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It is funny reading these responses, I can tell right away who lives in Fairfax County, or another country that wasn't on the list or saw a drop.
Fair enough. I could tell right away who lived in Prince William by how he chose to caption the thread.
But seriously, if you'd told me 10 or 20 years ago that Prince William would ever have higher median incomes that Montgomery County, I would have been very surprised.
I take this as evidence that, at least for now, affluence is bifurcating in the region: Affluent "post-moderns" (singles, DINKs, etc. ) who are hostile to suburbs toward the main urban core, that is, DC and affluent "traditionals" (2-3 kids plus pets) to "new" suburbs or exurbs with a dash of walkability and space with increasingly plentiful amenities (restaurants, community activities), etc.
Meanwhile, the traditional first layer of suburbs is bleeding affluent people into opposite directions, depending on politico-cultural ideologies and lifestyles.
One caveat to keep in mind, as always, is that it is impossible, futile and even foolish to forecast long-term trends based on short-term trends. Lives of cities and regions can be pretty stochastic over long-term. So pronouncing "the death of suburbs" (or its opposite "the death of cities") is premature to say the least.
Meanwhile, the traditional first layer of suburbs is bleeding affluent people into opposite directions, depending on politico-cultural ideologies and lifestyles.
That may be happening in other places, even MOCO for example, but I'm not seeing that here in NoVA. Proximity to jobs and horrific commutes from the outer suburbs have kept the inner neighborhoods still very attractive. My area of Mount Vernon for example is a very easy commute to the Pentagon, DC and Fort Belvoir and we've seen almost nobody move out other than to retirement communities. People moving in are generally the same level of affluence as those who've left, albeit younger and often with small children.
Yea sorry ILD, I saw your other post too, and while a small portion of people in LoCo might be employed locally, and some people who live in inner suburbs do go further out when they get older, the current trend shows a collapse back towards cities. If anything the exurban and suburban experience has been a blip in the human nature over the past 5000 years of civilization. For 50 years subsidized cheap gas, gave us mobility to live wherever, now with higher gas, and improper land use peoples lives are becoming more difficult further from work zones.
Did DC spur off several sub cities? Yes, which is unique to federal historic cities due to density and height restraints causing too expensive lease rates forcing companies to outlying regions. However, those should now be viewed as micro cities in their own respect. The trend will continue, people will collapse back to Reston/Herndon, Tysons, Fairfax, Arlington, Bethesda, Rockville, and of course DC.
Statistically this is being proven over the past 5 years and will likely be the new normal. We'll see though, if gas suddenly goes back to 2 dollars because scientists discover that jesus put a special infinite stash for us then I suppose people will continue to always spread further and further from cities :P
I take this as evidence that, at least for now, affluence is bifurcating in the region: Affluent "post-moderns" (singles, DINKs, etc. ) who are hostile to suburbs toward the main urban core, that is, DC and affluent "traditionals" (2-3 kids plus pets) to "new" suburbs or exurbs with a dash of walkability and space with increasingly plentiful amenities (restaurants, community activities), etc.
Meanwhile, the traditional first layer of suburbs is bleeding affluent people into opposite directions, depending on politico-cultural ideologies and lifestyles.
One caveat to keep in mind, as always, is that it is impossible, futile and even foolish to forecast long-term trends based on short-term trends. Lives of cities and regions can be pretty stochastic over long-term. So pronouncing "the death of suburbs" (or its opposite "the death of cities") is premature to say the least.
Nothing gives a quant away like using the term "stochastic" (nice to see you back, ILD!).
I mostly agree with this, except that I think that:
- people who are moving towards the "main urban core" are a mix of people who are overtly hostile to car-dependent suburbs (you can tell these types by the frequency with which they refer to Ashburn as a proxy for every suburb, and with which they refer to Applebee's as a proxy for every dining establishment, west of Arlington, Tyler Cowan's odes to Annandale and Sterling dining notwithstanding) and those who simply prefer more walkable areas but actually aren't opposed to people having residential choices;
- the "main urban core" in this region includes more than DC (including, for example, Alexandria and Arlington, in NoVa); and
- the affluent "traditionalists" are not simply heading to the "new suburbs" or "exurbs" but, in many cases, deciding that they can have their cake and eat it, too, by buying old properties and building new homes in some of the more walkable parts of the older suburbs (for example, Bethesda, Arlington, the town of Vienna, Central McLean, and pockets of Falls Church). Having said that, it seems like, at least at a county-wide level, the number of affluent "traditionalists" able to do this is being exceeded by the number of less affluent newcomers buying unrenovated older properties in counties like Montgomery and Fairfax. This makes it almost inevitable that, for some period to come, MoCo and Fairfax are going to continue to slip in terms of local metrics such as median incomes, and eventually will start to slip in terms of student test scores. This will be a hard pill for some to swallow (who would have thought that Montgomery County, which defined affluence in this region in the 1960s and 1970s, would ever have lower median incomes than Prince William County), but I can't see that trend changing soon unless some of the scenarios that Tysonsengineer regularly suggests will come to pass unfold much quicker than most of us might anticipate.
