minutes each way would have made it unbearable. Until young people stop working in Tysons and Reston, places like Arlington will remain popular with the out of college set.

I would love to get a place in the District specifically the Hill. I practically live there now since I spend at least 2 nights a week there. I'm not a fan of the 45 minute commute to work that I have on those days. But living in the District permanently? No. Why? Because I have a job in VA.

So I agree as long as there are career opportunities in VA then there will people who will be living in VA. I know of people who commute from DC to the Dulles area. There are people who even commute from PG county to Dulles. Those people get my sympathies. I'm learning that even when you try to live close to work things change. A year ago I would've killed to have a job in Fairfax and would have a 10 minute commute but times change and so do people. Arlington is a great place to dip one toe in the city but still keeping one's feet planted firmly in NoVA. But will admit that 66 is starting to wear on my nerves.

[FindingZen]

I agree that it would be physically impossible for half of NOVA to move into tiny DC...unless they rewrote the law about maximum building height so they could build rows upon rows of skyscrapers. But I do get the OP's point about an idea of a mass influx into DC by "urban pioneers". I've seen this happen in some parts of Philly. It's even happening in DC to a smaller extent.(Pardon me in advance if I happen to repeat any points since I haven't read every post.)

The "typical" pattern when a neighborhood gentrifies goes something like this:
1."Starving" Artists
2. Trendy Hipsters
3. Yuppie Professionals
4. Empty Nesters, i.e. older couples whose kids have flown the coop

One could say that 1) and possibly 2) are the "urban pioneers". The turning point will be with 3). If enough of them decide to get involved with the schools, neighborhood associations etc. - instead of the "usual" suburban departure to NOVA or MD - then that's when 4) may decide it's a worthy investment.

Oh yeah, and then there's still that "taxation without representation" thing.

IMO people at various stages of life decide that a denser, urban atmosphere is preferable. That could well happen even in NOVA if the above optimistic scenario fell into place. One mitigating factor may still be that the plurality if not the majority of job opportunities are here in VA; many may not feel it's worth the commute back over the Potomac, especially if they're driving.

[FindingZen]

Originally Posted by terrence81

I agree. Not to mention there are over 2 million people in NoVA it would be physically impossible to fit an extra million in the District which covers a relatively small area.

As far as others' crime concerns. Well it is a city the higher crime stats in wealthy areas has more to do with density than anything else. In say...Burke or Ashburn there's a lower density in a given area so that's part of the less crime.



I would love to get a place in the District specifically the Hill. I practically live there now since I spend at least 2 nights a week there. I'm not a fan of the 45 minute commute to work that I have on those days. But living in the District permanently? No. Why? Because I have a job in VA.

So I agree as long as there are career opportunities in VA then there will people who will be living in VA. I know of people who commute from DC to the Dulles area. There are people who even commute from PG county to Dulles. Those people get my sympathies. I'm learning that even when you try to live close to work things change. A year ago I would've killed to have a job in Fairfax and would have a 10 minute commute but times change and so do people. Arlington is a great place to dip one toe in the city but still keeping one's feet planted firmly in NoVA. But will admit that 66 is starting to wear on my nerves.

Ummm...basically what he said.