That may be happening in other places, even MOCO for example, but I'm not seeing that here in NoVA. Proximity to jobs and horrific commutes from the outer suburbs have kept the inner neighborhoods still very attractive. My area of Mount Vernon for example is a very easy commute to the Pentagon, DC and Fort Belvoir and we've seen almost nobody move out other than to retirement communities. People moving in are generally the same level of affluence as those who've left, albeit younger and often with small children.
I think the term "bleeding" as used by ILD refers to the net result and it seems clear (at least looking at the percentages of students in the local schools receiving free and reduced lunches) that, in recent years, whether due to the recession or other factors, the Mount Vernon area of Fairfax has increasing poverty. It still has advantages over many other places in terms of location and historical significance, and affluent people surely continue to move to some neighborhoods in the area. But, if you compare Mount Vernon to areas in, say, Central Arlington where the stats have been moving in the opposite direction over the same period, it's pretty obvious that the Route 1 corredor has some challenges.
- the affluent "traditionalists" are not simply heading to the "new suburbs" or "exurbs" but, in many cases, deciding that they can have their cake and eat it, too, by buying old properties and building new homes in some of the more walkable parts of the older suburbs (for example, Bethesda, the town of Vienna, Central McLean, and pockets of Falls Church). Having said that, it seems like, at least at a county-wide level, the number of affluent "traditionalists" able to do this is being exceeded by the number of less affluent newcomers buying unrenovated older properties in counties like Montgomery and Fairfax. This makes it almost inevitable that, for some period to come, MoCo and Fairfax are going to continue to slip in terms of local metrics such as median incomes, and eventually will start to slip in terms of student test scores.
You have a very good point. From the SAT scores in recent years, one can see that Fairfax has both the highest and lowest score distributions compared to Loudoun. Personally, I know dozens of people who moved or plan to move from Loudoun (esp. Ashburn area) back to Fairfax. But the only areas they are interested are those with excellent schools (Langley, Mclean, Woodson, Madison, and Oakton). Many of them had to settle with a smaller home or purchase an old home for teardown and rebuild in the affluent areas of Fairfax county. If they can not find a property within their budget in the good school districts, they would rather stay in Loudoun versus moving to the other areas of Fairfax.
You have a very good point. From the SAT scores in recent years, one can see that Fairfax has both the highest and lowest score distributions compared to Loudoun. Personally, I know dozens of people who moved or plan to move from Loudoun (esp. Ashburn area) back to Fairfax. But the only areas they are interested are those with excellent schools (Langley, Mclean, Woodson, Madison, and Oakton). Many of them had to settle with a smaller home or purchase an old home for teardown and rebuild in the affluent areas of Fairfax county. If they can not find a property within their budget in the good school districts, they would rather stay in Loudoun versus moving to the other areas of Fairfax.
To round this out, in recent years, Marshall, Lake Braddock and Robinson in Fairfax have had higher SAT scores than the top Loudoun school (Stone Bridge), and Park View has had lower scores than any Fairfax school. But generally, the Loudoun schools have been tightly bunched in the middle, and I'd expect to see some move up in the local rankings over the next few years. The fact that Loudoun schools are newer, have fewer low-income students than many Fairfax schools, and have smaller enrollments than some of the big Fairfax schools like Westfield might all be seen as positives for those who are already inclined to go with an outer-suburban/ex-urban lifestyle (conversely, those who prefer living closer-in will frequently state that the diversity of their schools was a positive factor in their analysis).
Nothing gives a quant away like using the term "stochastic" (nice to see you back, ILD!).
I protest, Sir! I never peddled deterministic models and was always considered too friendly to random walk to be considered a proper quant.
But thank you for the welcome back. Now that my kids are off for the summer (from home schooling) I have more time to waste online.
Quote:
I mostly agree with this, except that I think that:
- people who are moving towards the "main urban core" are a mix of people who are overtly hostile to car-dependent suburbs (you can tell these types by the frequency with which they refer to Ashburn as a proxy for every suburb, and with which they refer to Applebee's as a proxy for every dining establishment, west of Arlington, Tyler Cowan's odes to Annandale and Sterling dining notwithstanding) and those who simply prefer more walkable areas but actually aren't opposed to people having residential choices;
- the "main urban core" in this region includes more than DC (including, for example, Alexandria and Arlington, in NoVa); and
- the affluent "traditionalists" are not simply heading to the "new suburbs" or "exurbs" but, in many cases, deciding that they can have their cake and eat it, too, by buying old properties and building new homes in some of the more walkable parts of the older suburbs (for example, Bethesda, Arlington, the town of Vienna, Central McLean, and pockets of Falls Church). Having said that, it seems like, at least at a county-wide level, the number of affluent "traditionalists" able to do this is being exceeded by the number of less affluent newcomers buying unrenovated older properties in counties like Montgomery and Fairfax. This makes it almost inevitable that, for some period to come, MoCo and Fairfax are going to continue to slip in terms of local metrics such as median incomes, and eventually will start to slip in terms of student test scores. This will be a hard pill for some to swallow (who would have thought that Montgomery County, which defined affluence in this region in the 1960s and 1970s, would ever have lower median incomes than Prince William County), but I can't see that trend changing soon unless some of the scenarios that Tysonsengineer regularly suggests will come to pass unfold much quicker than most of us might anticipate.
I agree with ALL of this.
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